- Thread starter brewski1984
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M

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100 trades and it takes 5 to bring you back to break even. That's where you're going wrong imo.

100 trades and it takes 5 to bring you back to break even. That's where you're going wrong imo.

State the obvious and that's exactly my point, I get ahead and I can't stay ahead.

I guess I'm not losing so it can't be all that bad for a spread betting mug like me

M

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State the obvious and that's exactly my point, I get ahead and I can't stay ahead.

I guess I'm not losing so it can't be all that bad for a spread betting mug like me

OK sorry I didnt mean to state the obvious, but you were wondering whether it was because you had overtraded. So no I dont think you had overtraded, you possibly want to look at your strategy (obviously). I feel for you though, I too just took my 4th in a row, but then the 5th turned out OK.

Wish you luck though and hope it turns around for you

Is 100 trades in nearly 6 months too many?

If the market gave you 100 opportunities in 6 months then the answer is 'No'.

But if there were only 20 real opportunities in 6 months then the answer is 'Yes'.

I’d say the number of real opportunities in 6 months is closer to 20.

Also don't be a pot-shoter who thinks he's made it every time he gets 20 pips. It's a formula to loose. The market gives you one advantage and one advantage only over the casinos. Find it if you don't know what it is.

I guess I'm not losing so it can't be all that bad for a spread betting mug like me

A normal broker is completely different in terms of prices and stop handling characteristics.

Can't you say more about your strategy, which markets, risk:reward etc. Why not go through each trade and look at things like drawdown on each trade, max profit that could have been achieved etc and make some adjustments.

If it's any help, since May 2012, my account has grown by 15% and then slowly gone back to zero. It is now up to 12% again. 0.5%-1% risked on each trade. I have learned to be happy with one win out of 9 or so trades.

C

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Dont be discouraged breaking even after 100 trades is far better than most manage. I was green last year but have been struggling so far this year. Maybe take a break and re-evaluate. Good luck

But just to bring in some probabilities, even if you had a large edge, 55% win 45% loss, on Risk: reward 1:1, (assuming results are binomial), the probability of getting 5 losers in a row is 1.8%, so over 100 trades, quite reasonable what you're saying would occur. Also the probability of you being break even or worse from these 100 trades is just over 18%.

So perhaps you either know in yourself something is not right in the system (or your application of it), or perhaps you have unrealistic expectations of what can occur over 100 trades.

If the market gave you 100 opportunities in 6 months then the answer is 'No'.

But if there were only 20 real opportunities in 6 months then the answer is 'Yes'.

I’d say the number of real opportunities in 6 months is closer to 20.

I'd disagree, by 9pm on Monday i'd had 13 trades and 0 losers

Hi brewski,100 trades and it takes 5 to bring you back to break even. That's where you're going wrong imo.

I think malaguti may have got to the crux of your problem. The implication of your results is that you're losing a lot more on the losers than you're making on the winners. You'll need t a very high success ratio to make this sustainable in the long term and, that in itself, is a difficult thing to sustain. This is pure speculation on my part - you'll know from your stats whether or not there's any truth to it. If there is, you need to work on ways of cutting the losers sooner and letting the winners run. That ol' chestnut I know - easy to say - not so easy to put into practice!

Tim.

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