Again we have opposing candles for the FTSE100 and Dow. Looks like an early fall for the FTSE on Monday: I will pyramid the existing short on Monday am pre-open - have been stung twice recently by orders triggering out of hours and quotes reversing before I realised and could put a stop on them. Not nice to wake up naked.
dailytrader81
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I put a sell on FTSE 100 Rolling spread on 3890 and on heavy loss. Market should have gone down today after DOW closed 100+ lower on friday. I am not sure weather to wait for market to fall or close my position.
My short already stopped out before the open - but at least out and at least for a gain, +41pts net. Disappointed we're not dropping today, surprising considering the newsflow. Don't let your loss grow to go past your money management threshold: you can always cut some of the position right now anyway.
dailytrader81
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I think market will drop as soon as Dow open at 2.30
It hasn't yet but, well, it still might - thing is, I don't think it will rise, and I don't think it will drop, it will do one or the other but I just don't think about it. Not wishing to be a smart-asre, but I look at where the FTSE has gone, and see where I can enter if it continues that way, and where I can enter if it stops going that way and goes the other way. The effect is that I don't have to be 100% right at any precise moment, just as long as I am half-right eventually. And even if I'm wrong, I'm only half-wrong. Mistakes still happen, like twice recently when I had orders triggered, leaving my positions uncovered by stops, and price reveresed - unforgiveably stupid buy hey ho still in the game.
Don't know fantastic - very disappointing rise. But knowledge not translated into action is just noise. Even if I knew with absolute certainty why we went up today, tomorrow will not be the same. You can't jump into the same river twice, its not the same river.
Hi shaun
I use index options though i think most guys here use spreadbetting, i may be wrong tho
Be Well
Steve
_JWG_
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Thank you Barjon
G'day Barjon,
Just wanted to thank you for your threads on swing trading the FTSE. I read the 2007 version as well. I realize you have put alot of time and effort into your posts and I just wanted you to know that it is very much appreciated. I'm new to T2W and find your experience and knowledge a real insight. I've noticed you have not been posting much trading activity of late... no doubt due to the absolute chaos in the markets.
I'm a relatively new trader. I've traded stocks, indices, commodities & FX with limited results over the past 2 years. I realize the learning curve is steep in trading and it's a real test of ones mindset. Never the less I'm obsessed with trading and the light at the end of the tunnel (i.e trading for a living) is always in the back of my mind. No matter how expensive the education may be.
In light of this I have a question for you.
In your opinion is it wise to stay on the sidelines in such a time as this in the markets?
If so then how do you gauge re-entry to the markets?
Cheers
JWG
G'day Barjon,
Just wanted to thank you for your threads on swing trading the FTSE
. I read the 2007 version as well. I realize you have put alot of time and effort into your posts and I just wanted you to know that it is very much appreciated. I'm new to T2W and find your experience and knowledge a real insight. I've noticed you have not been posting much trading activity of late... no doubt due to the absolute chaos in the markets.I'm a relatively new trader. I've traded stocks, indices, commodities & FX with limited results over the past 2 years. I realize the learning curve is steep in trading and it's a real test of ones mindset. Never the less I'm obsessed with trading and the light at the end of the tunnel (i.e trading for a living) is always in the back of my mind. No matter how expensive the education may be.
In light of this I have a question for you.
In your opinion is it wise to stay on the sidelines in such a time as this in the markets?
If so then how do you gauge re-entry to the markets?
Cheers
JWG
Yesterday made a good third consecutive 'up' day so a putative swing high. The US indices are less clear but the weak US close does suggest we will fall on the open this morning and confirm the swing sell signal. I wait for the opening volatility to subside so I can get in short (already shorted overnight as a shuttle trade but closed that one for good gain - I am finding the 8am volatility on the SB quotes so bad it is best to be flat at 8, as whatever stops I have would always be hit otherwise it seems).
barjon
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hi jwg,
thanks.
So far as your question is concerned I guess it depends on your approach. Day traders are loving this volatility even though you've got to be pretty quick fingered.
I'm definitely on the sidelines as far as the 3 bar swing approach is concerned - the volatility is just too much. For example, Tomo pointed out that yesterday completed a potential 3 bar correction which would give a short trade at around 4210 - the market gave you no chance opening nearly 100 below that making any entry very risky and encompassing a huge stoploss if you did, albeit that it's continued down.
good trading
jon
Volatility is very high lately - just look at the skyscraper daily bars in the last 3 weeks and compare with the height of the bars in August. These monster ranges mean that if you are using one daily extreme as entry and the other as stop-loss, your losses on a trade going sour are going to be that much greater. So, to compensate, you should use a smaller position size than usual, so that a stop 3 times the usual number of points away does not mean a loss of 3 times the number of £.
I see only one recent proper swing high (until yesterday) on my FTSE100 chart, and that was way back on 29/08! That was a good shorting signal, since when the market has been very choppy and signals have been compressed to 1 or 2 day reversals. So swing traders might have been forced to take to the sidelines if they stick strictly to the orthodox methodology. On the other hand, I have started using shorter-term swing signals to gove more frequent signals - September was my second-best month ever because of the extra volume of trading I was signalled into. The Gann/Rivalland formula would not have given me any signals at all in September. But my positions are each small - money management keeps you in the game, not being a high roller.
I see only one recent proper swing high (until yesterday) on my FTSE100 chart, and that was way back on 29/08! That was a good shorting signal, since when the market has been very choppy and signals have been compressed to 1 or 2 day reversals. So swing traders might have been forced to take to the sidelines if they stick strictly to the orthodox methodology. On the other hand, I have started using shorter-term swing signals to gove more frequent signals - September was my second-best month ever because of the extra volume of trading I was signalled into. The Gann/Rivalland formula would not have given me any signals at all in September. But my positions are each small - money management keeps you in the game, not being a high roller.
Mr. G
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snip..."So swing traders might have been forced to take to the sidelines if they stick strictly to the orthodox methodology"
snip..." The Gann/Rivalland formula would not have given me any signals at all in September."
Can you direct me to or recommend books/sources that cover Swing trading or the methodology you mention.
snip..." The Gann/Rivalland formula would not have given me any signals at all in September."
Can you direct me to or recommend books/sources that cover Swing trading or the methodology you mention.
'Marc Rivalland on Swing Trading'
You might skim-read it once and think, this is so simple, it can't work, it must be harder than this, surely trading involves more than this...... Actually, the practice in real-time is harder than the text would suggest but the discipline and planning are excellent exercises for new traders.
My only criticism, you have probably gathered, is that buy and sell signals must be separated by not less than 3 trading days, and even then, you might only take the main trend's signal, ignoring the counter-trend moves. Not enough response to the market's convolutions for my taste so I have been using Barjon's thread as a testing ground for earlier, more frequent signals. He is quite indulgent of my more volatile trading style. So far, the assemblage of strategies is working well and I hope to make back much of what I lost as the tech bubble imploded in 01-02. Grrrr.
You might skim-read it once and think, this is so simple, it can't work, it must be harder than this, surely trading involves more than this...... Actually, the practice in real-time is harder than the text would suggest but the discipline and planning are excellent exercises for new traders.
My only criticism, you have probably gathered, is that buy and sell signals must be separated by not less than 3 trading days, and even then, you might only take the main trend's signal, ignoring the counter-trend moves. Not enough response to the market's convolutions for my taste so I have been using Barjon's thread as a testing ground for earlier, more frequent signals. He is quite indulgent of my more volatile trading style. So far, the assemblage of strategies is working well and I hope to make back much of what I lost as the tech bubble imploded in 01-02. Grrrr.
