Stuck

[DionysusToast]

Stats look good to me - overcoming the spreads is more than most people do.

I think a minor adjustment is in order more than a major overhaul. Impossible to say what though without being in the OPs chair.

 

[brewski1984]

Well, I've taken a break from trading recently (although I haven't been able to avoid the odd small stakes gambler) and I think I've managed to make a tweak to the system that should improve the results. If I was to start a journal would anybody really be bothered or should I just update this in 6 months?

 

[Shakone]

Well, I've taken a break from trading recently (although I haven't been able to avoid the odd small stakes gambler) and I think I've managed to make a tweak to the system that should improve the results. If I was to start a journal would anybody really be bothered or should I just update this in 6 months?

A journal is something you do for yourself brewski (in public or in private), so it doesn't matter if others are bothered or not.

 

[cablemonster]

I haven't been able to avoid the odd small stakes gambler

it sounds like you are still gambling albeit with chump change. Can you go the rest of May without placing a single gamble if you had to? serious question. I fear you are still looking for kicks in the marketplace. You need to foster the same attitude towards losing 10p as losing £1000. Are you expecting something from trading it cant give you? Long term profitable trading is actually quite a dull affair, if you are trading for stimulation/kicks it could cost you. just my 2c from my experience.

 

[tar]

Well, I've taken a break from trading recently (although I haven't been able to avoid the odd small stakes gambler) and I think I've managed to make a tweak to the system that should improve the results. If I was to start a journal would anybody really be bothered or should I just update this in 6 months?

IMO a public journal may be useful for you "comments and tips from others ... etc " , but most likely it will put you under the pressure , you know because everyone is looking ...

 

[resistance]

IMO a public journal may be useful for you "comments and tips from others ... etc " , but most likely it will put you under the pressure , you know because everyone is looking ...

So what is the best idea to keep going without feeling that pressure because if will effect the trading for sure. May be some comments can help in making better decision or some confuse only.

 

[brewski1984]

it sounds like you are still gambling albeit with chump change. Can you go the rest of May without placing a single gamble if you had to? serious question. I fear you are still looking for kicks in the marketplace. You need to foster the same attitude towards losing 10p as losing £1000. Are you expecting something from trading it cant give you? Long term profitable trading is actually quite a dull affair, if you are trading for stimulation/kicks it could cost you. just my 2c from my experience.

Been thinking about this for the last couple days and I had a whole essay written on answering but I don't think it's necessary for me to post it. I found having a completely seperate account that I could take the occasional chump change gambling trade on as opposed to being tempted into higher stakes on my main account was the lesser of 2 evils.

 

[petterjohnson]

You are right, and I am totally agree with you.

 

[PollyM]

brewski1984

Sorry to come in on this late, and you may have already given this information, again apologies, but which forex pairs and timeframes do you prefer to trade?

I'll run them through the inde benchmark and see what the outcomes are. May take a little while but will help put things into perspective.

PollyM

 

[brewski1984]

What's the inde benchmark?

 

[PollyM]

It's a backtesting and trading signal system, which once backtested the same interface can be switched to use for trading signals and forward testing, all on spreadsheet with each trade shown in numbers and on chart so you can follow everything.

Sample size for backtesting would be around 10,000 periods, applying the INDE calculation, a similar formula to Wilder's Directional Index (+/-DI). It's based on pure stop-and-reverse trading, stop loss is inherent in the basic trading signal output, and done to establish a 'minimum standard' for return expectations at different time settings in different timeframes. In other words, if you can do better through experience rather than calculation then you're doing well, otherwise why bother straining your brain cells. More information's on the indetrader website.

If you let me know your preferred pairs and timeframes then I can output benchmark figures to which you can compare your returns.

 

[brewski1984]

I mainly use gbp/usd, eur/usd and usd/jpy on daily timeframe.

 

[PollyM]

Ok, I'll see how much historical data is available on the daily timeframe and generate some figures and ratios by the end of next week.

Is there any particular period that I can also focus on over the last months/year so to give you a comparable with your actual returns?

 

[Rambo35]

I have absolutely no luck whatsoever. Ok, well I have a bit of luck because if I didn't then I'd have no money left but still. I just can't get ahead and stay ahead and it's getting really frustrating! Just closed my 4th loss in a row and I'm currently getting rinsed in the 5th which will put me back at evens yet again after nearly 100 trades since last September

Maybe it's time to take a break and understand what caused your losses. It makes no sense that five losses will wipe out profits from 100 trades. Sounds like you need to re-visit your TP as well as SL levels. Either way, stop trading and understand what caused your losses.

 

[brewski1984]

5 losses didn't wipe out 100 trades worth of profit. I've already taken a break and tweaked a few things and am posting my trades in a journal on here.

 

[PollyM]

Ok, I'll see how much historical data is available on the daily timeframe and generate some figures and ratios by the end of next week.

Is there any particular period that I can also focus on over the last months/year so to give you a comparable with your actual returns?

Brewski1984

I'm having a job finding reliable forex data to undertake the preferred INDE benchmark calculation covering around 10,000 periods on the daily timeframe. I can go back to around 1986 on Forex Rate (Dukascopy) but when I've briefly scanned the downloaded data it includes the 'empty' weekends which would distort the results.

I did think of looking at just the period of last September to this February when you first posted but the sample is too small to generate useful results, and subject to curve fitting uncertainty at most time settings.

I'll have a think while on holiday over the next couple of weeks as to how best approach this, but in the mean time if anyone can point me in the direction of some good forex data download sites then it would be much appreciated.

It may also be useful to point out that when trading forex there is a much greater incidence of outside days compared to indices for example, where intra-day volatility can move price both above and below the previous day's range. This can trip up most backtesting systems, as outside days can 'hide' double reversals, where you begin and end the day in a long (or short) position, but in between the intra-day volatility has led your trading system to issue a short (or long) signal only to then reverse again back to long (or short). Most backtesting systems will not detect these double reversals, which is a major reason why forward testing offers differing results.

 

[brewski1984]

Please don't go through too much effort just for me mate.

 

[Rambo35]

5 losses didn't wipe out 100 trades worth of profit. I've already taken a break and tweaked a few things and am posting my trades in a journal on here.

Then I think you are on the right track

 

[PollyM]

No problem, I'll have a think. Maybe start a thread on backtesting.

 

[PollyM]

Nearly there, I'll start a new thread on this soon.

Essentially, I've generated some key ratios across different markets and timeframes, which are interesting reading, and will help new traders weigh up the form.

Always best to base your expectations on worst case scenarios and ratchet up from there, rather than living in blind hope and falling in the abyss! Unless of course the school of hard knocks is how you like it - once is enough for me.

I'll provide all the code, opensource, so that you can replicate the results and mod it until your heart's content.

Here's to the second bite of the cherry!