"I know what you mean but I think osho67 was referring to a specific post on specific leading indicators and I remember what they didnt include."
Yes I agree and understand. He was probably referring to a specific post and you remember what was not in it.
No problems with that.
I was just putting on my own two penneth on the subject of forward looking indicators, as did Madasafish.
Can't agree with you on MA and MACD etc.. they're all just statistical representations of the past. The crossing of MA's and swinging of MACD is caused by price action, not the other way round. Also they do not indicate strength of move. By the time you've allowed enough price movement to confirm the indicator, it's too late.
So why not just follow price/volume in the first place?
If you flip a coin 10 times and get all heads, what's the probability of getting a head on the eleventh flip? Same answer with prediciting price reaction when hitting s/r and trendlines n times: unpredicitable based on past performance.
hmm ersatz: you have made a number of staements that are factually incorrect. i would agree if you are using a 5 minute chart and 20 period mas but use a 1 minute and 3-9 mas and macd and you can predict what will happen quite well.
But nothing beats support and resistance - particularly pivot points...
Time frame does not make a bit of difference in predictive qualities of MACD or any kind of MA.. MA and its derivitive wont tell market where to go ,, IT IS THE MARKET WHICH DRAGS MOVING AVERAGES ALONG LIKE A CHILD...
TRADERS LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL DATA IN TRENDING MARKET AND NOTICE AS SOON AS THERE IS A CROSS OVER THERE IS START OF A TREND.. WHAT THEY DONOT REALISE IS THAT THE CROSS OVER IS " THE EFFECT " OF THE TREND AND NOT "THE CAUSE"..
However if you can make $$$ from them then use it..
Don't want to argue about statistical probability with you.
Totally agree with you on s/r (with money management of course). This is my preferred method on 5/15 min chart.
Okay, so which instrument(s) are you using the above on, I'll watch it tomorrow. Believe me, if I could find a reliable predicitve indicator, I'd use it. However, 1 min charts are too volatile for my style.
If I've time I'll even record the actual number of successful entries your set up offers. I'm trying to clarify effectiveness, that's all.
For those of you who feel MA has some kind of a predictive qualities then you might be better off to use it as an oscillators.. We call this MAOS...
Strategy would be:-
1)wait for MAOS ( ma oscillator ) to get to its extreme compare to its N period...
2) take a full position when MAOS turns
3) sell 1/2 when MAOS hits the zero line.
4) if MAOS crossed the zero line to above let it run other wise sell the other 1/2
Ignore intermediate signals ( not at their extremes) they are false and donot justify the risk
Oh I agree MAs are post event .. but they CAN be predictive..
Let me put it like this: if I can devise a system based on MAs and MACD which when it meets a certain set of conditions forecast the market will go up or down.. i.e a certain direction .. then by definition it IS predictive.
After all predictive indicators - eg CMF, overbought/oversold , linear regression forecasts etc sometimes (often) are only warnings and only work when confirmed with actual results. So they can predict away: I keep get Prechter's Gann forecasts and he has and keeps forecasting a major collpase in US indices since June 2003. Now I'm sure Gann is right and eventually we will see a major fall but when is the issue.
After all predicting an event is no good unless it is confirmed by actual results.
So I have turned it around.. ignore the predictions and just focus on those things that confirm a trend is underway.. after all as I say predictions are a waste of time if the timing is wrong
Thanks for your posts very intesting are the ideas you mention !!is this the way you like to trade?Looks as if you are using a 5 periodMA and then entering on crossovers?I have heard alot about trading the sp and Dow and was wondering what your thoughts are on trading say a crossover method at certain times in the trading day say 2 hours am after the intial 1/2 hour and the last 2.5 hours or maybe even a shorter timeframe say an hour a day!!using 1 min charts there must be so many signals in an hour anyway!!Could this be profitable?Im always surprised when i hear people say they sit there all day watching a screen waiting for the right moment!!?
Also im interested in getting a realtime charting package and notice u use investor r/t do u like it? I presume you do?would u buy again?Have heard much about sierra but can it do the same things as investor r/t?Like programme ideas and chart pivot points and coloured bars etc?