Secondary Indicators

[ajaskey]

Discuss the indicators outside of the base C-A-N-S-L-I-M criteria that are included in HTMMIS.

 

[cirus]

Discuss the indicators outside of the base C-A-N-S-L-I-M criteria that are included in HTMMIS.

What is HTMMIS ?

 

[sulong]

(H)ow (T)o (M)ake (M)oney (I)n (S)tocks = HTMMIS

 

[ajaskey]

From erierambler

Possible interest rate hike today, presuming a quarter of a percent . How many hikes is that now? Anyone keeping track?

erie

 

[ajaskey]

From DbPhoenix

It'll be the fifth, from 1.00 to 2.25.

Edit: Sorry, the sixth, from 1.00 presumably to 2.50. The above was as of December.

 

[ajaskey]

From SOCRATES

db, can you explain to me why it is that in the US when there is a hike in interest rates, the property prices go UP instead of down, like everywhere else, as the effect of a restriction of credit is felt ? I am puzzled.
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SOCRATES

 

[ajaskey]

From erierambler

Thanks db, O'Neil writes of keeping one's eye on this rate. Is there a benchmark one would regard as becoming detrimental to a bull market?

erie

 

[ajaskey]

From DbPhoenix

Whichever one causes the reversal, as in the one previous to the lower high in '00.

I'm hoping this thread doesn't turn into market calls. There are plenty of threads that address that. As O'N said long ago (and Wyckoff said long before that), you don't need to know what's going to happen. All you need to know is what has happened and what is happening. So I'm staying focused on what is (the point of my index thread in the PV Forum).
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Db

 

[ajaskey]

From erierambler

This is about market direction here and I thought the fed rate was part of that discussion topic. I could have brought it up in your forum as well,( it never occurred to me) but since Andy started this here it prompted me to start reading HTTMIS again and ran across the Fed rate and it also coincided with a release today. Another thing to note in my trading plan.


erie

 

[ajaskey]

erie,

Fair enough. I will start a thread called Secondary Indicators which will cover those things in HTMMIS not directly part of C-A-N-S-L-I-M. I will also post a list of topics that should be discussed in each thread (hopefully I will have all the placeholders filled in by next Monday).

My thoughts are that posters should attempt to post to the correct thread, BUT please don't avoid posting if you are not sure which thread something goes in. I will move posts from thread to thread (and replies made before I move the post). I think it is more important to post than to worry about the thread. The benefit of being here at T2W is that the moderator (me) can move posts around to keep the threads clean.

Post first and worry about aiming later... :cheesy:

Andy

 

[ajaskey]

From DbPhoenix

[Erie, market calls aren't part of my thread, either, which is why I said it's focused on what is, not what will be.

However, the content of this particular thread is entirely up to Andy, which is as it should be. But I'd caution participants to take O'N's/Wyckoff's sentiments to heart.

Incidentally, Andy, feel free to delete this and my previous post, if you like.
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Db

 

[ajaskey]

From SOCRATES

My question is, and remains, if the Fed tightens (raises interest rates) which means there is a restriction of credit, surely to curb money supply (the availability of purchasing power) why is is that property prices go up instead of down, as I am assured by realtors (estate agents) in the United States this is the case?

If db is either unwilling or unable to answer this question as a result of the above posts, is there anybody willing to offer an explanation of this apparent mystery? Any sensible offers welcome.
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SOCRATES

 

[ajaskey]

From Sulong

It's got to do with demand and supply. Cut the supply and demand rises ( fear of missing out).
__________________
Squalls, doldrums, heavy seas, gear failures, being tired, being cold are the condition for sailing, part and parcel of the commitment to get from here to there -- not enemies to be eliminated, but companions to be danced with.

- Unknown

 

[ajaskey]

From SOCRATES

Yes, this is exactly what a realtor said to me, face to face in conversation. Therefore it seems that the cost of money (the borrowing rate) does not enter the equation. Is this correct ?
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SOCRATES

 

[ajaskey]

From Sulong

No not really.
These small rate hikes have the effect of poking the consumer in the butt to encourage them to spend before it's too late.
At some point, these pokes will not work any longer, at that time all that wanted to spend, has already spent.
Then a different type of encouragement will need to be offered to create a demand.
__________________
Squalls, doldrums, heavy seas, gear failures, being tired, being cold are the condition for sailing, part and parcel of the commitment to get from here to there -- not enemies to be eliminated, but companions to be danced with.

- Unknown

 

[erierambler]

Fed Sees Inflation
As Bigger Threat
Than a Slowdown

More Boosts in Rates Likely
Despite Signs of Cooling;
By GREG IP
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
April 29, 2005; Page A1

Despite signs that economic growth is slowing, the Federal Reserve sees signs of an upward creep in inflation as a bigger threat -- and is likely to keep raising interest rates in the months ahead to curb it.

On Tuesday, the Fed likely will raise the target for its key short-term interest rate to 3% from 2.75%. That would be the eighth quarter-point rate increase in as many meetings. Changes in the federal-funds rate, which is charged on overnight loans between banks, normally ripple out to consumer and business loan and savings rates, affecting the demand for credit.

Next week should be interesting as well.............

erie