Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[nine]

Hmmm. An interesting claim. How about the first five for us peasants?

 

[Depth Trade]

Please take no offence.

This Strat. will never work because it is constantly positoning you in a trade that will never be duplicated exactly the same. < Which is needed in order to gauge probability.

Even if one was able to quantify all accociated Global variables, one would need to be able to take the exact trade at the same exact price.

This isn't even taking into account that MA price is meaningless, The whole reason price moves is because there is a discrepancy in price and reality.

That's the Paradox, price does not represent Actual Value.

Your watching MAs that don't represent price, if it did one could just 'do what it is doing' and make money.

IE, go long if it's moving up, short if it's going down.


Trading currency is about 100x harder than this Strat. represents.


DT

 

[Depth Trade]

Not only that, but at best this strat. would barley eek out a gain longterm, even if you had it automated, but if it was automated Others would start using it and the strat. would become flat..

.. so this leaves one having to trade it manually, which in it's self will physically wear one out.


DT

 

[nine]

No offence taken.

It's good that you don't believe that it will work. The moment a strategy is found that everyone believes will work is the moment it's likely to start its slide into oblivion.

The other thing required for a strategy to slide into oblivion is that people find it easy to implement so some believable strategies continue to perform because people don't seem to be able to follow them, which may have a little to do with the high trader failure stats so often quoted.

On a related matter, Captain Currency often points out that he applies his price action knowledge to the resulting signals. I know this will trouble many newer traders and I think the patterns discussed in this thread might help them.

Cheers

 

[ampro]

.. so this leaves one having to trade it manually, which in it's self will physically wear one out.

Well, blow me down! You mean these guy’s are gonna have to actually do some work with this gig?

Dang...can’t have that, trading isn’t supposed to involve using one’s brain is it?

Discretionary, manual price action observation is a non-starter.

Close this thread immediately Captain, & sprint to the nearest mechanical shop.



No offense meant.

 

[TheBramble]

This Strat. will never work because it is constantly positoning you in a trade that will never be duplicated exactly the same. < Which is needed in order to gauge probability.

I disagree. The rules stated position you exactly the same each time – if you follow it to the letter. Not that I’m suggesting anyone does (not my call), but if they choose to, it’s the same setup each and every time. Don’t forget, MA-X is one of the few time-tested methods that have proven to provide profits over the long term. And this is an MA-X system. It’s a 60 SMA with 1 SMA (the price). Your probability of any system is a function of your historic results.

Even if one was able to quantify all accociated Global variables, one would need to be able to take the exact trade at the same exact price.

Either I’m missing something or you are. All the ‘global variables’ are already in the price. I have no idea what you mean by ‘exact trade at the same exact price’.

This isn't even taking into account that MA price is meaningless, The whole reason price moves is because there is a discrepancy in price and reality.

’Discrepancy in price reality’ – whoa! Prices move because there is a difference in opinion between traders on current ‘value’ and therefore, future prospects. The reality is created by these opinions. There’s nothing more real than the current Bid & Offer.

That's the Paradox, price does not represent Actual Value.

It’s not a paradox. It’s a dichotomy. Price/Value. Price is Real; Value is Imaginary. E.G. Selling Cable at 2.0375 is real. You’ve bought at that level. Your valuation of it being worth much less later is imaginary – you’ll find out just how imaginary it is if it isn’t worth less later.

Your watching MAs that don't represent price, if it did one could just 'do what it is doing' and make money.

IE, go long if it's moving up, short if it's going down.

I’m not sure you’re right there. In that most longer term systems effectively embrace, in essence, precisely that approach.

Trading currency is about 100x harder than this Strat. represents.

I guess you could make it harder if you wanted, but why would you try? This is just one strat from one person.

 

[BSD]

Super post, Tony, I totally agree.

As I've said earlier, I absolutely believe that trading is simple, although it's not easy because the rules can be pretty hard to follow at times.

The only ways I can think of how to make money trading are the following:

1: You can do a fundamental Jim Rogers type of approach where you say that oil is a limited commodity with strongly growing consumption so demand & supply 101 say that prices are going up.

A great strategy, but you need a clever head and lots of patience and lots of stamina watching price doing it's irrational thing until it catches up with logic.

2: You can do what I do or what the Captain here is doing, keep it simple and robust, believing that the only thing you can know about markets is that when prices go up they go up and when they go down they go down, and try and cash in on that by methods like buying breakouts confirmed by various time frames & moving averages etc...

You'll have lots more losers than winners like this, but the upside is that you only need to be right one third of the time if on average your winners are 3 times the size of your losers and you'll still be net profitable and way ahead of the competition !

Not bad, eh ?

3: Reversion to mean trading, that is you buy support and sell resistance in whatever technical way you define that, eg pure price or bollinger bands etc. Here you'll probably have more winners than losers by having larger stop losses than winners.

Good for people who have a psychological need to be right. Not putting that down at all, just saying that you need to find out what works for you !

4: Spread trading, that is going long one instrument while shorting a related one, because you believe that they've drifted too far apart from what they usually do.

Probably needs lots of computing power to catch up or, again, a clever mind.

5: Buying lots of computing power and even more quants who find out what markets do most of the time when the Japanese emperor hiccups...

Can't think of any other way to make money trading, but, to be honest, none of that is real mega rocket science, is it ?

The biggest breakthrough for me was grasping that no analysis helps when one big order enters the market pushing price away from what you had deduced should be happening next, and when I understood and learned to act on the idea that being wrong most of the time is fine, provided you follow that old cliche, limiting your losses while letting your winners run !

 

[chump]

"Can't think of any other way to make money trading"....you have four out of 7 whatevers....you want a fifth cheaper than ask...you signpost the 4 for sale and knock the ask down ..buy the ask and take the signpost off the 4 you already hold... I did this with properties once...but it applies to virtually anything..think about FX and see if you can see where it is being applied collectively ....buying and selling is all about people and their behaviour...winning strategies are based upon that ,even when the people applying them don't actually understand the behaviour underneath.

 

[Captain Currency]

I don't see the pips.

I can give you 10 reasons this Strat. will never make money.


DT

Hello Depth,

I use this "system" or guide as I prefere to call it, in addition to my own market knowledge. I'm fairly handy with MM - bet size, RvR etc etc. I've been trading the Fx market for a little while now and even longer on the ISEQ (Irish stock market)
So what I trying to say in a PC way is "I have a good idea of what I'm doing"

Dont take this the wrong way, you comments are welcomed & its hard to offend me.
Can you give me 10 reasons why "I" will never make money using the above strat with the extra bits I've added on in the end?

Your comment is your opinion, I dont personally share it.
For someone to make a broad comment like that without seeing what I do and how I do it - just does'nt cut the mustard with me.

Your reply will probably be " I was talking about the system, not you"
I have always said from day 1 - make the system your own ie stops, targets, pairs, mm etc and use it in addition to your own market knowledge.

For someone to take a "system" like this and try to automate it would be daft IMO
Why give away that big advantage or edge I have ie my mind/brain.

As always these are just my opinions, thanks to Depth for posting, now I'm really fired up for NFP!

Kind Regards,

 

[BSD]

"you have four out of 7 whatevers....you want a fifth cheaper than ask...you signpost the 4 for sale and knock the ask down ..buy the ask and take the signpost off the 4 you already hold... I did this with properties once...but it applies to virtually anything..

Good

 

[Captain Currency]

Trading currency is about 100x harder than this Strat. represents.


DT

Hello again Depth,

Of course it easier to read about a system than to actually trade it day to day. I often wonder why there are so many overweight people in the world even though there are 1000's on books on diet & excerise. (no offence to OW ppl)

You gotta put some work in!


Kind Regards,

 

[TheBramble]

"Can't think of any other way to make money trading"....you have four out of 7 whatevers....you want a fifth cheaper than ask...you signpost the 4 for sale and knock the ask down ..buy the ask and take the signpost off the 4 you already hold... I did this with properties once...but it applies to virtually anything..think about FX and see if you can see where it is being applied collectively ....buying and selling is all about people and their behaviour...winning strategies are based upon that ,even when the people applying them don't actually understand the behaviour underneath.

This ties in nicely with the current 'Flipping' thread. Chump, were you once the Paul Rotter of the property world?

 

[Depth Trade]

I disagree. The rules stated position you exactly the same each time – if you follow it to the letter. Not that I’m suggesting anyone does (not my call), but if they choose to, it’s the same setup each and every time. Don’t forget, MA-X is one of the few time-tested methods that have proven to provide profits over the long term. And this is an MA-X system. It’s a 60 SMA with 1 SMA (the price). Your probability of any system is a function of your historic results.

Either I’m missing something or you are. All the ‘global variables’ are already in the price. I have no idea what you mean by ‘exact trade at the same exact price’.

’Discrepancy in price reality’ – whoa! Prices move because there is a difference in opinion between traders on current ‘value’ and therefore, future prospects. The reality is created by these opinions. There’s nothing more real than the current Bid & Offer.

It’s not a paradox. It’s a dichotomy. Price/Value. Price is Real; Value is Imaginary. E.G. Selling Cable at 2.0375 is real. You’ve bought at that level. Your valuation of it being worth much less later is imaginary – you’ll find out just how imaginary it is if it isn’t worth less later.

I’m not sure you’re right there. In that most longer term systems effectively embrace, in essence, precisely that approach.


I guess you could make it harder if you wanted, but why would you try? This is just one strat from one person.

If you think price represents actual value, you have no idea what your doing and will never profit in the currency markets.


That simple.


DT

 

[Depth Trade]

Hello Depth,

I use this "system" or guide as I prefere to call it, in addition to my own market knowledge. I'm fairly handy with MM - bet size, RvR etc etc. I've been trading the Fx market for a little while now and even longer on the ISEQ (Irish stock market)
So what I trying to say in a PC way is "I have a good idea of what I'm doing"

Dont take this the wrong way, you comments are welcomed & its hard to offend me.
Can you give me 10 reasons why "I" will never make money using the above strat with the extra bits I've added on in the end?

Your comment is your opinion, I dont personally share it.
For someone to make a broad comment like that without seeing what I do and how I do it - just does'nt cut the mustard with me.

Your reply will probably be " I was talking about the system, not you"
I have always said from day 1 - make the system your own ie stops, targets, pairs, mm etc and use it in addition to your own market knowledge.

For someone to take a "system" like this and try to automate it would be daft IMO
Why give away that big advantage or edge I have ie my mind/brain.

As always these are just my opinions, thanks to Depth for posting, now I'm really fired up for NFP!

Kind Regards,

"For someone to make a broad comment like that without seeing what I do and how I do it"

I can see exactly how and why your positioning your simple strategy.

Childs Play

Captain, I don't have any ill-feelings towards you. You just don't know what your doing and have over-estimated yourself, that's all. No hard feeling

You even now stating that you use other 'market knowledge'

All this does is then put us in trades that we don't even know the 'structure' of or why we're Really in the position.

And if we don't have all the Market Knowledge, your actually setting one up for some major losses, because they won't be able to trade out the Strat. because it does not exist in full.


DT

 

[TheBramble]

If you think price represents actual value, you have no idea what your doing and will never profit in the currency markets.

Very true.

Just as well I detailed so clearly, though obviously not clearly enough for some, the significance of the difference between those two terms in that post of mine you quote. Presumably you didn’t find time to read my post before quoting it or you would have realised just how different I consider these two entities to be.

Another facet I consider vitally important in trading the markets, FX included, is the ability to review information presented and make a truly informed and educated decision on that specifically, rather than anything vague and unformed that may be swirling around in my head at the time and be based on a projection rather than a reality.

 

[Depth Trade]

Either I’m missing something or you are. All the ‘global variables’ are already in the price. I have no idea what you mean by ‘exact trade at the same exact price’.

’Discrepancy in price reality’ – whoa! Prices move because there is a difference in opinion between traders on current ‘value’ and therefore, future prospects. The reality is created by these opinions. There’s nothing more real than the current Bid & Offer.

It’s not a paradox. It’s a dichotomy. Price/Value. Price is Real; Value is Imaginary.

Hello again Bramble

I guess your missing something. Global variables are not priced in, because they trade separatley. There are traders taking on huge positions in all markets and there not calculating the accociations with each other, hence the discreptancies.

as for "exact same price at exact same time", at the very least one needs this to judge there probability. The last thing you want is to be jumping on 'new cycles'.


"Value is Imaginary"
You couldn't be more wrong.

price is nothing, paper is nothing.

Commodities, hard assetts.

It all comes down to the value of these idems and there accociation with the currency at hand.


DT

 

[Captain Currency]

Captain, I don't have any ill-feelings towards you. You just don't know what your doing and have over-estimated yourself, that's all. No hard feeling

Hello again Depth

Ehhhhhh OK, next time I crash my car into someone elses I'm going to say "NO HARD FEELING" & drive off.

You seem like an intelligent person from your profile, answer me this,
1) how does one over-estimate themselves?
2) How do you know what I'm doing? ("I can see exactly how and why your positioning your simple strategy")
Can you see what trades I put on today? without insulting your intelligences I would reckon your answer is no to the latter. I've already said a million times before that I use this system in addition to my own market knowledge. Let me just clarify what I mean by market knowledge Market knowledge to ME means - current price, news releases, figures, other markets that can have an impact on the currency Im trading, what time in the day is it? (the grave yard shift) etc.

Depth, I've no problem answering posts and Im well able to defend my actions as a trader and a person, but rather than losing sight of the main topic and having pops at each other (no hard feelings!) & saying "This wont work etc" - I would say if YOU dont think it will work, then dont do it. Its a bit like a TV channel, if you dont like whats on switch over. I've heard all you points, some are not creditable and some are just your own opinion, which lets call a spade a spade - opinions are like asshole, everybody has one - no offence.

Kind Regards,

 

[BSD]

Richard Dennis turned a meager several hundred US Dollars into several hundred million through in essence buying when price goes up and shorting when it goes down.

Mark B. Fisher, another hugely successful trader, has a strategy in his book, The Logical Trader, that he calls the kindergarten trader, where you look at the slopes of three moving averages, going long when all three are up, vice versa for going short, and taking profits when the shortest MA turns flat.

http://www.amazon.com/Logical-Trader-Mark-B-Fisher/dp/0471215511

Beautiful, very simple and profitable.

 

[Captain Currency]

Hello Depth,

You have come to the table and informed us all that this will not work.
I would invite you to come up with a solution to help us all with our trading. If you can write it down and post it on the T2W forum that would be brill.

Im a firm believer in solving problems and getting the best out of something.
Its too easy to say "this wont work" without having a solution or an idea.

Im not trying to call your bluff here, Im simply asking you to contribute a solution or an idea.

Kind Regards,

 

[TheBramble]

I guess your missing something. Global variables are not priced in, because they trade separatley. There are traders taking on huge positions in all markets and there not calculating the accociations with each other, hence the discreptancies.

Must be a day for non-comprehension. I'm throwing your stuff back at you and even you don't understand it.

Everything that you think you know about the current price of any instrument is already ‘in’ that instrument. Global or local variables are what help individual traders’ develop their perceptions of potential future ‘value’. You can’t calculate what your position or anybody else’s position is or how they’re going to interact with each other. Too many players and too much money.

You’re trying to make this whole thing out to be way more complex than it really is – and I suspect I know why. More on this at the end.

as for "exact same price at exact same time", at the very least one needs this to judge there probability. The last thing you want is to be jumping on 'new cycles'.

I still don’t understand you. This is a problem – for you. Also more on this at the end.

"Value is Imaginary"
You couldn't be more wrong.

price is nothing, paper is nothing.

Then it’s pretty imaginary then…:idea:

Commodities, hard assetts.

It all comes down to the value of these idems and there accociation with the currency at hand.

Only if we’re talking ComDollars or AgroDollars and then it’s just another angle on the fundamentals e.g. oil prices impacting CAD and its inverse correlation with USD in that context.

This is the ‘more on this at the end bit’…

DT you’re a vendor of FX news sheets or advice or something. It’s your job to make it all more mystical, esoteric and incomprehensible. But here’s the thing…

If you want to entice folk into finding out more (a) drop the attitude (b) be comprehensible enough to let people know roughly what you’re talking about without giving the game away and (c) learn to use spelling and grammar correctly. It’s painful to read it for free, but it would be an insult for you to expect anyone to pay for it.

No offence either.