robster970
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I'll do the sheet later today hw. Thanks for covering - appreciate it.
robster970
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Well boys what a shocker eh! A massive slam dunk down yesterday as lots of profit taking was had and it still closed Up on the week at 1433.19
So this week's winners are:
1) Wt Average
2) Average
3) Pat494
So group-think does it for this week.
Overall, the Wt Average is beating the pants off the humans and Sam is still in 2nd place even though he couldn't be bothered to post up a forecast this week!
Thanks to hw for holding the fort whilst I've been away. I can confirm all his calculations were correct and that clearly, no 'paypal' went on. The googledoc which has now achieved sentience and is laughing at our puny attempts at forecasting has confirmed in a very clinical, hal9000, kind of way.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE#gid=0
So this week's winners are:
1) Wt Average
2) Average
3) Pat494
So group-think does it for this week.
Overall, the Wt Average is beating the pants off the humans and Sam is still in 2nd place even though he couldn't be bothered to post up a forecast this week!
Thanks to hw for holding the fort whilst I've been away. I can confirm all his calculations were correct and that clearly, no 'paypal' went on. The googledoc which has now achieved sentience and is laughing at our puny attempts at forecasting has confirmed in a very clinical, hal9000, kind of way.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE#gid=0
Pat494
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Overall, the Wt Average is beating the pants off the humans and Sam is still in 2nd place even though he couldn't be bothered to post up a forecast this week!
Prolly taking a week for Sam to get over the shock !
Strange though how the usual order was reversed for 2 weeks !
robster970
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What was most interesting for me this week (apart from easing myself into it) was just how good the downs were in getting that short term trading dominated price movements and it would be short lived. What they didn't account for was the profit motivation of longer term participants to keep prices higher than the previous week low. If long term traders had disappeared too yesterday we could well have seen a 3-4% day rather than a 2% day. My assessment is that long term is still holding up the market around these lows.
Nobody wanted to buy above 53 on ES, it wasn't that sellers had come in. Long terms traders have seen no change in value to the upside.
hwsteele
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Good to have you back rob!
I am going to go out on a limb here and say 1475 for this coming Friday.
I'm normally the bear king around here but I think that the market will be heading to a top on Thursday or Friday before a larger move down starting Friday or next Monday.
So I am still bearish just not for the week.
I hope it starts down next Monday and not Friday, that way my high number will still be good(ish). Too many times in the last three months Fridays have been ugly, soooooo, not too sure.
But the week of the 29th I'm guessing that we will see a high volume fast (crashish) move to the down side that will end around election time. November 6th.
The other thing is the market could just do that sideways thing 'til election, but in the end who knows.
So to sum things up Nice to have you back Mr. Robster!
I am going to go out on a limb here and say 1475 for this coming Friday.
I'm normally the bear king around here but I think that the market will be heading to a top on Thursday or Friday before a larger move down starting Friday or next Monday.
So I am still bearish just not for the week.
I hope it starts down next Monday and not Friday, that way my high number will still be good(ish). Too many times in the last three months Fridays have been ugly, soooooo, not too sure.
But the week of the 29th I'm guessing that we will see a high volume fast (crashish) move to the down side that will end around election time. November 6th.
The other thing is the market could just do that sideways thing 'til election, but in the end who knows.
So to sum things up Nice to have you back Mr. Robster!
Pat494
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I always thought the weighted average had possibilities. Just needed some of you guys to show your abilities and turn the scatter gun approach into one figure !
samspade79
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I thought rules dictated I was not allowed another prediction until I was bottom again ?
1450 this week after apple leads tech's higher later in the week.
wackypete2
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1421
Peter
Peter
robster970
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1445
robster970
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Forecast for this week
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE#gid=0
Where is our dpinpon????
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE#gid=0
Where is our dpinpon????
Pat494
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Went AWOL in Florida somewhere.
Pat494
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The Delphi method ( /ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.[1]
In the standard version, the experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.[2]
Other versions, such as the Policy Delphi,[3] have been designed for normative and explorative use, particularly in the area of social policy and public health.[4] In Europe, more recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique for interactive decision-making and e-democracy.[5]
Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.[6] This has been indicated with the term "collective intelligence".[7] The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.[8]
I suppose this is more or less what we do ?
In the standard version, the experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.[2]
Other versions, such as the Policy Delphi,[3] have been designed for normative and explorative use, particularly in the area of social policy and public health.[4] In Europe, more recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique for interactive decision-making and e-democracy.[5]
Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.[6] This has been indicated with the term "collective intelligence".[7] The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.[8]
I suppose this is more or less what we do ?
For me it's just a game. Specific number at specific point of time... You may guess a direction and the day before appointed time something new may come around and the index ma strongly reverse... Other scenarios are possible. Still, I like playing games...
