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manraygun, May I ask why you didn't take the trade on the first 2 mini retracements, especially the 2nd one when it stopped just short of the first mini retracement? I notice on the 5 minute chart that retracement is a lot cleaner. Just curious as to when you or anyone else decides which retracement tells them when to pull the trigger?
Thanks
Thanks
I don’t consider myself an expert on entries by any means but here are a few reasons I can offer for waiting.
There was a pretty steep ascent preceding the break of DL, meaning price might move sideways for a bit before reversing (if it does reverse). This wasn’t a situation where you have two or three LHs before the line break which might argue for getting in quickly after (or even before) the line break. In fact, my entry is right after what I consider the first stride break / lower high.
Regarding the first mini retracement, based on watching price action on the 1 min for a while I’ve observed that reversals often take more than two or three bars before they “stick”. In other words, given the pace of price movement here at the end of the day (as opposed to the open say), a trend reversal seems not likely to happen so quickly. Looking at it that way might mean missing some trades obviously. Ditto for the 2nd mini retracement which I understand why you say it looks goods. "Let the market show its hand" sticks in my head.
As does something Db mentioned recently in another post...
“Note also that the first retracement is not always the cleanest. If you want a tight stop, the first RET may throw you out. Quite often it's the second RET that is the more capitulative.”
I wasn’t watching the 5 min in this case.
Now price has moved above my DP. If it had been placed at 98, the risk would have been 8 points.
Context in action...
After the failure at 4440 or 50 and the reetry in the range and the supply line break and the break of the midpoint the direction was pretty clear and the potential target is the top of the range (4540) and then there might be resistance at the midpoint of the november to january range at 4600.
Very interesting. The thing is that one has to be available when things happen...like the failed breakout and the reversal entry at the bottom of the range...
The other thing is that price (or the market) tells us what to do - one just has to listen...and sit on his hands if it is quiet...
After the failure at 4440 or 50 and the reetry in the range and the supply line break and the break of the midpoint the direction was pretty clear and the potential target is the top of the range (4540) and then there might be resistance at the midpoint of the november to january range at 4600.
Very interesting. The thing is that one has to be available when things happen...like the failed breakout and the reversal entry at the bottom of the range...
The other thing is that price (or the market) tells us what to do - one just has to listen...and sit on his hands if it is quiet...
Resistance at top of April-July range, 4560?
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At a point in really starts to make sense...finally...:smart:
This is again the micro, but the macro view would be seeing potential buyers at 4530.
So for me - even in this mess - the path of least reasistance would be short...
Until support is found...
Also the often cited sentence: "Jugde the market by its own action" starts to be more than a phrase...
This is again the micro, but the macro view would be seeing potential buyers at 4530.
So for me - even in this mess - the path of least reasistance would be short...
Until support is found...
Also the often cited sentence: "Jugde the market by its own action" starts to be more than a phrase...
Here is what I would see as context...
Potential support at the other extreme of the range...
...and the reason for messy action is the trading around the midpoint where the balance of power is found...and for that it is unclear who has the upper hand...
That's what I learned so far in terms of AMT...
Potential support at the other extreme of the range...
...and the reason for messy action is the trading around the midpoint where the balance of power is found...and for that it is unclear who has the upper hand...
That's what I learned so far in terms of AMT...
dbphoenix
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Sellers are not "found". Sellers are always present. That does not mean, however, that sellers are in control, one of the more prevalent misunderstandings about price movement. It is buyers who are in control, both on the way up and on the way down, for if there are no buyers, there are no transactions. Ctrl+F "support" and "resistance" in the book.
Db
Db
Thanks for the reply.
Based on my reading of your book, I would expect that large buyers and sellers (market movers) who watch longer intervals are still well aware of the April - July range. I think it’s correct to consider the top of this range an area of past “intense interest.” As buyers and sellers “seek value”, they could re-arrive at the top level as value -- despite there being considerable buying and selling above and below it more recently.
From the "Wyckoff and Auction Market Theory" section of your SLAB book:
3) Traders seek value; value is price over time; price is arrived at by negotiation between buyers and sellers.
5) One can expect to find support where the most substantial buying has occurred in the past and resistance* where the most substantial selling has occurred. This does not mean that anyone who bought at a particular price at some point in the past still holds what he bought. In fact, no one who is viewing this past activity may have been part of it at all. But anyone who looks at it in whatever form will see the obvious level of interest overall as well as those price levels where interest was most intense. Whether or not this intense interest will reoccur is unknowable, but the preconditions for unusual activity are there.
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