sick of 'gurus': new trader asking advice from normal traders?

[Johnnyalpha8]

Good luck with that then.

Tell me though, how precisely do you NOT forward test? Take a trade based on your backtest model and then close your eyes and hope it runs as it 'should'?

What happens when the levels and patterns and formations you've decided constitute a setup start failing to perform as they ‘should’?

It’s ALL forward testing. Testing is a misnomer in this context as you’re using live capital, but the constant awareness of performance and the mind-set of analysing what is going on is always ON.

We seem to be at cross-definitions. By your definition, which equates to (placing trades with live capital after your back testing is over) you are correct, forward testing cannot be avoided. What I mean by 'forward testing' performing more 'simulated' trades on an out of data sample.

 

[TheBramble]

We seem to be at cross-definitions. By your definition, which equates to (placing trades with live capital after your back testing is over) you are correct, forward testing cannot be avoided. What I mean by 'forward testing' performing more 'simulated' trades on an out of data sample.

Out of sample data (which is what I think you mean) is simply a different set of historical data used to run your tests against to determine how tight your curve fitting hopefully hasn’t been. Nothing to do with forward data as it unfolds in real-time.

 

[Johnnyalpha8]

Out of sample data (which is what I think you mean) is simply a different set of historical data used to run your tests against to determine how tight your curve fitting hopefully hasn’t been. Nothing to do with forward data as it unfolds in real-time.

Ok, I assume you are saying that the only unbiased kind of forward testing is using real time data, not some past set of 'out of sample data', that the tester may or may not know how it behaves before the test. Fair enough.

But, I digress.My point is that 'if' the backtest contained no curve fittin/optimizing. Then, no forward testing is necessary.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Thanks mate for your comment ))))) Really appreciate that. :cheesy:

The biais is called Dunning-Kruger effect, a Nobel Price 2000 in the cognitive comportment research and the full name of the research is "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments".

A good compact version

And some more about illusory superiority effect:

Dunning-Kruger effect

Illusory superiority

I foud those studies very helpful when hou have to assess your own competences. After reading Dunning-Kruger I guess I have much less illusions about my own results, and this is a huge jump in the perception of what I miss and what I do well.

Anyway, I found lots of good guys here, really aware of they trading skills and tolearnt to the beginners mistakes. That's great :clap: Nice to meet all of them!
I will come back in few months time and hope I will show some good scalping, meanwile, I don't want to flood the forum with just an empty chat. My life is away.

Hope I did not hurt anyone, if not, really sorry, guys.

Bets regards

Bal

Tenacity is also a prerogative of a great trader. Do not let trolls accomplish what they intend to do.

I also scalp and I tend to post not during sessions but mostly the weekends.

Mike

 

[rsh01]

Therein lies your problem.

What my problem is that I state, contrary to what some very blinkered newbies stated, that there are traders making money who do not use volume, and other good traders that do use volume.

Crikey what a big problem stating facts rather than lies.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Do you always behave this way toward people who openly give you thier time to assist you?

Yes I do. The only thing I respect from people are their trading statements, nothing else. Basically you have not yet passed the entrance exams to qualify giving me advise. I may change this view once you show me some statements.

The way I trade/gamble is done for my own reasons and for the particular path I chose for development. It is not intended to conform to cliches that people like to repeat as mantras. If following cliches will make money, everyone will be doing it already, especially all the beginners here with their ratios.

 

[Sidekicker]

PS Last thought about DOM: you never see any charts on the trader's monitors on news (or may be some basic ones, just to watch the price levels), on Bloombergs, CNBC, NASDAQ an so. For exepmle the Shneider trading, or they training for traders...You see DOMs, DOMs, DOMs...

That's not totally true and when it is there's a very good reason for that, because many traders at banks and other institutions are simply there to flip, they need to know who they can buy and sell to and at what spread. They need to know who's hitting the bid and ask - it's a very different job from what most think of trading. They are much more salespeople and need to know the order book, need to know if there are block orders in place, etc.
This is a good read for anyone interested in that type of trading: A Day in the Life of a FX Spot Desk Trader (Part 1)

You don't see many women on those pictures either, does that mean they don't like DOMS

 

[rsh01]

That's not totally true and when it is there's a very good reason for that, because many traders at banks and other institutions are simply there to flip, they need to know who they can buy and sell to and at what spread. They need to know who's hitting the bid and ask - it's a very different job from you and I think of trading. They are much more salespeople...
This is a good read for anyone interested in that type of trading: A Day in the Life of a FX Spot Desk Trader (Part 1)

You don;t see many women on those pictures either, does that mean they don't like DOMS

I couldn't reply to balthazars post cos the button doesn't show on the phone.
Re schneiders - the majority of the traders there (80% ish) trade the bund bobl shatz fly (and other stir combos), so its not a particular great example to use. I believe the ladders are so big because the trading platforms don't centre price automatically when it moves - and bunds can move 30ticks in seconds so its a hassle to move the ladders to get to the mkt quote.

Re that fx article - its a great read, shame he doesn't post on here anymore.

 

[Sidekicker]

By the way, DionysusToast, actually I'm doing the webinar with John Grady, absolutely super, opened my eyes on the DOM and presented Jigsaw plug inn, really good stuff, a must have in the ES. Will probably get it later.

I think the problem with John Grady's videos is that they don't really explain a whole lot in the time given. Perhaps I never took the time to learn as I went onto market profile for a while and found that easier.

I've been around the block more than a few times in my 3+ years trading. I took something in from every area on the net (free, paid for, call services, books, self research) and I've eventually settled on my own way of trading. I probably couldn't explain all the areas it incorporates from my learning time but it definitely has parts to everything I looked at.

One of the main reasons I don;t use MP or a DOM is that I trade as a side to my main job and it works just fine for me without all the Level 2 stuff.

 

[Dominator4fx]

That's not totally true and when it is there's a very good reason for that, because many traders at banks and other institutions are simply there to flip, they need to know who they can buy and sell to and at what spread. They need to know who's hitting the bid and ask - it's a very different job from you and I think of trading. They are much more salespeople...
This is a good read for anyone interested in that type of trading: A Day in the Life of a FX Spot Desk Trader (Part 1)

You don;t see many women on those pictures either, does that mean they don't like DOMS

Those who are big time traders are actually the ones who are able to Enter into the deals at the right times given the level of their knowledge and expertise.

But for the small time trader he is not able to get the data and the news which may also enable him to do so.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Those who are big time traders are actually the ones who are able to Enter into the deals at the right times given the level of their knowledge and expertise.

Then why did JP Morgan loose 2 billion ? They are pretty big time even amongst big timers.

 

[forker]

Then why did JP Morgan loose 2 billion ? They are pretty big time even amongst big timers.

JPMorgan lost money on hedge trades, these type of derivatives which are typically highly customised and unique in a way that you can't request the instrument off a bloomberg terminal. They also could be comprised of swaps.. in a nutshell its not a straight forward trade

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

 

[BeginnerJoe]

JPMorgan lost money on hedge trades, these type of derivatives which are typically highly customised and unique in a way that you can't request the instrument off a bloomberg terminal. They also could be comprised of swaps.. in a nutshell its not a straight forward trade

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

Not a single looser would admit to losing money on a simple deal. It'd be too embarrassing. For all we know, some JP Morgan big timer might have pressed the wrong button on the keyboard and lost the 2 billion. This happens to even the best of us. The rest of the story is just damage control.

 

[rsh01]

JPMorgan lost money on hedge trades, these type of derivatives which are typically highly customised and unique in a way that you can't request the instrument off a bloomberg terminal. They also could be comprised of swaps.. in a nutshell its not a straight forward trade

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

It wasnt a hedge, they had to say that.

 

[wekim]

Thanks mate for your comment ))))) Really appreciate that. :cheesy:

The biais is called Dunning-Kruger effect, a Nobel Price 2000 in the cognitive comportment research and the full name of the research is "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments".

A good compact version

And some more about illusory superiority effect:

Dunning-Kruger effect

Illusory superiority

I remember seeing the Dunning Kruger thing in robster's signature but never clicked through, thanks man

Yes I do. The only thing I respect from people are their trading statements, nothing else. Basically you have not yet passed the entrance exams to qualify giving me advise. I may change this view once you show me some statements.

lol.

 

[DionysusToast]

is that the No BS Trading guy?

Yes.

Personally, whoever said volume was the only way to trade on here is not correct.
Yes, it's a good way of trading and probably better suited to scalpers but it's not the only thing that matters. You can trade off market sentiment, support, res, patterns it just depends more on your temperament for trading and self control than anything else.

Agreed. The last trade I put on this board (VOCS buy @ 12.60, still holding) was the result of a conversation with a friend. Not a tip per se, nor insider information in the sense of the sort of stuff that should not be shared.

Decision to buy was made when we had the conversation. Decision to buy at that point was made after a quick look @ the chart.

Also no Volume, no DOM, no indicators etc. etc.

Might not work out in the end but the basis was sound in my opinion. I don't even check the price from day to day.

I actually had a look @ VSA - someone gave me some TradeGuider courses. It was interesting but like many things they pushed it past a few good concepts to work into a whole science with an almost infinite number of combinations and all the minutae that comes with it.

I think this is probably the issue with TA. For example, you get someone looking at candlesticks and they say "hey - that shows price rejection, how cool". It should end there but that wouldn't fill a book, so there's hundreds of candlestick formations and patterns in all sorts of books - taking a good concept an wringing the crap out of it so you can sell it...

 

[DionysusToast]

You sound like one of these rip off gurus. Since you are not overly profitable, if you say more it will make not much difference. My bets are for learning, for fun, for trading, and for gambling all mixed in. I think my results will improve once I cut down on the gambling. For now I have a reflex for gambling that isn't under control. It will once I am tired of the slow profit growth.

Are you gambling or chasing?

You would be amazed at how different the results would be if you got a few ticks of price improvement when you get in.

When you see a trade setting up, ask yourself if it's really a good price to be buying/selling. In a range, a crap price to buy would be the middle of it. If you get the urge to buy the middle of a range, wait for the place If you can do that and try to at least get a few ticks better entry by waiting a little when you feel like hitting the trigger.

The thinner the market, the more wiggle it has & the more chance you have for price improvement

 

[Joules MM1]

Are you gambling or chasing?
When you see a trade setting up, ask yourself if it's really a good price to be buying/selling. In a range, a crap price to buy would be the middle of it.

that sounds like part of the challenge........recognition, interpretation of the type of range, if there's actually a range, where has the rotation begun, where has it ended, who is likely to be involved, at what time of day......so how would he know what a "good price" is ? (a hint would be the word beginner .....perpetually by the current self debasement)

The thinner the market, the more wiggle it has & the more chance you have for price improvement

that's a rare comment, from you DT, that sounds like an absolute.....maybe you could give an example of that......how thick versus thin is a distinct trade set-up difference.....

 

[Dominator4fx]

Are you gambling or chasing?

You would be amazed at how different the results would be if you got a few ticks of price improvement when you get in.

When you see a trade setting up, ask yourself if it's really a good price to be buying/selling. In a range, a crap price to buy would be the middle of it. If you get the urge to buy the middle of a range, wait for the place If you can do that and try to at least get a few ticks better entry by waiting a little when you feel like hitting the trigger.

The thinner the market, the more wiggle it has & the more chance you have for price improvement

Gambling will not give any returns over a long period. The best system will be to aim for smaller profits based on the knowledge.

This would be much more sustainable

 

[DionysusToast]

Joules - I think my statement probably sounded smarter than what I was trying to say...

If you look at ultra thick markets, such as the treasuries and ES too, when the market gives you the nod, you have a choice generally speaking of either joining the bid/offer or using a market order.

Your expectation generally isn't that "now is the time but I'm going to put in a bid 4 ticks lower". I lost count of how many times on the ES, I've hit the offer with a limit order (to buy) and the fking thing ticks up before i get filled. It happened at least 2 times on Friday. When this happens, it just doesn't give you a second chance at that price. It's simply down to how much buyer liquidity is behind you on a long trade.

On the CL, it's the opposite. You might only have 10 orders ahead of you on the bid and so you have more chance of a fill if you join it. If you are trading short term reversals then you have more chance of the market slipping past the point you think that reversal will occur even if you are right - just because it's thinner. Of course, if you are trading momentum on a thin market, you don't have that opportunity.

Make sense?