S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

re: Intra day S&P 500

I think it is just down to personal preference.

I also think the reason you get out at 2 points is probably not much to do with you getting excited. I think it's your 'gut' having seen so many move die at this point over the past few months.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

DionysusToast said:
I think it is just down to personal preference.

I also think the reason you get out at 2 points is probably not much to do with you getting excited. I think it's your 'gut' having seen so many move die at this point over the past few months.
Click to expand...

The average Maximum Favourable Excursion on my last 52 trades taken between Jan 11th and yesterday is 2.63pts.

:)
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Today's trade - functional and effective


a. ONH 1374.75, ONL 1359.50
b. Note that 1359.00 area is a low from the strong trend day last week
c. Note - NVPOC's at 1355.00 and 1363.75
d. OAOR, 297k CBAVOL, pretty low, no news today either
e. This is well out of balance so watch this in case it tries to drive further away
f. Selling off but seems to lack any conviction even though it has taken out ONL
g. Loitering around 1358.00 looks like it is stalling
h. Long, market order, 1358.75 @ 14:34 GMT (1) - not the best entry - seemed to take longer to execute today
i. OK, would expect to to climb through to the NVPOC at 1363.75
j. This seems to be stalling around 60.50 area, this doesn't look good
k. OK, take what's on offer, out at 1360.25 with a market order at 14:39 GMT (2)
l. 6 ticks profit before commissions
m. MAE 2 ticks, MFE 10 ticks, exit efficiency 60%
n.Good start to the week.
o. Best trade - probably this one.
p. Today's opera - L'Orfeo by Monteverdi
q. Going to make myself a latte now.
 

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re: Intra day S&P 500

Two scratch trades for me today, both on YM.

1st short, 2nd long. Possibly the big gap down from Friday is affecting me - I'm scared to short because I might have missed the train, I'm scared to go long in case I'm stepping in front of the train.

Neither of them great trades really.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

The Leopard said:
Two scratch trades for me today, both on YM.

1st short, 2nd long. Possibly the big gap down from Friday is affecting me - I'm scared to short because I might have missed the train, I'm scared to go long in case I'm stepping in front of the train.

Neither of them great trades really.
Click to expand...

ES has built a base around 1356.00 area. It took out an NVPOC at 1355.00. It's anybody's guess now which way it will go although delta is +ve at 11k and with it being this out of balance but not driving down, I'd probably be biased long with any movement below 1354 telling me to get out.......
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Sorry, now that the second trade is 20 ticks or so above my entry I realise that it was a superb trade, one which I should still be in with a break even stop in place. :)
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

So folks, here are 4 of the trades embedded in this thread. Do you notice anything similar about them in terms of conditions that have prevailed before the RTH open?

This is a rhetorical question btw.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tra...rs-es-intraday-hotch-potch-7.html#post1823096

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tra...rs-es-intraday-hotch-potch-7.html#post1824186

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tra...s-es-intraday-hotch-potch-10.html#post1831430

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tra...s-es-intraday-hotch-potch-13.html#post1835970
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

On a train into London yesterday, I was continuing to read "Zen and the art of motorcycle maintenance". This particular paragraph reminds me of the moment I decided to let go of retail trading rhetoric.

I keep wanting to go back to that analogy of fishing for facts. I can just see somebody asking with great frustration, "Yes, but which facts do you fish for? There’s got to be more to it than that." But the answer is that if you know which facts you’re fishing for you’re no longer fishing. You’ve caught them. I’m trying to think of a specific example.

All kinds of examples from cycle maintenance could be given, but the most striking example of value rigidity I can think of is the old South Indian Monkey Trap, which depends on value rigidity for its effectiveness. The trap consists of a hollowed-out coconut chained to a stake. The coconut has some rice inside which can be grabbed through a small hole. The hole is big enough so that the monkey’s hand can go in, but too small for his fist with rice in it to come out. The monkey reaches in and is suddenly trapped...by nothing more than his own value rigidity. He can’t revalue the rice. He cannot see that freedom without rice is more valuable than capture with it. The villagers are coming to get him and take him away. They’re coming closer—closer! -- now! What general advice...not specific advice...but what general advice would you give the poor monkey in circumstances like this? Well, I think you might say exactly what I’ve been saying about value rigidity, with perhaps a little extra urgency. There is a fact this monkey should know: if he opens his hand he’s free. But how is he going to discover this fact? By removing the value rigidity that rates rice above freedom. How is he going to do that? Well, he should somehow try to slow down deliberately and go over ground that he has been over before and see if things he thought were important really were important and, well, stop yanking and just stare at the coconut for a while. Before long he should get a nibble from a little fact wondering if he is interested in it. He should try to understand this fact not so much in terms of his big problem as for its own sake. That problem may not be as big as he thinks it is. That fact may not be as small as he thinks it is either. That’s about all the general information you can give him.

Retail trading rhetoric = value rigidity
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Jesus, that took a combination of nerve/stupidity/clarity


a. ONH 1382.00, ONL 1369.50
b. OAOR, 370k CBAVOL
c. NVPOC a 1381.50 tagged - this is driving away hard now. Be careful if considering shorting.
d. This is grinding up, it's consistently above the ONH, even more reason to go long
e. OK, I'm looking for a pull-back to get long now if this is going to go for a trend day.
f. Maybe around 84.25, seems like a good area, bugger it's off again for the NVPOC at 1386.75, missed that entry.
g. I don't want to short that NVPOC, feel suspicious of shorting an NVPOC when it's driving up like this....
h. ok looking for it to rotate down, VPOC around 82.75 seems a bit far, looking for a rotation to around 84.75
i. Long, market order at 1385.25 @ 14:58GMT (1) - looking for at least a re-test of the high, not a great entry
j. This is selling off again, looking at the VPOC at 82.75 here to determine what to do next
k. ok this seems to be holding around the VPOC, seems it was pulling back to here
l. Long, market order at 1383.00 @ 15:12GMT (2), average price now around 1384.25
m. ok climbing again now.
n. Is this stalling, doesn't seem to be climbing much higher that 84.75
o. Going sideways around 83 and 84, VPOC at 82.75 seems to be holding things up
p. Hmmm, this has opened up well out of balance and it does seem to be holding
q. Even though sellers seem to have the upper hand right now, this has opened 10pts up and whoever is buying seems to be holding it up here
r. ok, watch if it tests ONL. If it breaches this, just get out with a big loss, otherwise hold and just be cool.
s. Jesus, a ledge for sellers has formed at 83.25 but it is rotating up on each period. It won't seem to break the IB
t. This might just be a 'Normal' day in MP terms so I would expect rotations up towards the high again eventually
u. Fed interest rate is coming up, I'm not comfortable about this as I quite heavily loaded in the run up to a news item that generally causes some movement.
v. DOM is really thinning out as we get closer to the news, considering bailing with a loss now, losing reasons to be in this trade
w. OK into the statement, it's all getting choppy now, deciding to bail if low is breached
x. Keeps testing this low but it is holding
y. Jeez, how long will this go on for
z. OK, it's getting some momentum now
1. This is grinding again, there is more blue coming through on T&S and the DOM is thickening/thinning which is making life interesting
2. I'm looking to get out just above the 1384.75 to cover costs and a little bit
3. OK, it's got a head of steam
4. Loitering around 1385.50, losing momentum
5. Out, market order, 1385.25 @ 18:07GMT (3)
6. 4.5 ticks profit before commissions at 2 x normal risk
7. MAE, 16 ticks from average, MFE 15 ticks from average, exit efficiency 31%.
8. That took some nerve/stupidity.
9. There was no opera or coffee involved today, maybe that was the problem
10. Best trade, long from the RTH-Low on the second test from 80.25 to 85.25 for 20 ticks
 

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re: Intra day S&P 500

Decided not to trade today. Have hit weekly soft target and don't feel 'hot'. Back next week.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

yeah - I've been off most of the week - throat infection - something going around...
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

lol!

I wish...

I took my 2 year old girl to the park on Friday, she immediately came down with a fever, probably got something off one of the other kids. I got it a couple of days later.

One of the delights of parenthood - they bring disease to your doorstep.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

DionysusToast said:
One of the delights of parenthood - they bring disease to your doorstep.
Click to expand...

They are miracles of nature aren't they, that they can attract and pass on so many ailments, so quickly, to those with developed immune systems.

Why don't you post up the odd trade DT?
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

I will - starting next week - I'm not going to trade tonight either.

My list of reasons might be a bit short though...
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Felt a bit tricky today, especially when it broke through the ONL....

a. ONH 1402.50, ONL 1393.75
b. OAIR, 210k CBAVOL - this is pretty low
c. Gap close at 1398.50
d. Little lift up but selling off now.
e. Seems to be holding around 95.25 but it's giving it a good pasting. I can't see this holding.
f. There she blows - oh sh1t, that spread betting thing is still open, this is not the time to get distracted by that
g. It's pushed through the ONL but it's finding buyers coming in
h. Long, market order 1393.75 @ 14:43 GMT (1)
i. Jesus this is pushing lower again now
j. Seems to have found buyers at 92.50 area, delta is getting very negative
k. VPOC has now moved down to 93.25, this isn't great
l. It's pushing down through 92, start to consider winding up here, I might be in front of a steamroller
m. ok, it's struggling to get any further and delta is -30k, think this might turn
n. On it's way up, watch what it is doing at the VPOC
o. Little sell off again - that was met with some ferocious buying, feeling more confident
p. Looking for an exit at the previous resistance at 95.25
q. Out market order at 1395.00 @ 15:16 GMT (2)
r. This might have a bit more in it, no it hasn't that was a good call.
s. 5 ticks profit before commissions
t. MAE 10 ticks, MFE 7 ticks, exit efficiency 71%
u. Best trade, short with a fade of the opening swing high (about 96.75 to 93.25 or so) for 14 ticks
v. B0ll0cks - seems I have paid the price on my slapbooby trade with stupid betting and not paying attention to it. Never mind.
w. Nice wrap to April. Moderate month on the whole.
 

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