The 3 Duck's Trading System

fayalac

Active member
May 3, 2008
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Yes the odds are with it.
I understand captain currency already answered that question, anyway what i would do is to keep on the position untill the price cross back the line, i dont like fib because it is extremelly relative and a cross between ma´s isnt really a measure of when to leave a position what is real is when an actual price crosses ( in any sense ) the proyection line (ma)
 
Dec 5, 2001
32
0
16
So your profit target is a MA? What value have you set it at? I wasn't suggesting a MA cross for the closing out of the trade just a close above/ below the 5 min 60 ma. Managing trades and maximizing the profit on them seems to be crucial in the ability to subsidies the losers that are an inevitable part of trading.
 

fayalac

Active member
May 3, 2008
560
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28
You are rigth but of course not, my target is not an MA.
I will always hold any position untill the actual price cross back the ma line, lets say we are into an uptrend, then the actual price is above the ma line (proyected price), these mean that prices are still rising up so i will hold the position, at the moment at which the proyected price goes above the actual price i will quit from that position, that would be because the the actual prices are under (decreasing).
I hope i was clear.
 

gedward3

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2005
925
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www.premierexpatmortgages.com
The question is are the odds with the initial break through the 60SMA on the 5 min? As you can see from the attached image the initial cross on the TF was at 22:55 yesterday with no further movements back and through the 60SMA. So is the best strategy to take the initial break and stay with it on the 5 min until there is a break back through the MA or trade the breaks of lower lows / higher highs using fib extension for targets?
73sand,

If you read the full thread you wouldnt be asking these questions.
Take a couple of hours 1 evening and read it all then you will answer
the questions for yourself.
 
Dec 5, 2001
32
0
16
Thanks for you wise word and help Gedwood . Lets hope the previous 187 pages contain more help than your pointless words . Maybe a lack of contribution to any comment that upsets you would make this thread less lightly to grow. How did the thread get to 188 pages without people asking questions ?

A WISE MAN KNOWS WHEN TO SPEAK AND WHEN TO STAY QUIET.

Is verbal diarrhoea the point of your contribution?
 

gedward3

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2005
925
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53
www.premierexpatmortgages.com
Thanks for you wise word and help Gedwood . Lets hope the previous 187 pages contain more help than your pointless words . Maybe a lack of contribution to any comment that upsets you would make this thread less lightly to grow. How did the thread get to 188 pages without people asking questions ?

A WISE MAN KNOWS WHEN TO SPEAK AND WHEN TO STAY QUIET.

Is verbal diarrhoea the point of your contribution?
Far from me being upset. The point was in helping you as these questions have all
been answered in the thread where there are valuable further
nuggets of information which would help with your trading.
You see we see people with a few posts who have orderered their red
Gordon Gecko braces but are yet to realise that a little work such
as reading a whole thread can pay dividends.

Crap I forgot the mandatory insult. Maybe next time......
 

lbranjord

Active member
May 7, 2008
453
15
28
Wisconsin
73sand,

If you read the full thread you wouldnt be asking these questions.
Take a couple of hours 1 evening and read it all then you will answer
the questions for yourself.
I would normally respond like you did, but in this case, the thread is a bit huge. As a newb I would have been guilty of 'cutting to the chase' and asking questions rather than sifting through it too. Just my 2 cents :)

EDIT: Wait, wait, wait, 73sand I didn't mean to call you a newb. Maybe you're not, just making a point so don't take it as a slam.
 

gedward3

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2005
925
116
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www.premierexpatmortgages.com
I would normally respond like you did, but in this case, the thread is a bit huge. As a newb I would have been guilty of 'cutting to the chase' and asking questions rather than sifting through it too. Just my 2 cents :)

EDIT: Wait, wait, wait, 73sand I didn't mean to call you a newb. Maybe you're not, just making a point so don't take it as a slam.

Didnt really think my reply was malicious just straight to the point.
 

NVP

Well-known member
Jun 21, 2004
35,786
1,732
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west sussex, UK
fxcorrelator.com
Hi all

I am re-reading this epic thread for about the third time in 2 years and each time more nuggets drop through so I heartily recommend it alongside CC's Free e-book (y)

meanwhile a dumb question to CC and his followers

is this used by the crew in other non forex markets ?

regards
N
 

Adamus

Well-known member
Mar 25, 2008
1,898
97
58
It looks like my speed-reading skills are not up to scratch anymore, if everyone else on here is reading this whole thread! There's >1500 posts. I started this morning but gave up on page 5 - lame, I know.

Anyway, CC was kind enough to take time out of nappy changing to email me his ebook, and my sole intention over the last 6 hours has been to automate it successfully in NinjaTrader. Don't know whether I can announce success though. I think there's too much discretion required that I can't put down in code.

I said I took 6 hours doing this but actually a couple of those were wasted because I coded it up against the 5min, 2min and 4hour timeframes instead of the 5min, 60min & 4 hour TFs - doh!

Looking at the results, and I don't know how this compares to LBranjord's EA, I only managed to get 30 pips per month out of it and that doesn't take transaction costs into account.

That is across 10 currency pairs though, so if I were to pick and choose I guess it would be better! I can tell you it absolutely hates the Swissie, the Can$ and the €-Swiss cross. So if I dump out those pairs it increases the profit from 135K over 4.5 years to 160K.

I tested it from 2006 to June this year.

I did it by the book (the e-book) so 60 period MA on 4hr, 60min & 5min timeframes.

I enter when they all line up - on close of the bar - by putting a break-out stop at the most recent high (although I use 3 bars before and 2 bars after as my definition of a high) plus vice-versa for shorts.

Like LBranjord's EA, I used the 60min ATR as the stop loss but I put in 10 times the 4 hour ATR as a target. Just 1 times the ATR as a target didn't work at all. Risk vs reward is multo importante on this system I guess.

I coded up the "get out when it turns bad" advice from CC and it made the system profitable - without that, it would just lose all the time everywhere:

So when long for example, get out if the price drops below the 60min MA and below the most recent lowest low.

This is all tested on IQ-Feed 1 min bars for the raw data input. I don't really trust it to hold up in real-time and since it's not producing significant profits anyway, I wondering whether I can do anything more to it or whether I should just give it up as something you just need discretion to trade.

There are probably one or two more things I can glean from the e-book. For instance, I can restrict the hours it trades.

Any feedback?

EDIT: after faffing around for an hour I've just realised the results are massively skewed to the short side. in fact the long side makes no money at all. I would suspect a programming error but some of the markets are fine, 1:1 long:short, just some of them are really really bad long.
 

lbranjord

Active member
May 7, 2008
453
15
28
Wisconsin
It looks like my speed-reading skills are not up to scratch anymore, if everyone else on here is reading this whole thread! There's >1500 posts. I started this morning but gave up on page 5 - lame, I know.

Anyway, CC was kind enough to take time out of nappy changing to email me his ebook, and my sole intention over the last 6 hours has been to automate it successfully in NinjaTrader. Don't know whether I can announce success though. I think there's too much discretion required that I can't put down in code.

I said I took 6 hours doing this but actually a couple of those were wasted because I coded it up against the 5min, 2min and 4hour timeframes instead of the 5min, 60min & 4 hour TFs - doh!

Looking at the results, and I don't know how this compares to LBranjord's EA, I only managed to get 30 pips per month out of it and that doesn't take transaction costs into account.

That is across 10 currency pairs though, so if I were to pick and choose I guess it would be better! I can tell you it absolutely hates the Swissie, the Can$ and the €-Swiss cross. So if I dump out those pairs it increases the profit from 135K over 4.5 years to 160K.

I tested it from 2006 to June this year.

I did it by the book (the e-book) so 60 period MA on 4hr, 60min & 5min timeframes.

I enter when they all line up - on close of the bar - by putting a break-out stop at the most recent high (although I use 3 bars before and 2 bars after as my definition of a high) plus vice-versa for shorts.

Like LBranjord's EA, I used the 60min ATR as the stop loss but I put in 10 times the 4 hour ATR as a target. Just 1 times the ATR as a target didn't work at all. Risk vs reward is multo importante on this system I guess.

I coded up the "get out when it turns bad" advice from CC and it made the system profitable - without that, it would just lose all the time everywhere:

So when long for example, get out if the price drops below the 60min MA and below the most recent lowest low.

This is all tested on IQ-Feed 1 min bars for the raw data input. I don't really trust it to hold up in real-time and since it's not producing significant profits anyway, I wondering whether I can do anything more to it or whether I should just give it up as something you just need discretion to trade.

There are probably one or two more things I can glean from the e-book. For instance, I can restrict the hours it trades.

Any feedback?
I will say this, when I tested my system from 1999-2010, it's not successful in some years. Not saying 3 ducks isn't good. Just saying that attempting to hard code it didn't work for me. It might be good to have an expert to "warn" you about signals but I don't think it's worth automating really.

So many systems cannot pass the 10 year test though, it shouldn't really be a gold standard for things. Good luck on yours Adamus, I'm sure it will be top par :)
 

Adamus

Well-known member
Mar 25, 2008
1,898
97
58
I will say this, when I tested my system from 1999-2010, it's not successful in some years. Not saying 3 ducks isn't good. Just saying that attempting to hard code it didn't work for me. It might be good to have an expert to "warn" you about signals but I don't think it's worth automating really.

So many systems cannot pass the 10 year test though, it shouldn't really be a gold standard for things. Good luck on yours Adamus, I'm sure it will be top par :)
Did you try turning up the target? I mean, just make it 10 times further away?
 

Adamus

Well-known member
Mar 25, 2008
1,898
97
58
Yes, I also kept on thinking, I'm spending too much time on this, but it's my fear of mistakes that hide the real profit in there waiting to burst out and fill my bank account.

e.g. I just realised that the "get out when going gets bad" filter is actually random. I mean, it looks sensible but then I thought about it, and realised that no, it is actually random. Unfortunately it works really well. For the backtest at least.

Code:
[FONT="Courier New"]
if (Position.MarketPosition == MarketPosition.Long 
	&& Close[0] < sma2[0]
	&& Close[0] < pivotPoint.Support[0] - littleExtra)
{
	// close position....
}
[/FONT]
So the pivot point support is always the latest support level - which of course moves down as well as up so whether the price ever catches it or not is just chance. I'll change it to trail the price and not drop back and see what happens to the results.
 

Captain Currency

Well-known member
Sep 6, 2007
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captaincurrency.blogspot.com
Potential Trade Set-Up In The Coming Sessions
Anyways, just had a quick glance at the market earlier and one currency pair that I wouldn't mind getting involved with when/if my ducks line up would be Eur.Aud

Currently on Eur.Aud
240min chart; current price is below sma
60min chart; current price is below sma
5min; current price is above the sma

I will be looking for selling oppertunities using the 3 ducks If we do get back below the 5min sma and start getting some momentum in a downward direction. I would love to see a break of 1.4300 as this could open up the way for the 1.4000/1.3900 area.

Best wishes,
Andy.

Trade Safely, This is not a trade recommendation. Use a stop loss and profit target that you think works best for you.
Greetings Duck Hunters,

Our ducks lined up for a sell on the Eur.Aud on Monday and we got some momentum in a downward direction that we where looking for. A decent enough trade that paid off well. Keep it simple :)

Best wishes,
Andy
 

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