swingin' the ftse: 2008

[barjon]

Onward ever onward - there's 550 points in the trade now (are you watching, split ). We've knocked out the 22 January low and only another 250 to go before we've lost 50% of the 2003 - 2007 bull run.

Sentiment is becoming ultra-bearish so, although trying to catch a falling knife is something of a mug's game, anyone still in the trade might dust off their favourite reversal pattern to protect profit - can always re-enter if it fails.

Although we only got two higher highs in some messy action, I think the dotted red line can be taken as a swing high in order to signal a change of trend should we go in that direction without a better retracement.

edit: must be a glitch - can't upload chart will try later. The dotted line is at 5538 if you want to find it on your own charts in the meantime.

glitch has been fixed - chart is here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/461390-post573.html

good trading

jon

 

[Splitlink]

Onward ever onward - there's 550 points in the trade now (are you watching, split ). We've knocked out the 22 January low and only another 250 to go before we've lost 50% of the 2003 - 2007 bull run.

Sentiment is becoming ultra-bearish so, although trying to catch a falling knife is something of a mug's game, anyone still in the trade might dust off their favourite reversal pattern to protect profit - can always re-enter if it fails.

Although we only got two higher highs in some messy action, I think the dotted red line can be taken as a swing high in order to signal a change of trend should we go in that direction without a better retracement.

edit: must be a glitch - can't upload chart will try later. The dotted line is at 5538 if you want to find it on your own charts in the meantime.

good trading

jon

Going well, Jon. Looking for a top to short on Monday. Still short Lloyds on a longer term position trade.

5538 ? You have to be brave to be able to accept the stop risk on that one, although I don't say it won't happen. Some of these turns are astonishingly fierce. However, who will have the guts to take the risk required by your rules. if it does happen? That is why I have decided to wait for the first pullback before entering.

How is Mrs Barjon coping with her share portfolio?

She is the one you need to convince---not me!

Split

 

[barjon]

Going well, Jon. Looking for a top to short on Monday. Still short Lloyds on a longer term position trade.

5538 ? You have to be brave to be able to accept the stop risk on that one, although I don't say it won't happen. Some of these turns are astonishingly fierce. However, who will have the guts to take the risk required by your rules. if it does happen? That is why I have decided to wait for the first pullback before entering.

How is Mrs Barjon coping with her share portfolio?

She is the one you need to convince---not me!

Split

split

The 5538 won't be for trading by the rules, just for signalling a trend change when I will switch to favouring longs.

Mrs B's been in cash for ages so all she's got is the interest - I'm pulling well ahead for a change :clap:

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

The media is full of stories of us entering a bear market, this is usually a (short term at least) sign for a rally. It was the same in March 2003, the morning after the market hit what was to be the low the BBC were outside offices in the City trying to get a soundbite.......

foredog - Taking a position contrary to the mainstream media is is not a bad guide. An alternative but less well known indicator is the anti-tomorton. We all now know the market hit a major low on 12/03/03. I have in my files a letter from Finspreads confirming my application for an account had been successful and I could now go ahead and trade. Fantastic I thought - now I can go short and recover some of the losses I have suffered while trying to buy shares against the downtrend. The date of that letter was 12/03/03!!!!

 

[Splitlink]

foredog - Taking a position contrary to the mainstream media is is not a bad guide. An alternative but less well known indicator is the anti-tomorton. We all now know the market hit a major low on 12/03/03. I have in my files a letter from Finspreads confirming my application for an account had been successful and I could now go ahead and trade. Fantastic I thought - now I can go short and recover some of the losses I have suffered while trying to buy shares against the downtrend. The date of that letter was 12/03/03!!!!

Well, look on the bright side. That was five years ago and you are still here.

Congratulations!!:clap::clap:

You are a survivor!

You, Jon and me, plus some others, must be doing something right.

Good trading

Split.

PS. With a five year star on your record, I'll never criticise you again!

 

[foredog]

foredog - Taking a position contrary to the mainstream media is is not a bad guide. An alternative but less well known indicator is the anti-tomorton. We all now know the market hit a major low on 12/03/03. I have in my files a letter from Finspreads confirming my application for an account had been successful and I could now go ahead and trade. Fantastic I thought - now I can go short and recover some of the losses I have suffered while trying to buy shares against the downtrend. The date of that letter was 12/03/03!!!!

Tom

let us know if you open another SB account and we'll all pile into the market!!!!!

 

[spanish89]

As soon as ftse opens today im going to close th lon i took on friday evening for a 70points profit, but then instead of trying to gamble and guess how much lower the ftse could fall and on what days it wil fall/rise, im instead goingt o start looking at trading some on the equities that make up the ftse instead, as they should be slightly more stable and therefore easier to read.

Anyone else tried this yet though, or still juggling with the ftse??

 

[foredog]

The equities are LESS stable...the FTSE doesn't really move more than 2% where as stock can regularly move 5%+, also if you're short the FTSE it's not going to get bid for at a 50% premium (see AL. this morning). In saying that i trade stocks, but be careful

 

[barjon]

As soon as ftse opens today im going to close th lon i took on friday evening for a 70points profit, but then instead of trying to gamble and guess how much lower the ftse could fall and on what days it wil fall/rise, im instead goingt o start looking at trading some on the equities that make up the ftse instead, as they should be slightly more stable and therefore easier to read.

Anyone else tried this yet though, or still juggling with the ftse??

spanish

Presumably you took your long before the close when the DOW was still falling like a stone

I only trade FTSE in my "play" account. My main account is concentrated on trading ftse constituent shares. If you go down this route get a small stable together to start with - say 10 - 15 shares - and get to know them and how they move.

jon

 

[Splitlink]

FTSE is still in a down trend. Congrats, Spanish, for your profits on closing the long this morning.
However, I'm selling into strength. That may, or may not, be today but, IMO, you, by holding the index over the weekend, were taking the chance of a bounce this morning because, by going long , you were trading counter to the main trend.

Footsie shares have been good to me since the beginning of June. I hold these overnight. The index, I am nervous to. Why? God knows, that's the way I am.

 

[foredog]

Split

I Trade FTSE stock mainly, i'm the comlete opposite to you, i'd be more nervous holding an individual share overnight than the index....

The bid for AL. was countertrend, or there can be a surprise trading statement to wipe you out, less chance of a "black swan" if you're trading the underlying index

 

[Splitlink]

Split

I Trade FTSE stock mainly, i'm the comlete opposite to you, i'd be more nervous holding an individual share overnight than the index....

The bid for AL. was countertrend, or there can be a surprise trading statement to wipe you out, less chance of a "black swan" if you're trading the underlying index

AL takeover was no surprise. Santander have approached them before. I have been short LLOY since the beginning of June. Take a look at the daily chart. The shares rose
19p today but I have not got a buy signal, yet, although I'll admit to be watching closely.

 

[barjon]

ah, glitch fixed - here's the chart i mentioned at http://www.trade2win.com/boards/460620-post561.html

jon

 

[Splitlink]

The bank shares eased in the afternnoon, as did Footsie. I shorted the SP before leaving for work and have just closed out with 19 points.

As I said, I sold into strength and intend to try again tomorrow.

The problem with buying AL. for example is that although the bid is expected, when was it going to come?

 

[spanish89]

Im always keaning towards buying ftse, as im used to seeing it at over 6000..., so it looks too cheap currently.

But saying that buying stocks because they ''look'' cheap is quite foolish. lol


So i will be focusing on oil later this evening, but how much lower you think the ftse can n will actually fall??

Break below 5000??

 

[Splitlink]

I don't know but I'll ask you another question.

What do you think is more likely, a fall of 300 to 5000, or a rise to 5600?

IMO, it is about probabilities. And opinions, of course.

 

[foredog]

Both,

Big bad news, down we go.....

Some sort of emergency FED/BOE measure up we go.......

either could happen, has before, will again......

 

[foredog]

Or in other words, i haven't got fainest idea and wouldn't rate one too much more likely than the other

 

[HW07]

Hello all,

I shorted FTSE yesterday when it went up over 5360 unfortunately just in paper as i am just putting together my strategy, plan and all.

It is down to below 5200 now... It is almost freefalling...

What do you think, will we have any swing back in the afternoon? It went down under the big resistance line around 5180 now.

 

[Hoggums]

Hello all,

I shorted FTSE yesterday when it went up over 5360 unfortunately just in paper as i am just putting together my strategy, plan and all.

It is down to below 5200 now... It is almost freefalling...

What do you think, will we have any swing back in the afternoon? It went down under the big resistance line around 5180 now.

I don't think this avo - we have to wait for the US reaction - which may send things lower.

However this fall is welcome as we'll probably now get an exhaustion of the down trend, possible market rally off todays lows. I'd like to see a savage market beating today though for me to have any confidence.