SLAyers' Notes

[manraygun]

Whatever one does from this point forward for the day, this morning provided an object lesson in analysis, determination of danger points, and assessment of risk. Even if one missed 86, which I posted at 0836, price returned to 91 ten minutes later. What's the danger point? What's the risk? Is the trader willing to accept that risk? If he doesn't know any of this, I hope he's not trading.

Db

My danger points on a chart annotated with dbs comments from this morning.

 

[dbphoenix]

Gringo might chime in on this later, but, in the meantime, I want to point out that how one managed today depended on how he tracks demand and supply. The SLA is not unyieldingly rigid when it comes to trading parabolic moves in either direction, and it's up to the trader to determine where important support and resistance lie in order to avoid exiting trades that ought to be left alone.

Here, for example, if one had tracked the move downward tightly, he'd have been out day before yesterday. However, he'd be back in yesterday, either by shorting the dog or by taking the subsequent ret. Either way, today would not have presented any difficulties.

Or he could have just left his original lines alone (the green), using the daily as a referent (today would have meant nothing at all to someone trading the dailies). He is, in any of these cases, still in.

 

[dbphoenix]

My danger points on a chart annotated with dbs comments from this morning.

That's fine, as far as it goes. However, tape reading in hindsight is pretty much masturbatory. Unless one is watching price move, it is at best an intellectual exercise. Something you'd do in class.

There were several important clues as to what price was going to do, even though one might not know exactly where price was going to do it. But going into it would be equally masturbatory.

If you really want to do this, you're going to have to watch this stuff in real time and take real-time notes, either on the chart or on Notepad and provide those notes, as is, unedited, along with the chart. Otherwise, I have no way of knowing what you're looking at or what you think about it. And without any of that, this is pretty much a waste of your time.

Db

 

[Kleft]

Location + behaviour = opportunity for profit, if one follows the plan.

 

[Kleft]

If you really want to do this, you're going to have to watch this stuff in real time and take real-time notes, either on the chart or on Notepad and provide those notes, as is, unedited, along with the chart. Otherwise, I have no way of knowing what you're looking at or what you think about it. And without any of that, this is pretty much a waste of your time.

Db

Highly recommend anyone following this who has not already gone through this stage to give it a go, preferably without tangling oneself in trading decisions.
Time spent on this will prove invaluable as one develops their trading plan.

 

[manraygun]

That's fine, as far as it goes. However, tape reading in hindsight is pretty much masturbatory. Unless one is watching price move, it is at best an intellectual exercise. Something you'd do in class.

There were several important clues as to what price was going to do, even though one might not know exactly where price was going to do it. But going into it would be equally masturbatory.

If you really want to do this, you're going to have to watch this stuff in real time and take real-time notes, either on the chart or on Notepad and provide those notes, as is, unedited, along with the chart. Otherwise, I have no way of knowing what you're looking at or what you think about it. And without any of that, this is pretty much a waste of your time.

Db

OK, that makes sense, real time notes. I would not in real time have realized the midpoint of the September-November rally was in play, of that I am pretty sure. I'm used to thinking of 50% point relative to most recent SH and SL. Valuable lesson, even in hindsight. Thanks.

 

[dbphoenix]

OK, that makes sense, real time notes. I would not in real time have realized the midpoint of the September-November rally was in play, of that I am pretty sure. I'm used to thinking of 50% point relative to most recent SH and SL. Valuable lesson, even in hindsight. Thanks.

That's the sort of thing one has to do in advance. You may even have to write a checklist for yourself. No one need know.

Db

 

[Gring0]

There is a lot of potential support around where price is now. Every potential support area is 10 or 20 points lower. There are also medians galore. This can be seen by looking to the left on the weekly chart. Price also has gone down quite a bit. This doesn't mean we've reached the end but looking at the hourly I'll be paying close attention to how things evolve as there is sooner or later going to be a reversal to the upside.

Hourly has had an SL breach (tighter line) and may show some signs of strength. In the absence of that strength I might just relax and image how terrified those who've mainly seen price going up regularly must be feeling. Many times in the past it seemed like the bear market was upon us, yet demand showed up and propelled price into new high grounds. Even this time it's a possibility. To avoid all this confusion the lines are the best guide. Worst case scenario is we enter incorrectly and we just exit if price goes the other way. Stick with SLA in this hour as the oscillators and indicators have tendency to lead one astray when the string is extended more than usual.

Gringo

p.s. I am adding the NDX chart to see how it looks. Notice the clarity of a TR extended into current time.

 

[dbphoenix]

I'm afraid I have to disagree about the lines being the best guide. In situations like these, when The Money is calling the shots, it's best to focus on what The Money is looking at, and it isn't lines. They're focused on value areas and swing points (those points at which sellers ran out of buyers or buyers re-entered the market). And there are those nonsense century marks, which toss logic out the window but work simply because everybody is watching everybody else watching these marks, like a bunch of nervous National Guardsmen standing around with loaded weapons and watching a crowd advance.

The trade this morning, of course, was at 0530, unavailable to most Americans but easily taken by Europeans.

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

Those who are casually interested in this but not onboard will note in their review of past posts that price broke the lower limit of its weekly trend channel in August, returned to it, fell out of it again four weeks ago, tested it over the next two weeks before falling out of it again for good. The SLAyer, therefore, had quite a lead over those who follow the 200dma.

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

Note that we are bouncing off the midpoint of the Sep-Nov rally, which coincided with the last swing low before price took off the third week of October. The daily and hourly people see this.

Db

That swing low is turning out to be important. It'll be interesting to see if it's just coincidence.

Fortunately, the SLA prevents one from having to stew over all that during the trade.

Db

 

[Gring0]

The weakness is still persistent. Price wasn't able to really bounce or show demand coming in. I had thought after so many days of drops supply must be tired. If value is still not being found, then it does become interesting how far down they're willing to go to find it.

 

[Gring0]

I am getting impressed with how many times my buttock has been spared when I chose to exit in the face of wobbly price behaviour.

 

[gotu]

I am getting impressed with how many times my buttock has been spared when I chose to exit in the face of wobbly price behaviour.

Hello Gringo, what is your exit criteria?

 

[Gring0]

Hello Gringo, what is your exit criteria?

It's in the SLA-AMT documents at countless locations. I use lined, swings, lower highs, higher lows, duration, dogs, and emotions for exits.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

I'm going to be out of commission for a while. Everyone has my best wishes.

Study.

Db

 

[Gring0]

NQ hourly.

 

[manraygun]

NQ hourly.

Support at April Swing Low?

 

[EldnitJ]

Support at April Swing Low?

Yep, dipped just below and closed on that spring swing low. As Db stated, one would normally be looking for a retracement/reversal after such a move down. Maybe this is where it reverses.

 

[manraygun]

At db and Kleft’s suggestion, as an exercise I took real-time notes off the 1 minute chart Wednesday night and again Thursday morning, observing for about three hours in all. Attached are a chart and set of notes from each session. I wasn’t actually trading so the pressure was off in that sense. The only editing I did after-the-fact was for typos. The line colors are random. I welcome constructive criticism and/or enthusiastic praise, as warranted. Thanks.

Edit: I will repost charts with notes included.