short term ftse

[StephenMcCreedy]

hi all

posted here once or twice. i bet on the direction of the ftse through igindex. aiming for short term in and outs. happy with 10 points a day.

anyone interested in trading the ftse or already does get in touch.

just started a (not for profit) blog at http://tradingtheftse.blogspot.com/ that shows some of my thoughts and ideas and how i select trades.

am intended to keep this a ftse only thread so please respect that.

any questions welcome. i've been around the block a few times and kept solvent.

stephen

 

[pb8856]

Hi Stephen, sounds interesting, I enjoyed your first blog posts and will certainly follow and add my 2 cents worth where appropriate.

I trade the FTSE part time at the moment with view to trying to go full time for a year (or more) once I have enough $ saved up.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

thanks for getting in touch. my principle method of entry is using the 37/50 ema bands on the 5 min chart.

my favourite entry is the 'cross and test'. this is when the market strongly crosses my bands and then pulls back to 'test' them.

this trade is from this morning. i didn't take it but it illustrates what i use quite well.

also reference the blog post. since 57 was surpassed we've moved up quite nicely.

like i said. i only try to nick a few points here and there and these sorts of ideas work well for that.

 

[pb8856]

Good call on the 57 level, looks like the news from the IMF has pushed things up

"IMF says UK GDP growth around 1.5% in 2011, rising to 2.5% in medium term; CPI above 4% for most of 2011, near target by end-2012"

2pm, back to the day job

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

i think having another job or distraction to go to can help your trading. speaking personally i find with trading that less is more. there are several factors that are making me think about shorting the low 80s area for a few points. i actually have a sell limit in at 84 so interesting to see if it gets hit. am happy to take 5 odd points off that but if we do start to fall nicely i'll exit some and leave a little left to run. i'd want it to drop quite quickly from there. if it doesn't it would be a good idea to cover asap and keep the loss small.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

amended sell to 87 area. think it might overshoot.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

should have stuck to the low 80s. the best sell at ig was 82.30 before a nice 15 point straight drop. oh well. maybe next time. have pulled my sell limits now.

 

[pb8856]

Yeah, kept an eye on the market this afternoon and thought you might have caught that move down from the 80's, always another chance though.

How do you manage your stops when your just trying to grab a few pips here and there ? Do you look for a decent W/L rate or leave some money in the trade after taking a quick profit ?

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

i got a few from the drop but not as many as i would have liked. for me it's a trade off between coming in and seeing the points i missed out on. and knowing the more i trade the worse i get. as i've said controlled small wins add up quickly and that's the way i keep on track.

i tend to scale out of positions when they are going well and when they're going badly. last time i went through my stats my average win was slightly larger than my average loss but my win rate was high enough to support that. getting out of the bad ones more quickly is something i'm always working on.

yesterday was quite a nice day really to get in and out. interesting to see how today shapes up. will just be using my 37/50 bands on the 5 min ftse and seeing what we get.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

this morning the ftse was above my bands on the 5 min and 15 min and even about the hourly for the first time in a few sessions. this made me want to buy the market. the question was weather to buy a dip to the bands or buy a new high. i chose to buy a new high. in at 67 and out on average 13 points higher. pretty pleasing. the key now is walking away. if the market consolidates and looks to move higher this afternoon i might have another go but for now i'm happy to have made some money and be flat.

 

[Dinos]

I trade FTSE and have done on and off for years. However I dont use MA etc, and use Tick Charts of my own setting, which clearly shows the ebbs and flows of the price and using HA candles I get a high probability, low risk entry.

I use this set up to trade the 3 products I trade eur/usd, ftse and us light crude

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

do you mean using say 100 ticks or 200 ticks etc? i tried that for a while and used dma and it worked well. now i only trade the busy times i've found the 5 min is fine.

the HA idea is interesting. if you get a good ftse example it would be great if you could post the HA set up on here.

i have stopped trading euro as i've got this (bogus) link between ftse and euro in my head and when i was in both at the same time i didn't like it.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

we're back below my bands on the hourly chart and they are pointing down.

that gives me a bias to short if the 5 min set up turns negative. ie if i see a strong selling bar crossing over the bands i'll enter there or if i miss it wait for the first bounce back up to them.

it's wednesday which tends to be (by observation) a see-saw day anyhow. on wednesdays i've noticed i do best by not getting carried away following the trend, just grabbing anything that comes my why. not a hard and fast rule, just an observation.

we've retraced 50% of the march to may rally and held that level 5818 a few times.

the dow has completed a 61.8% re trace of the same move and stayed above it now too.

even if we are to go lower i wouldn't be surprised to see a few days hanging around here.

my strategy is going to be enter on sell stop at 5840 and perhaps job in and out a few times if the trades show themselves.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

stop hit at 40 and out on average for +10. done and dusted for the day.

 

[pb8856]

Managed to snatch a few point this morning when it bounced off 820. What are every ones thoughts this afternoon, more losses when the US opens ? 800 is holding up well so far but I cant see any reason for the market to head higher at the moment.

 

[pb8856]

stop hit at 40 and out on average for +10. done and dusted for the day.

Work finished before 9am ?

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

well i went to the driving range. came back with a sell stop at 5800 and got 5 more points.

will take a look this afternoon but what i tend to do is cut my size once i have my points in the bag. nothing is more likely to derail my calm than taking easy money in the morning only to give it back later in the day.

i might trade this afternoon if this thing really starts to fall but we'll see.

my belief, after over ten years of trading, is that being able to walk away is what seperates the winners from the losers. the market isn't ripe for picking all the time. i think it's a case of picking your moments.

in essence there is nothing wrong with quiting at 8.15am if you're done. it certainly beats sitting there till 9pm and giving it all back!

as an aside i'm watching 12050 on the dow, if that can't be regained i reckon we're back to march lows in short order. 5740 is a 61.8% retrace of the same move on ftse so my thinking is that that's where we heading if it breaks. that said i'll be keeping an open mind for a rally or simply sideways.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

the trend must be our friend and that trend is firmly down in the short term. i can't help but have the feeling these falls are going to snap back on some rumour or other sooner or later and climb very quickly catching lazy bears out.

on the chart we're below my medium term bands (i've added 444 and 600 ema to the 5 min to give me an idea of where my 37 and 50 ema are on the hourly)

entering on a sell stop in the high 90s or if i really want to be sure mid 70s is my plan for today. i might wait to see if we test and fail at the longer term bands. if we do i'd expect us to go much lower. if we go straight down from here i'd start to wonder if we're getting close to some consolidation.

still looking for 5740 to get hit (61.8% retrace of march to may rally). maybe that will be today.

let's see what we get today. keeping an eye on the dow and s&p futures is going to be an idea. if they start moving quickly it could signal another leg down.

still the key is to trade what's happening, not what i think should happen!

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

looks like this downward trend line is doing it's job this morning. for now at least it's capping the upside but there seems little appetite right now for selling it below 5800.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

today shows how important an open mind is when trading short time scales. the market climbed above my medium term bands (444/600 on the 5 min) and there was a good 30 points to be had following the market higher. when it was above all the bands and making new highs for the day.

i missed this chance as i was out but wonder how many lazy bears are now stuck short after deciding the small loss would get better only to watch it get worse.

today has been a good example how an open mind offers many more trading opportunities.

it's also an example how if you become complacent and don't take losses as you feel you're on the 'right' side of the market, very quickly those small annoying losses can become large worrying losses.