Swing and Position Trading

Rex79

Member
72 0
One to watch enterprise Inns (ETI)

Morning All - sorry have ot keep this short -

ETI - will rise soon - or I'll eat my hat /scarf / shoes etc.

Charts are starting to show buy signals, momentum, macd, rsi etc - will wait for the price to cross the 22 ex MA - and will buy on the pull back - checking with force index etc. By this point the weekly macd will be starting to rise.

Poor charts - but you'll get the idea -


( For any Dr.Elder fans - I have found that Williams %R set to 5, acts virtually the same as force index (2) (draw a line at -50, this equates to the zero line on force index ), not sure if that is any use to anyone else. small divergences can sometimes help with entries.

Rex
 

Attachments

techst

Active member
243 3
This popped up on my radar too. Although it's taking a back seat from my attention. The markets are full of good setups but I'm not sure how long this is gonna last. I've got about 20 stocks that I'm ready to make a move on. These are honed down from a list of about 100! LARD has really caught my attention on Friday. I've entered several traps for Monday all on stocks where i believe a certain price confirms the next bullish move.
 

Fluke

Well-known member
456 1
Rex and Techst.
Nice to see you both posting again on this thread,its been very quiet lately.

Any way,I would like your opinions on settings for Stochastics.I am currently using Elders recommended setting of 5%K - 3%D with 3 periods slowing,from Trading for a Living

Rex I notice from your chart you are using 5-5-5 stochastic settings,Why are you using these and what do you recommend I use to give me reliable trading signals

I am using Macd and 13 and 26 weeks EMA's on weekly charts and 13- 22 and 50 EMA's on the daily charts.I am happy with the EMA and MACD settings but have been playing with the stochastics and cannot make up my mind the best to use.

Regards Jon
 

techst

Active member
243 3
Sorry mate can't really help yah here, I rarely use the stochastics these days, I still find price the most reliable trading signal. I use the macd to show me when a stock becomes oversold. I'll then use price with a stock closing near the day's high. I may take a quick peek at the stochastic's after checking support, resistance, volume, my EMA's and the candles.
 

Fluke

Well-known member
456 1
techst said:
Sorry mate can't really help yah here, I rarely use the stochastics these days, I still find price the most reliable trading signal. I use the macd to show me when a stock becomes oversold. I'll then use price with a stock closing near the day's high. I may take a quick peek at the stochastic's after checking support, resistance, volume, my EMA's and the candles.
Thanks for your reply.
Interesting,have you changed your trading methods from the Elder Triple screen method.?
 

techst

Active member
243 3
Not really, I haven't changed the concept of the system completely. I just use the concept in different ways. For example. I plot the 12,26 Weekly EMA's roughly on a daily chart as the 70-130EMAs. These areas are still marking an important area for a stock but i just view it on the daily as well. But I'll also scan stocks using weekly MACD's to look for moves like BT-As recent surge and the huge return of strength that we've seen in the banks and life assurance/insurance and other finance sectors since the latter part of last year. I think it's important not to be changing your parameters like EMAs, MA's ,indicators etc because what your really learning here is about price. And if you keep changing your settings your going to be viewing price in different formats. I like to keep the indicators fixed so that the price moves behind my settings or my market 'lense' as Schwager once pondered. Slow Stochastics has become less important for me as I've learnt and practiced the type of entry that i find profitable. So, I know what i want to see before i enter, and so I need a short term indicator like the stochastic less and less. I hope this makes some sense to you! Because it's hard to explain but makes perfect sense to me, ....probably only me though.

I the triple screen method is a great starting for any trader. But i found that it is only a starting point, reading other books and work on technical analysis and piecing things together to come up with something that works for you. I can also see how this method ties in with other theories and trading concepts. For example looking at Dow Theory which states their are 3 trends happening all at one time, the 13-15EMA's or short term ema's track the theories short term trend. then the 70-130EMA tracks the intermediate as does a daily MACD. Looking at Stan Weinstein's Weekly 30MA which signals a 'continuation buy' point which is along the same lines as an intermediate correction level.

This is all just techncial analysis, then of course once your in a trade you have to manage it effectively but not micro manage it.
 

Fluke

Well-known member
456 1
techst said:
Not really, I haven't changed the concept of the system completely. I just use the concept in different ways. For example. I plot the 12,26 Weekly EMA's roughly on a daily chart as the 70-130EMAs. These areas are still marking an important area for a stock but i just view it on the daily as well. But I'll also scan stocks using weekly MACD's to look for moves like BT-As recent surge and the huge return of strength that we've seen in the banks and life assurance/insurance and other finance sectors since the latter part of last year. I think it's important not to be changing your parameters like EMAs, MA's ,indicators etc because what your really learning here is about price. And if you keep changing your settings your going to be viewing price in different formats. I like to keep the indicators fixed so that the price moves behind my settings or my market 'lense' as Schwager once pondered. Slow Stochastics has become less important for me as I've learnt and practiced the type of entry that i find profitable. So, I know what i want to see before i enter, and so I need a short term indicator like the stochastic less and less. I hope this makes some sense to you! Because it's hard to explain but makes perfect sense to me, ....probably only me though.

I the triple screen method is a great starting for any trader. But i found that it is only a starting point, reading other books and work on technical analysis and piecing things together to come up with something that works for you. I can also see how this method ties in with other theories and trading concepts. For example looking at Dow Theory which states their are 3 trends happening all at one time, the 13-15EMA's or short term ema's track the theories short term trend. then the 70-130EMA tracks the intermediate as does a daily MACD. Looking at Stan Weinstein's Weekly 30MA which signals a 'continuation buy' point which is along the same lines as an intermediate correction level.

This is all just techncial analysis, then of course once your in a trade you have to manage it effectively but not micro manage it.
Techst.
Thanks for taking the trouble to explain your trading method in such detail.
From your posts,I understand you have been using the Elder triple screen method for some time now,even though you have have modified his methods,to improve your trading.
I am pleased to see that you are still using his methods in this way,because I have only been using it since about Dec 05 and Its nice to have confirmation that the system really does work.

I have read several books on TA and charting and It was not until I read both Elder's books that I realised, I needed to construct a planned method for selecting trading opportunities.
I am now using his method as a framework together with some other trading set ups
and this has helped me to stop making so many stupid trades.
I am using trend line breaks,Elders EMA's and MACD,1-2-3 set ups and supp and resistance to name a few and am trading the FTSE 100 stocks, not the FTSE 250 yet.
Hope you keep posting Regards Jon.
 

Rex79

Member
72 0
Glad it's going well for you Fluke,

going back to to the stochastic question - i can't really remember why I'm using 5,5,5 - i saw it somewhere else and tried it - i liked it , so it stays for now until I don't need it - (it's still fairly early days for myself - and I like to see confirmation from a few different indicators on my daily charts).

I think Techst@ is well ahead on that score


as for Elder methods - i think they have steered me in the right direction - I have no doubt they work very well - but I haven't kept to his rules exactly, I keep adding, changing tweaking things. i think his intention was to explain a method of trading - choosing the tools is down to yourself. Don't get me wrong it's early days for myself - so I should exercise some caution with my comments.


anyway - i few messages back i mentioed ETI - entered this morning - and it took off well - I think it's got some milage in it - see what you think


I've made the switch to CFD's (today) and am a little unsure of theplatform - which concerns me a little!! Anyway hope it all keeps going well for you.


Rex


(ah - just read your other thread Techst@ after writing this - think I've just said the same)
 

Attachments

Fluke

Well-known member
456 1
Techst and Rex


Thought I would post a Sharescope copy of the ETI chart to show another filter I am using.

I use a 2% deviation channel on screen number 1 to show me when the price has fallen to the lowest point of its deviation.This together with the weekly EMA's and MACD helps me to select the shares that are over sold.
 

Attachments

techst

Active member
243 3
Good stuff guys i had 915 down on ETI as my potential buy trap price.

When i first read the Come in to my Trading Room what really struck home was the mindset required to trade. Then i picked the system parts of the book and lifted them so to speak and wrote them on word as rules and guidelines. There's a method in the book but it's not visually displayed. I've used the concept and built a system around it. I don't change any parameters at all. Normally if something hasn't worked and i make a loss, it's a 'business man risk' that I've taken. Or I look at how i managed the trade and my entry also. I don't think that changing my indicators would have made any difference to the outcome. Because it's the mental game that takes longer to conquer than finding a method.
 

Rex79

Member
72 0
morning guys, hope your all well -

just an update - screwed up on ETI - bought at 897 - then was un expectedly away from my computer for a few days - so had to phone up and close the position - as I wasn't aware of which way prices/markets were moving - sold out at 916. only to watch prices move up around 940/950 - oh well, at least no loss made

lesson learnt there for myself ! - will you know what your plans were if you suddenly lost your computer ?
 

techst

Active member
243 3
ahh! all those practical mishaps and lessons that you don't find in books are just as important!
 

techst

Active member
243 3
Still Trading

Well, I haven't posted here for a while and I see looking back, this thread was quite sucessful. I'm now managing a private account with a profit split, a mini-hedge fund if you will.

I'm still using the same technical and indicators and nothing much has changed in this department. What has changed Is my trade selection. Through study of previous trades and reviewing my records, I've tried to weed out lower odds trades. I'll post a few charts here and if things pick up I'll keep posting. Some of these trades wont be for you, wont fit your system,etc. They are only setups, only an entry so I'll post a trade and post and my exit. But this is no advice to long/short any stock, just an insight to how I trade FTSE350 stocks. I enjoyed sharing thoughts, views and ideas when this thread was up and running and would like to return to those interesting discussions.

AQP

I traded this stock long on the last trendline touch, the stock has dipped below the value area noted on the chart by the two moving averages (70,130EMAs). I like to be patient and wait for stocks to come back to this area. I then zero in on the price action set some short-term support and resistance areas, when the stock breaks above a local resistance on strong volume, I have an entry. That's only an entry, It's not 100% percent, no system is. My short term zone here was 1550 with a target of 1650-1700. Now if I had not done my home work I wouldn't have caught this. But I tend to enter these buy stops on down or inactive days, If the trade doesn't materialise, I cancel the pending order. This one triggered right at the close on Friday (11th May). Although I'm giving up alot of profit buy not entering the stock earlier, I have a good chance of a 5-10% gain first of all. This is because I've waited for the stock to show me that it's in a bullish mood. You could argue that friday was the real sign of strength, so I should have time to evaluate the strength of the move and exit of a small loss if the trade doesn't play out.

Any thoughts on this trade?, any swing traders still out there? I keep the thread going here if we see some interest. Thanks for reading.
 

Attachments