How will you trade todays UK election

shifting sands

Junior member
19 3
Morning, what's your trading strategy for today? Feel free to share.

At the moment I am wait and see what volatility we get, a conservative win sell the pound. Brexit negotiations loom ahead.

Labour win would savage sterling, would love to buy it way down there. My preferred option the drop will be extreme. Great dip buying opportunity, long term would mean a softer or even no Brexit.

Re: ECB I'd like to sell EUR/USD if we get up to 1.15

Best of luck everyone
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,617 1,042
I am long a number of UK stocks, mostly FTSE250 or AIM100. Anticipating a relief rally to restore their previous uptrends once Conservative majority announced.

No positions on GBP pairs, I expect all these to drift sideways possibly until terms of Brexit deal are clear.

I am long EUR/USD from 1.09 but no price target, I'll get out when the trend looks really weak.
 
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counter_violent

Legendary member
9,862 2,530
Morning, what's your trading strategy for today? Feel free to share.

At the moment I am wait and see what volatility we get, a conservative win sell the pound. Brexit negotiations loom ahead.

Labour win would savage sterling, would love to buy it way down there. My preferred option the drop will be extreme. Great dip buying opportunity, long term would mean a softer or even no Brexit.

Re: ECB I'd like to sell EUR/USD if we get up to 1.15

Best of luck everyone
We are quite happy with the Brexit result thank you.
 

counter_violent

Legendary member
9,862 2,530
Good for you Mr moderator, however that's a political viewpoint. This is a trading thread :p
Given that the political situation is the only thing that matters today, I just thought I'd mention it. The fireworks will start just after 10pm UK
 

Fill_Or_Kill

Member
93 19
Good for you Mr moderator, however that's a political viewpoint. This is a trading thread :p
Solid burn.

Those using LMAX stay away from the exit poll, their matching engine is completely switched off from 10pm to 10:05pm and the exit poll is released 10pm. It's plausible a 1%ish move could occur during this 5 min period if a wild result. I'd be completely flat before this unless you're very happy with your market position. No stops or exits will be matched until 10:05 - I imagine they're concerned about their own exposure on this frankly, but I'm told there's nothing they can do. A tad unimpressive.

Most people are guessing a max of a +0.5% reaction, if any, on the exit poll, but be wary if you're trading proper money.
 

shifting sands

Junior member
19 3
Solid burn.

I'd be completely flat before this unless you're very happy with your market position. No stops or exits will be matched until 10:05 - I imagine they're concerned about their own exposure on this frankly, but I'm told there's nothing they can do. A tad unimpressive.

Most people are guessing a max of a +0.5% reaction, if any, on the exit poll, but be wary if you're trading proper money.
Sidelines till it all shakes out, definitely. That is particularly rubbish re: Lmax, don't use them but I like their daily briefings. If I WAS punting the pound for a probable tory win... GBP/JPY might be a bigger jump than cable, dollar a little bid today. And status quo=risk on. GBP/JPY would get floored with a Labour win tho. I'd buy that :)
 
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tomorton

Legendary member
7,617 1,042
I am long a number of UK stocks, mostly FTSE250 or AIM100. Anticipating a relief rally to restore their previous uptrends once Conservative majority announced.

No positions on GBP pairs, I expect all these to drift sideways possibly until terms of Brexit deal are clear.

I am long EUR/USD from 1.09 but no price target, I'll get out when the trend looks really weak.

Relief rally came in alright so a little £ gain there but it seems muted, prob due to lost Conservative majority. Thank you so much Mrs May.

GBP has dropped for the same reason and has come below its recent range against USD. I don't see it falling much further after today's reaction. It was already falling strongly against AUD and therefore NZD but other reasons apply there.
 

shifting sands

Junior member
19 3
Relief rally came in alright so a little £ gain there but it seems muted, prob due to lost Conservative majority. Thank you so much Mrs May.

GBP has dropped for the same reason and has come below its recent range against USD. I don't see it falling much further after today's reaction. It was already falling strongly against AUD and therefore NZD but other reasons apply there.
Could be worse, had a few nibbles buying the £ thinking the exit poll would play out as incorrect. All stopped out at cost so no pain but no gain. Scalpers probably did better. Anyone long sterling beforehand would have been slaughtered.
 

gerryg

Established member
900 6
Could be worse, had a few nibbles buying the £ thinking the exit poll would play out as incorrect. All stopped out at cost so no pain but no gain. Scalpers probably did better. Anyone long sterling beforehand would have been slaughtered.
Holding positions between major event is a suicide, especially where Britain fate as independent country is determined. Polls were correct at this time and those bullish on Pound was heavily burned.
I see more room for drop maybe 1.24 is the target, as there is a risk that May won't form coalition for Majority or labor may get help from other minority parties.
 

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