Ok this is where we could make a decision, we are 50 pips to the good on a 15-20 pip risk. The market is right at that support I showed on the 4hr chart earlier. We can either sell up and take profit now, or hold in the hope that the support will break. There is an FOMC meeting later which you might want to take account of. Personally, I am going to hold. I don't mind if this retraces back up to my entry. I'm spending a few pips to make many more back.
Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System
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The euro has started the slow grind upwards again, as it does nearly every afternoon (GMT) after America opens.
This trade got almost 90 pips up, having broken the 4 hr support I was talking about but is now hovering around the 60 mark, back above that support.
Where you close these trades is totally a personal preference. There would be nothing wrong with closing this trade as is, with around 1:4 risk v reward ratio and starting again afresh tomorrow. You could take half your position off, bank the profit, and run the rest. Its just a personal thing for me that I like to try to stretch them out as much as I can. Different strokes for different folks. I'm leaving it open for now anyway. If it gets stopped out at breakeven or a small loss I still count it as a successful trade.
My job is to open the trade in accordance with the 3 ducks rules and then minimise any loss arising from trades that are unsuccessful. The trend does the rest of the work.
Thanks for the recommend, minch.
Nigel
This trade got almost 90 pips up, having broken the 4 hr support I was talking about but is now hovering around the 60 mark, back above that support.
Where you close these trades is totally a personal preference. There would be nothing wrong with closing this trade as is, with around 1:4 risk v reward ratio and starting again afresh tomorrow. You could take half your position off, bank the profit, and run the rest. Its just a personal thing for me that I like to try to stretch them out as much as I can. Different strokes for different folks. I'm leaving it open for now anyway. If it gets stopped out at breakeven or a small loss I still count it as a successful trade.
My job is to open the trade in accordance with the 3 ducks rules and then minimise any loss arising from trades that are unsuccessful. The trend does the rest of the work.
Thanks for the recommend, minch.
Nigel
Final chart for today.
Looking at the other pairs I noted last week, Eur/Cad would have been a good trade today. Makes sense with the general "risk on" sentiment. I see the Dow is over 13,000 again, so any meaningful drop in Eur.Usd was going to be hard going.
Looks like the FOMC will either stick us into good profit territory later or get us stopped out at close to breakeven. I'm happy enough with that for today.
Good trading
Nigel
Looking at the other pairs I noted last week, Eur/Cad would have been a good trade today. Makes sense with the general "risk on" sentiment. I see the Dow is over 13,000 again, so any meaningful drop in Eur.Usd was going to be hard going.
Looks like the FOMC will either stick us into good profit territory later or get us stopped out at close to breakeven. I'm happy enough with that for today.
Good trading
Nigel
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Looks like the FOMC was kind to us, back to +70. I'd love to see a good strong run at that support again before the US close. That would set us up nicely for another fall tomorrow. Stop is tightened so it's just a matter of keeping an eye on it now.
Hiya NVP
Absolutely not, no, just me! I trade by myself, and as I said before, I don't know Andy. Sorry if I gave that impression! Andy and Andy alone is the 3 Ducks.
I hope people don't think I'm taking over this thread again. I've just managed over time to get my head around this strategy and I really think it's one of the best approach new traders can learn. I spent years reading forums and on the whole I think I learnt a lot (hidden in mountains of cr*p), so I thought I should log in here and try to give a few pointers where I can.
Contrary to most people's impressions, trading is a very lonely, boring pursuit. I think logging in here sometimes stops me going round the bend! If my posts help anyone that's a bonus.
Captain Currency
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I always enjoy reading Nigel's post and himself and the other active Duck Hunters give great help to the less experienced ones :clap: Thanks to them all, Andy.
Simple Market Scan
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days.
Wednesday March 14th 2012
Stay Safe
Mind yourself with the CHF pairs because there will be a rate statement out for this currency tomorrow (Thur).
Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3057, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5703, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break below the 1.5650 area is needed for the bears to be back in control.
Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8315, GBP is currently stronger than the EUR and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9268, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0477, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Usd.Cad – current spot price is 0.9933, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 83.36, Same as last week, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 108.90, still a bit neutral on this pair at the moment so no trade.
Hope that helps you.
Andy
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
InterJon
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Hi all, demo-ing the 3 ducks at the moment. Couple of questions:
1. Do you guys use alerts of any kind. If so, which services and are there any free ones? I assume your not constantly chart watching the M5?
2. Boring practical point but do you have 3 computer screens? Sandwiching 3 charts on one screen in MT4 makes my life difficult... any tips?
1. Do you guys use alerts of any kind. If so, which services and are there any free ones? I assume your not constantly chart watching the M5?
2. Boring practical point but do you have 3 computer screens? Sandwiching 3 charts on one screen in MT4 makes my life difficult... any tips?
Hi all, demo-ing the 3 ducks at the moment. Couple of questions:
1. Do you guys use alerts of any kind. If so, which services and are there any free ones? I assume your not constantly chart watching the M5?
2. Boring practical point but do you have 3 computer screens? Sandwiching 3 charts on one screen in MT4 makes my life difficult... any tips?
Hi InterJon, I have an mt4 alarm that sounds when price hits a line on my chart. You can also calibrate it to send you an email or an SMS. PM me your email address and I'll send it to you if you like.
Generally I just pick one or two pairs that I am interested in, mark a line where I would be interested in getting into the market at and then get on with other things. If you were busy at work or whatever you could set pending orders. I'm not a huge fan of pending orders myself, although they do work well for some people. I have a nice big screen myself but I don't think it's vital, it's certainly not going to be the difference between profit and loss. I suppose it's a case of finding what suits you best individually.
A broader more important point might be that traders shouldn't get upset if they miss a trade. You don't have to be in the market all the time and there will always be another trade opportunity just around the corner. In fact, you will find over time that if you take a day here and there out of trading your results most likely will actually improve. The biggest equity declines come on the days/weeks when you try to force a trade that simply isn't there. The pips lost during these episodes, when traders often become emotional, start chasing losses etc often far outweigh the pips forgone on the trade that worked out but you missed because you were away from your computer. Something to ponder anyway.
Nigel
InterJon
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Thanks Nigel
I'll try out the MT4 alarms. I've never managed to get the texts working, only the emails but I'll have a look and see what I can work out.
Can't say I'm a huge fan of pending orders either, but I'll have a tinker with that too.
Demo-ing saves me a lot of money
I'll try out the MT4 alarms. I've never managed to get the texts working, only the emails but I'll have a look and see what I can work out.
Can't say I'm a huge fan of pending orders either, but I'll have a tinker with that too.
Demo-ing saves me a lot of money
Captain Currency
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Happy St. Patricks Day Duck Hunters.
Andy
Andy
Hi. Since I was posting earlier on in the week I thought it might be of use to post a review of this week's trades.
The week started off well but deteriorated towards the end. The Euro short was a bright spot and I also bagged some pips on a Nzd short. I closed the second portion of the Euro trade I was posting about because I was very uncomfortable about its inability to make any proper progress to the downside. Turned out to be the right choice. Things weren't so good today as I have been trying to short Eur/Gbp and it has been chopping around horribly (chart below).
The week ended 205 pips in profit which is by no means a poor week but not fantastic either. I have remained well disciplined and have traded in accordance with my rules so in that sense the week was a success. Overall the week yielded 1.9% return on my account. Usually I would be looking for a but more than that, but at least it is not a loss. Keeping losses small is absolutely vital in my opinion and so I am glad to note that my average loss was 10.3 pips.
A lot of the trends that I have been monitoring have been dealt significant damage today, so early next week at least might be a case of watching and waiting to see if the bears reassert themselves or whether we are seeing a 4 hr trend change materialising. I wouldn't be surprised to see the euro, aussie, kiwi turning around to the upside against the US dollar, as stocks have been on an absolute tear this week, crazy as it sounds. As I was saying earlier in the week, I don't question why the market is doing what it is doing, I am just looking to join in.
Hope my input this week has helped some readers who are trading this method. I'll probably step back a bit from dominating this thread now for a while. One final tip, there are a number of services available which link to your account and allow you to analyse your results in great detail. I find using them very beneficial. I'm not going to mention any here but I'm sure you know what I am talking about.
Have a good St Patrick's weekend. I am looking forward to watching the rugby over a few pints of plain tomorrow.
Good trading
Nigel
The week started off well but deteriorated towards the end. The Euro short was a bright spot and I also bagged some pips on a Nzd short. I closed the second portion of the Euro trade I was posting about because I was very uncomfortable about its inability to make any proper progress to the downside. Turned out to be the right choice. Things weren't so good today as I have been trying to short Eur/Gbp and it has been chopping around horribly (chart below).
The week ended 205 pips in profit which is by no means a poor week but not fantastic either. I have remained well disciplined and have traded in accordance with my rules so in that sense the week was a success. Overall the week yielded 1.9% return on my account. Usually I would be looking for a but more than that, but at least it is not a loss. Keeping losses small is absolutely vital in my opinion and so I am glad to note that my average loss was 10.3 pips.
A lot of the trends that I have been monitoring have been dealt significant damage today, so early next week at least might be a case of watching and waiting to see if the bears reassert themselves or whether we are seeing a 4 hr trend change materialising. I wouldn't be surprised to see the euro, aussie, kiwi turning around to the upside against the US dollar, as stocks have been on an absolute tear this week, crazy as it sounds. As I was saying earlier in the week, I don't question why the market is doing what it is doing, I am just looking to join in.
Hope my input this week has helped some readers who are trading this method. I'll probably step back a bit from dominating this thread now for a while. One final tip, there are a number of services available which link to your account and allow you to analyse your results in great detail. I find using them very beneficial. I'm not going to mention any here but I'm sure you know what I am talking about.
Have a good St Patrick's weekend. I am looking forward to watching the rugby over a few pints of plain tomorrow.
Good trading
Nigel
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I enjoy reading your posts on this thread & I'm sure I'm not in the minority either. They are informative, educational & well presented.
You're not dominating the thread at all, far from it. Please continue to share your views & thoughts regarding this terrific technical strategy.
I plan to join in the fun & hopefully contribute to the material presented.
Thank you for all your work so far & look forward to interacting with you & others on the thread.
InterJon
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As Alexander Elder put it: it's best to try to imagine that your boss
(however imaginary he may be) is coming back in a week and will judge your performance based on how closely you have kept to your rules as opposed to how many pips you have made. My boss is less imaginary.... the Mrs!
Been looking over a lot in this thread and I think Nigel does the 3 Ducks a great service with his posts. Thanks again. :clap: :clap: :clap:
Captain Currency
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Hello Guys,
Simple Market Scan
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days.
Wednesday March 21st 2012
Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3274, a bit of recent strength on the Euro lately and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. Above 1.3300 keeps the bulls happy.
Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5913, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8341, Euro and GBP are currently both strong at the moment so neither pair has any real advantage over the other so no trade on this pair at the moment.
Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9085, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break back above the 0.9180 area would get me neutral/bullish on this pair.
Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0513, Aussie Dollar is still under pressure to the downside and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Usd.Cad – current spot price is 0.9883, I would be neutral on this pair at the moment so sitting on my hands.
Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 83.75, same as the last few weeks - bullish and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 111.16, Euro is sticking the boot in against the JPY at the moment and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Hope that helps you.
Andy
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Simple Market Scan
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days.
Wednesday March 21st 2012
Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3274, a bit of recent strength on the Euro lately and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. Above 1.3300 keeps the bulls happy.
Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5913, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8341, Euro and GBP are currently both strong at the moment so neither pair has any real advantage over the other so no trade on this pair at the moment.
Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9085, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break back above the 0.9180 area would get me neutral/bullish on this pair.
Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0513, Aussie Dollar is still under pressure to the downside and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Usd.Cad – current spot price is 0.9883, I would be neutral on this pair at the moment so sitting on my hands.
Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 83.75, same as the last few weeks - bullish and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 111.16, Euro is sticking the boot in against the JPY at the moment and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Hope that helps you.
Andy
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NVP
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yep .........hes a credit to your training and the system
on another note shame about worldspreads....they've been around a while and were generally ok to deal with
such is life
N
Captain Currency
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Hello Duck Hunters,
Thought for Today
Your best trading months will be when you where patient.
Your worst trading months will be when you where impatient.
Patience Is A Core Trading Skill.
Simple Market Scan
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days, hopefully it will help you.
28th – 30th March 2012
Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3338, a strong couple of weeks for the Euro and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5922, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break back below the 1.5800 area would get me neutral on this pair.
Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8377, for a 3 Ducks trader this would not be one of the best pairs to be trading at the moment. Euro has a slight upper hand on the Pound at the moment but no real movement.
Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9036, same as last week, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break below the 0.9016 area keeps bears in control.
Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0407, Aussie Dollar is still feeling the heat, bears are eying up the 1.0335 area and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Usd.Cad – current spot price is 0.9966, I’m still neutral on this pair at the moment so sitting on my hands.
Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 83.02, the recent bullish pressure has softened a bit lately, but a break and hold above the 83.40 area would get me bullish again and looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 110.85, a decent trend lately and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Hope that helps you.
Keep it Simple,
Andy
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Thought for Today
Your best trading months will be when you where patient.
Your worst trading months will be when you where impatient.
Patience Is A Core Trading Skill.
Simple Market Scan
Below is my mid-week “Simple Market Scan” using The 3 Ducks Trading System and my preference for the next few days, hopefully it will help you.
28th – 30th March 2012
Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3338, a strong couple of weeks for the Euro and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5922, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break back below the 1.5800 area would get me neutral on this pair.
Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8377, for a 3 Ducks trader this would not be one of the best pairs to be trading at the moment. Euro has a slight upper hand on the Pound at the moment but no real movement.
Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9036, same as last week, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break below the 0.9016 area keeps bears in control.
Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0407, Aussie Dollar is still feeling the heat, bears are eying up the 1.0335 area and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Usd.Cad – current spot price is 0.9966, I’m still neutral on this pair at the moment so sitting on my hands.
Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 83.02, the recent bullish pressure has softened a bit lately, but a break and hold above the 83.40 area would get me bullish again and looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 110.85, a decent trend lately and I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.
Hope that helps you.
Keep it Simple,
Andy
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Hi, a good short 3 ducks trade on USD.NOK triggered this morning. I meant to post about it last night but unfortunately I was away from my computer. However, it is possible if nothing really unexpected occurs in the markets today we might get another bite at the cherry maybe early next week.
If the second trade triggers this afternoon (GMT) I would be a bit wary about taking it because liquidity drains away quickly on Friday European afternoons now. I would really have to play it by ear. If price has a bit of a spring in its step I might take it, but if it was just floating around as if it just had a few pints on a sunny Friday afternoon I would steer clear. I have found, really since the beginning of this year, that even during the week action in the US session is mainly confined to the low volume zero volatility melt up in risk assets we have been seeing.
It can be quite tricky to trade because price moves very slowly, just meandering gradually upward (or downward, depending on the currency pair). I am certainly finding that the best entries are occurring in the European session these days. I think Andy suggests between 7am and 4pm GMT which is absolutely spot on. Something to bear in mind perhaps.
I will be keeping an eye on this USD NOK set-up anyway. If I am in front of my screen when it triggers I will try to talk everyone through what I am doing.
Good trading everyone, have a nice weekend.
Nigel
If the second trade triggers this afternoon (GMT) I would be a bit wary about taking it because liquidity drains away quickly on Friday European afternoons now. I would really have to play it by ear. If price has a bit of a spring in its step I might take it, but if it was just floating around as if it just had a few pints on a sunny Friday afternoon I would steer clear. I have found, really since the beginning of this year, that even during the week action in the US session is mainly confined to the low volume zero volatility melt up in risk assets we have been seeing.
It can be quite tricky to trade because price moves very slowly, just meandering gradually upward (or downward, depending on the currency pair). I am certainly finding that the best entries are occurring in the European session these days. I think Andy suggests between 7am and 4pm GMT which is absolutely spot on. Something to bear in mind perhaps.
I will be keeping an eye on this USD NOK set-up anyway. If I am in front of my screen when it triggers I will try to talk everyone through what I am doing.
Good trading everyone, have a nice weekend.
Nigel
