spanish89's Daily Trading Journal!! Whooooo ;)

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arabianights said:
Lol... financial times is a bit slow ;)

If you want to trade the news you need a real time news feed. E.g. retail sales today comes out at 9:30... by 9:30:01 automated systems will have started hitting markets, people like me's brains will be processing information and hitting it in another second, salesmen will call up smart money who will be hitting markets within a minute or two...

E.g. Bloomberg/Reuters.

Also a squawkbox (not the kind gooseman uses) where someone reads out other bits of news you might not have seen.

E.g. Ransquawk, sigma etc
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haha of course... i dont trade of news, but i like to be in the loop on things. even though i really dont like the whole emh theory, i still wonder how much of the news are actually priced in.... do you know any good reuters feeders by the way? ive been trying to find some the other day
 
Trading the news is doomed.
Expectations and their relationship to the news is a little more significant.
You'll be right 30% of the time, the rest you'll be wrong or knocked out of the trade by the volatility of the instrument.
Trading the reaction to the news is completely different.
Richard
 
Gotta disagree there... sometimes it's incredibly obvious how to react to the news.

Agree that most figures trading the reaction is a better idea though.
 
arabianights said:
Gotta disagree there... sometimes it's incredibly obvious how to react to the news.

Agree that most figures trading the reaction is a better idea though.
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haha sometimes what is incredibly obvious means you are probably missing something or are very lucky. id go trading the reaction as i stated some time earlier on this forum. actually ill rephrase that, id prefer trading opposite the reaction, when the reaction is running out of steam
 
agree with arabian-most of the time the figures are useless but sometimes (not very often) like twice today on swiss rate announcement and massive uk retail sales you can get on the back of very sharp moves.
 
ivantchourilov said:
haha sometimes what is incredibly obvious means you are probably missing something or are very lucky. id go trading the reaction as i stated some time earlier on this forum. actually ill rephrase that, id prefer trading opposite the reaction, when the reaction is running out of steam
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Ok... so in the examples given by gooseman.

SNB doesn't cut rates. People are worried about a possible rate rise and one is priced in. You think the conf and euroswiss are going to sell off when they don't raise? :LOL:

Retail sales comes out as 8.1% y/y and 3.5% m/m. Exepection was a for a month on month drop. How likely, especially if you've been following the markets is it that this is priced in?

I reckon a lot of people who claim you can never trade the figure tried to trade the dax on candian cpi today or something ;)
 
mmm yep... bit risky though... these are the kind of things that produce spike's ie. they go up as quickly as down or visa versa OR they dont ??? ... if you get on the wrong side then it curtain's...

To me its gambling.. based on NOISE... most NEWS is absolute tosh, and to try and find a "reason" as to why the markets react to it... (like spanish is doing) he openly gambles on the news like nonfarm payrolls etc etc...

I do not doubt that some people make money trading news, but I cannot see for the life of me its any way to make a living in this game...
 
are you mad? news (of the major variety) is the basis of macroeconomic policy. i agree plenty of the news us utter horse plop but things that are drastically out of line, such as retail sales or cpi are the fundamental weather vanes of the economy and to label them as noise and gambling i'm sorry is just stupidity. if you want to gamble enter a figure which could be heads or tails with a position. what we're talking about here is trading after an announcement. swissie for exampl has not spiked today-it has rallied sharply and stayed there for a very good fundamental reason.....a rate hike did not transpire.
 
arabianights said:
Ok... so in the examples given by gooseman.

SNB doesn't cut rates. People are worried about a possible rate rise and one is priced in. You think the conf and euroswiss are going to sell off when they don't raise? :LOL:

Retail sales comes out as 8.1% y/y and 3.5% m/m. Exepection was a for a month on month drop. How likely, especially if you've been following the markets is it that this is priced in?

I reckon a lot of people who claim you can never trade the figure tried to trade the dax on candian cpi today or something ;)
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hahaha im sorry i didnt mean to say you cant trade the figure for financial gain. i think that there are so many different ways to trade profitably out there that its crazy. its interesting though, at the end of the day, you look at technical position trading and fundamental investment, a lot of the positions are similar. different approaches and different models all yield different results. interesting figure on the retail sales front, i completely missed it, probably because i was at work. that cannot be accurate. where the hell did that rise come from?
 
gooseman said:
are you mad? news (of the major variety) is the basis of macroeconomic policy. i agree plenty of the news us utter horse plop but things that are drastically out of line, such as retail sales or cpi are the fundamental weather vanes of the economy and to label them as noise and gambling i'm sorry is just stupidity. if you want to gamble enter a figure which could be heads or tails with a position. what we're talking about here is trading after an announcement. swissie for exampl has not spiked today-it has rallied sharply and stayed there for a very good fundamental reason.....a rate hike did not transpire.
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i have to agree here, news, whether you trade them or not, impact the market. these things really give an indication of where the economy is and where its heading. a lot of it does cause spikes, which is why you need to filter a lot of news out based on how important you think it is to the long term. no matter how good the technical indicators are, if the fundamentals are not there, there will be no trend or reversal. its simple. as i see it the idea is to interpret the news in such a way, that you can understand what will happen in the future in terms of how it will impact policy makers. the news that come out and affect the short term cause spikes, however data such as CPI is important to the long term. remember longer-term data can be interpreted in many ways.
 
gooseman said:
are you mad? news (of the major variety) is the basis of macroeconomic policy. i agree plenty of the news us utter horse plop but things that are drastically out of line, such as retail sales or cpi are the fundamental weather vanes of the economy and to label them as noise and gambling i'm sorry is just stupidity. if you want to gamble enter a figure which could be heads or tails with a position. what we're talking about here is trading after an announcement. swissie for exampl has not spiked today-it has rallied sharply and stayed there for a very good fundamental reason.....a rate hike did not transpire.
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MAD!!! "stupid" yep if you mean NOT trading the news then I suppose I am yes... :-0

ok... I have no doubt that the "news" does move the market.. agreed...(though in which way and for how long nobody can know)

Further, I believe that no single piece of news can be fundamental to price thus.. betting based on the news is daft .... (but if that makes me stupid in your view then ok..)


Like I said, I have no doubt that some can a some point make money from a contrarian news the "experts" were not expecting... but I wouldnt base any strategy on it !!
 
Of course some items of news are fundamental to price. To take your arguement to extremes... You can trade futures on non farm payroll. If you had this figure in advance what are you gonna do?
 
Trading the market reaction to news is often profitable and is quite distinct from gambling by taking a position in one direction prior to the news in the hope you are correct.
Beginners then get the idea in their heads to place OCO bracket orders to catch the move if it actually happens. They usually get bad fills and the volatility frequently takes them out.
My earlier comments were simply a warning to anyone inexperienced enough to be irrationally exuberant about trading simplistic ideas or who mistake luck for skill.
Emotion and excitement are for gamblers, not for experienced successful traders.
Richard
 
Taking a position prior to the news is a very different thing though. I can think of a few examples where it may be a good idea but would never recommend it to, say, Spanish ;)

Actually that reminds me... Spanish if you have what you call a hedge and the rest of us call paying twice the spread in June FTSE then that is coming off the board tomorrow. If you don't close the position your spread bet company will either roll it or close it for you.
 
I actually said that no "single" piece of news is fundamental to price !!

I dont care if you dont agree with me... ... but dont misqoute me please...
 
normbeef said:
MAD!!! "stupid" yep if you mean NOT trading the news then I suppose I am yes... :-0

ok... I have no doubt that the "news" does move the market.. agreed...(though in which way and for how long nobody can know)

Further, I believe that no single piece of news can be fundamental to price thus.. betting based on the news is daft .... (but if that makes me stupid in your view then ok..)


Like I said, I have no doubt that some can a some point make money from a contrarian news the "experts" were not expecting... but I wouldnt base any strategy on it !!
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i understand exactly what you mean, thus i dont trade on news, i just keep a good eye on them. i think they are important to observe, you never know what you may find :) the only times i use news to trade is when there is a very unexpected news item that causes a major sell off or a buy. i tend to base my opinion that a lot overdo the moves and i try to take a contrarian stance. the other thing is that i try to be out of the market during major news coming out. the things is because i mostly trade the SPI 200 (underlying market being asx 200) i tend to have the advantage of reacting before the major Australian traders can react because they are all sleeping lol. its not a major edge, however every little bit helps :)
 
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