technical Analysis - anyone follow it?

Uncle

Established member
671 2
Wayno.........seems to me your thread was inspired purely to create controversy. I have been a private investor for very much longer than thou has been in the markets, and I would say the best thing that ever happened was the availability of the P.C. and the subsequent introduction of T.A. programmes. Before that we could rely on such things as sound management and dividends - good solid stuff!!! However, as a "Market Maker" you will know that share prices over many years have been driven by the investment banks pushing clients into mergers and "GROWTH" so they could wax fat on the bonuses from deals which have subsequently resulted in the present state of affairs with many of the "growth companies" now hiving off many of their divisions at great loss.

DONT TELL ME T/A DOESN'T WORK...........USE IT AS A TOOL AND IT IS THE BEST THING SLICED BREAD WAS INTRODUCED - BUT THEN YOU WONT BE OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER THAT !!!

John
 

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
7,370 1,194
I echo Trader333's comment about width size.

"save you the countless seconds it must take to scroll across the page once."
Well actually it is then necessary to scroll across on every subsequent post, not just once, and that IS a nuisance.
I too tend to give up on those threads as I choose not to waste my time, so the request does seem fair and reasonable to me.
 

jonnyy40

Experienced member
1,329 11
Yes, chartwidth annoys me as well. As for TA - blame it on fish. In the ocean, they congregate around any bit of flotsam. If I put you in a dark room, you'd feel your way to the wall, just for a reference point. It's my understanding that most people tend to have more or less 100 friends/acquaintances. There's something in evolutionary terms that's built this into us. Maybe that's why fibonacci numbers and the rest 'work'? There's something in us that gives them significance? Maybe in this need for a reference point, together with numbers with 'evolutionary significance' lies the answer? Plus the more an indicator is 'pushed', the more it's used, the greater the effect it has? If thats not good lunchtime b#llsh#t -- I don't know what is!
 

Uncle

Established member
671 2
Wayno

I would suggest if this thread is the best you can contribute then you better stick to what you know best...........and that is obviously not technical analysis, although if you are the Professional you say you are, then I do not believe you do not look at the charts in some form. so why "KNOCK" those that do.

SO ENDETH THE LESSON !!!!
 

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
7,370 1,194
Hey guys, let's cool things,huh?
I don't think anyone means to cause upset, so we can just agree to disagree and stay polite to one another.
Since Laud Jubbly seems to have departed into a universe all of his own this place has got much better, so let's keep it that way.
Please.
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
I agree that large charts can be a real pain.
and in the main add little info over smaller charts.

a lot of my charts are screen captures (bmp) and I already
convert them to gif so they can be posted in places, where there
is a much less generous size allowance for uploads, but dont
think they would take much reducing before they became very
dodgy to read.

the problem is that a poster cannot access the html for the chart if its come from his own pc.
Maybe the solution is to allow access to that code on 'edit' and
then they could be reduced in size ?
after all having been uploaded, no reason why they shoudnt have a t2w url ?

just a thought.

the other thought is to force a cr/lf after n characters in the
Reply box. That would stop messages using the width of the
charts ?
As in this response ?
 
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tomorton

Legendary member
8,438 1,365
I read the article in the FT too. Typical of P Coggan - I'm sure he's a good investor within his own style but he should stick to writing about what he knows about. Not long ago he was sayng that you can't make a profit short-term trading.

Have had a chance to search a few sites on Niederhoffer and Kenner, the authors of the book - interesting. Laurel Kenner is a journalist, so we can assume very little trading/investing/statistical analysis/personal market experience there. Victor Niederhoffer is a failed fund manager who went bust in a big way in 1997, since when he has been running their website and commentating for US business TV.

They're not rubbishing TA for the benefit of us poor gullible investors, they have a book to sell and that will be easier with some controversial swipes at easy targets like TA. They also have a website to generate traffic for.

Us TA people might think the diametric opposite of our approach is value investing as per Graham and Buffet. However, the book also attacks Graham and his approach, and therefore by implication Buffet too.

Of course, P Coggan doesn't mention this, and I wonder if this is because he might be of the long-term/buy-and-hold/value investment/fundamental analysis persuasion.

It would be nice to hear from anyone who has been steered into rewarding investments by Victor Niederhoffer, I'd like to be persuaded so that I can start to follow him too.
 

DaveGos

Active member
100 1
While I'm still learning TA I do know a little more about psychology and I believe TA has to be valid because in the end what we see on the charts is a reflection of the way people behave as a group. The bottom line is that in any given set of circumstances most people will react the way they reacted to those circumstances in the past. If they didn't then the market couldn't work because it would chaotic.
TA doesn't work 100% not because it is invalid but because events, major and minor, impact upon peoples behaviour and this changes the outcome.

I think natural traders are those fortunate few who are able to, as bonsai put it 'read the body language of the market' they are still using TA but don't have to grind through the charts like the rest of us.
 

CityTrader

Established member
665 26
Uncle, funnily enough I do look at charts- but only to confirm what I want to know. Also I use charts for exactly what I believe they are good for- history. I will look to see where a stock has been where the "noise" is ( periods of activity) so, I guess if I use these pieces of history to make my own interpretation of the future, then yes.. I'm a chartist.
Sorry if you don't like my views Uncle. - I'm not being awkward, just merely expressing my opinions, and I really do firmly think that this sort of discussion is healthy. Surely I've made you think about things today? If you'd rather not read the posts of anyone who doesn't share your views, then I'll take my thoughts elsewhere. I do however believe I have been sort of helpful over the last 2 months- correcting misinterpretations about Market makers and the SEAQ system, and providing some of the little "insiders secrets" on the way the London market works. Maybe I should sell my time to some sort of seminar- " 1 on 1 coaching from an ex market maker" ? ( you listening Richard?!) guess I wouldn't have to many takers from here!
Once again apologies to anyone upset by my views - (that seem to diverge from 95% of the users on here.).

W

I must have at least 1 fan out there!! someone's voted for me!!
 

cassiopeia

Active member
138 3
The two books Coggan mentions were wrote by Taleb and Niederhoffer, but these guys are often on opposite sides of the fence and Niederhoffer hasn't got an umblemished record. Perhaps he should have learnt how to incorporate stops into his strategies!

http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm


Taleb makes much of what he learned from Niederhoffer, but Niederhoffer insists that his example was wasted on Taleb. ...... Today, Niederhoffer makes a lot of his money selling options, and more often than not the person who he sells those options to is Nassim Taleb. If one of them is up a dollar one day, in other words, that dollar is likely to have come from the other. The teacher and pupil have become predator and prey........

A year after Nassim Taleb came to visit him, Victor Niederhoffer blew up. He sold a very large number of options on the S. & P. index, taking millions of dollars from other traders in exchange for promising to buy a basket of stocks from them at current prices, if the market ever fell. It was an unhedged bet, or what was called on Wall Street a "naked put," meaning that he bet everyone on one outcome: he bet in favor of the large probability of making a small amount of money, and against the small probability of losing a large amount of money-and he lost. On October 27, 1997, the market plummeted eight per cent, and all of the many, many people who had bought those options from Niederhoffer came calling all at once, demanding that he buy back their stocks at pre-crash prices. He ran through a hundred and thirty million dollars -- his cash reserves, his savings, his other stocks -- and when his broker came and asked for still more he didn't have it. In a day, one of the most successful hedge funds in America was wiped out. Niederhoffer had to shut down his firm. He had to mortgage his house. He had to borrow money from his children. He had to call Sotheby's and sell his prized silver collection
 

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
7,370 1,194
Wayne,
I always listen to what you have to say - as I usually do to the people I respect, even if I don't agree with them ;-)
Now you've got three votes.......
Richard
 

DaveJB

Experienced member
1,159 42
I'm rather with Uncle here, I am not frothing like that Frank character in the Harry Enfield series etc but given this is a site where the emphasis is on TA it seems a bit confrontational to come on and post this. That somebody at the FT believes TA doesn't work doesn't invalidate it as a method... in fact it rather flies in the face of the evidence, a heck of a lot of people use it daily to trade.
That an FT writer said this isn't surprising, that's the same company who publish the Funnymentals heavy Inventors Chronicly isn't it? You know, that mag that has so much trouble finding decent share tips? They probably believe the Earth's flat as well <g> Listen to THAT lot and you'll be playing a guitar outside the tube station of your choice inside a year!
FT says it doesn't work... great, I MUST be on the right track then!
Dave
 

ZigZag

Active member
123 0
wayno please continue you have my vote. The value of philosophy is that all statements and views are challenged rather than allow perceptions to be taken as truth. We would still be in the dark ages if this was not the case. Although I tend to agree with uncle. T/A has allowed me to control my own investments rather than pay commision to ineffective fund managers for the privelage of losing me money. T/A is not science. My belief is a fundamental + T/A is the best approach of increasing your wealth. However as I do not trust the fundamental information available to the man on top of the clapham omnibus (Unlike Soros who pays huge sums to the best advisors in their particular fields for original research. But even he believes you have go with the majority even if the majority is wrong . His edge is he gets out before the rest.) I therefore have to rely on second best which is T.A. AS long as my returns are better than other investment vehicles using T/A it would be illogical not will stick with it. I will change my mind when Im proven wrong. Which will of course be when I can increase my returns by using a building society savings account. The value of your contrarian view is that it makes people think, preferably without emotion. Or it should do. Good Luck
 

rossored

Senior member
2,103 56
Right, well sorry if the width of my charts upsets people.

However, as no-one has actually said how to reduce the chart size (although Paul/Trader333) gave an excellent example, I still don't know how to do it!!
 
 
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