Swingin' the ftse 2010

hi mr g - nice to see you back under your old colours :D

well you know what they say - buy a double bottom, sell a triple :)

ftse's been viciously weak against dow all week. Last Friday close was 5534 when dow stood at 10580. Today's ftse close 5455 (-79 from last Friday) with dow at 10607 (+27). If ftse had kept pace with dow it'd be around 5545, getting on for a hundred higher.

I would think it will begin to close the difference soon but, if dow slides ftse would just slide less!! Nonetheless I'll be looking for long opportunity.

good trading

jon
 
just delurking on this thread so that I get the "new post" notifications and don't hafta hunt for it every day, hope that's okay, and hi to all.

Tess
 

Hi guys, please check this out...
I posted this video on friday morning (around 3:30) AM before the market opened...

I trade Elliott Wave patterns, and have to say...
the market did EXACTLY (I was out by 1 pip) what I said in this video...


The implications are vast, on my longer term wave pattern structure...
It implies that the rally since March 2009 has topped...

If the market unfolds as I am viewing it, we may be at the begining of a continuation of the major downtrend... heading towards March lows and perhaps even beyond..


I traded this market on FTSE (according to Elliott Wave patterns I saw emerge)...
and sold July FTSE's at 5515 and holding shorts for more declines (unless patterns change).


Please feel free to check out this video, I will be making another one over the weekend coming soon...


Let me know what you think.


Regards,

Max
 
Hi Max - You were absolutely right on the dramatic fall yesterday, though we never got to the 5550 level you highlighted as the top of the upward move. But a very good piece of TA to get direction and strength of move. I could see that the Dow and FTSE were suffering from slight RSI negative divergence but, not understanding Elliott and ignoring intra-day price action, did not expect such a weak day to follow. I had the picture quite wrong as was holding onto a Dow long into Friday (now closed just above break-even).

This might now seem a bit critical, but I would ask though if you don't think you're using the Fibonacci retracement pattern upside down, when forecasting retracement levels from a recent high back towards an earlier low?
 
tomorton said:
Hi Max - You were absolutely right on the dramatic fall yesterday, though we never got to the 5550 level you highlighted as the top of the upward move. But a very good piece of TA to get direction and strength of move. I could see that the Dow and FTSE were suffering from slight RSI negative divergence but, not understanding Elliott and ignoring intra-day price action, did not expect such a weak day to follow. I had the picture quite wrong as was holding onto a Dow long into Friday (now closed just above break-even).

This might now seem a bit critical, but I would ask though if you don't think you're using the Fibonacci retracement pattern upside down, when forecasting retracement levels from a recent high back towards an earlier low?
Click to expand...


Tom, in regards to the 5550 level, I was watching this market live on Friday all day...
because of the Options expiry we had a SHARP (and I mean sharp) move coming up to 10:15ish... Market jumped about 70 pips in 5 min!!
It got to 5551 (it did happen)... but I too have noticed that this has not been shown on my charting package either... at the time I was watching it on the live charts provided my IG Index (where I have my spread betting account).

I suspect that most charting providers have concluded that this was a "blip" or that the market movement due to the option expiry should be left out (I'll admit I was unaware that it was an options expiary date)... but either way, at the level 5550 (or 5551 where it actually hit)... massive selling came in and it was forced back down.


In regards to fib levels, its a fair question...

What I did in the video was something very new to me (but it works in terms of Elliott Wave Theory)... I completely understand that fib retracements should be looked at from major high to major low...

What I did was apply a slightly different way of looking at it using an elliot wave rule/guidline... which states that in identified ABC patterns... waves A and C can often tend to be the same length (or roughly similar)...
So in theory, if this guidling holds true... they would both have similar internal fibonacci structures...

So rather than to use a measuring tool to measure wave "A" and project that amount of pips up from the low of wave "B" (to get target A=C)... I took the fib levels of wave A and used them in the same way... just to see how relevant they may be to a wave C climb... In essense the ultimate target projection (regardless what tool I used) was the same... just with the fibs I got abit more information about how we might get there.


I hope you can see how this may be assumed to be logical (in conjunction with certain Elliott Wave rules/guidelines)...

It was abit of an experiment as I had never really used this technique before, but I came across it and thought I would see how it goes.


I know you said that you were not the biggest fan of Elliott Wave, and it is quite complicated at times... but I hope my response isn't too complicated and relatively easy to understand (and hopefully has some logic in it).


Let me know what you think, or if you have any questions?
 
Hi Max - Now I look at the intra-day tick chart I do see a 50pt move in 5 minutes at the time you suggest so I am sure the direct acces sand some SB packages might well show more - these discrepancies are very annoying but I have noticed them in the past.

On Fibonacci retracement, this must be a use confined to interpretations of Elliott wave methodology where I have already admitted to being naive (and sceptical). Suffice to say that I am sure the conventional way of expressing a 38.2% retracement down from a high of, say, 10,000 towards 5,000 would be 38.2 % down, not 38.2% up, so should be given as 8,090, not 6,910.

Mind you, feel free to regard this as the expression of an amateur as I don't use Fib either!

I still don't see how you did it, but the point is it was still very good TA.
 
tomorton said:
Hi Max - Now I look at the intra-day tick chart I do see a 50pt move in 5 minutes at the time you suggest so I am sure the direct acces sand some SB packages might well show more - these discrepancies are very annoying but I have noticed them in the past.

On Fibonacci retracement, this must be a use confined to interpretations of Elliott wave methodology where I have already admitted to being naive (and sceptical). Suffice to say that I am sure the conventional way of expressing a 38.2% retracement down from a high of, say, 10,000 towards 5,000 would be 38.2 % down, not 38.2% up, so should be given as 8,090, not 6,910.

Mind you, feel free to regard this as the expression of an amateur as I don't use Fib either!

I still don't see how you did it, but the point is it was still very good TA.
Click to expand...


Thanks again for the kind words.
One things I thought may be of signifigance which you may want to consider...

If you look at the Fib. levels of the entire move from 2007 peak to 2009 march low...
We are at a critical turning point (possibly).

Anyway, feel free to check out my next video (weekend review) I will try and post tonight and please feel free to leave any comments/questions/critisisms..

all the best,


Max
 
Andronichuk said:
...

If you look at the Fib. levels of the entire move from 2007 peak to 2009 march low...
We are at a critical turning point (possibly).

Max
Click to expand...


Yes, I have had this on one of my FTSE charts for a little while. Strong close and consolidation above this level (I place it at 5496.0) will be very positive but I see a more probable fall first.

Still, my trades are trend-following, not trend-anticipating so I currently await a failed swing high below 5601 before shorting.
 
Whereas entry and stop-loss positions are fairly well agreed in our line, exits from a profitable position always cause debate. I am trialling the following rules - for longs (reverse for shorts) -
a) exit at the first profitable close below the 14EMA
b) exit at the second consecutive lower close, if the first was below the previous day's low (whether in profit or not)
c) final stop-loss continues to be the low of the swing low day

Cheers all.
 
Well, I have orders to open a point above Friday's high. If I get filled I reckon I'll have tight stops until we get over 5600. I may get 50-75 points even if we turn around and head south.
We're bouncing right around that fib level mentioned above at the moment.
 
Agreed. I hope for a long opportunity tomorrow if we make 15/01 a swing low, though we failed today. Up day today means no thought of shorting before Wednesday's close at earliest.
 
Mr. G said:
Well, I have orders to open a point above Friday's high. If I get filled I reckon I'll have tight stops until we get over 5600. I may get 50-75 points even if we turn around and head south.
We're bouncing right around that fib level mentioned above at the moment.
Click to expand...

Orders not filled - quelle surprise!

Today we have a lower low with a high (so far) of around 5477.
 
Jumped in long just after tonight's close, on strong confirmation of 14EMA breach.
 
Tom - looks like you have a good set-up for a short on your 14EMA momentum swing method.
When, typically, would you enter?
 
Hi Mr. G - Nominally, the signal called for entry at the close last night, as second close below 14EMA, with very negative candlestick patterns over the two days. However, I am in a little crisis of confidence.

Any system that calls for a short entry dependent on MA and on a local low is going to carry a degree of risk, although I know it will work through in the long run of many trades. However, last night I was examining FTSE350 stocks for entry (on the same signal) and ways of following those in most pronounced trends. I found that when looking at share price trends, I also looked at the FTSE100 index TA, and tried to filter out all stocks that showed a weaker trend picture than the index. So, if I would not trade a share with TA no better than the index's, why am I trying to trade the index? The case for trading it, as opposed to a selected basket of its members, is borderline at best - literally, as the index forms the border between shares to trade and shares to avoid.

I am wondering if the whole approach isn't flawed. Not comfortable.
 
I would only add that entries are important and may be good or may be bad, but I wonder if the real strength of a system isn't the exit signals, and I rather like mine better than the entry.
 
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