S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[DionysusToast]

re: Intra day S&P 500

I see we both did well on ES today but certainly missed a lot! Still tanking.

Peter

You are not alone there...

I shorted 1373.75, then exited at 1372.75, then 1371.50, then 1368.25...

Then no more bullets in the gun...

Still - if you held out for 10 point moves on the ES nowadays, you'd give a lot back...

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

You are not alone there...

I shorted 1373.74, then exited at 1372.75, then 1371.50, then 1368.25...

Then no more bullets in the gun...

Still - if you held out for 10 point moves on the ES nowadays, you'd give a lot back...

You can tell where the momentum came from - we all saw the same thing roughly at the same time, the only difference is that I tend to get in early on weakness (but then pay when I am wrong), DT requires a bit more confirmation and scales out and Pete waits for a bit more confirmation. Likelihood is that when I was getting out and DT was unloading his first contracts, Pete was the counter-party on those trades.

You get a real sense of how the momentum continues.

 

[wackypete2]

re: Intra day S&P 500

lol, yeah, each of us were just unloading on the next guy down the line!

Peter

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

re: Intra day S&P 500

nice trading chaps.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

No trading today - had problems with computer. Everything seems to be working again now after uninstall/install shennanigans. Happens sometimes I suppose. Looks like I've missed a trend day today.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Today's trade. Not pretty, quite functional and a good demonstration of what I'm like when a) not prepped, b) not tuned in and c) distracted

a. ONH 1386.50, ONL 1377.75
b. Note that sellers are blocking off buyers for the last few days around 1386 to 1389 area
c. OAIR, 324k CBAVOL, nothing special.
d. Not expecting any big moves today after a big day like yesterday
e. Moving lower, is this stalling?
d. Sh1t, missed the entry long there for a swing low as it was 4 ticks above the ONL
e. Seems to be stalling around the RTH-H
f. Short, market order, 1382.50 @ 14:54 GMT (1)
g. Oh jesus it's gone offside already. 4pts away from ONH. Hmmm, that's quite far.
h. Seems to be stalling again.
i. VPOC now moved to 1382.50 - I hate it when that happens (i.e. I have traded at the mean price)
j. It does seem weak. Delta is not really moving up. Seems to lack any conviction.
k. Sh1t, it's getting to 1385.00, what does a guy do?
l. ok, I don't think this is going anywhere far today, no news, so I think I will wait for ONH to get hit and then decide to either bail with a biggish loss or add in if it looks weak. As there is persistent selling at 86 area I feel confident this will revert back down again.
m. Struggling to get past 85.00. I'm in no-mans land here.
n. There she blows, nice big sell-off and delta dropped like a stone.
o. Jesus, it's holding around 81.75 but is this transient.
p. I don't like the look of this really.
q. Out, market order at 1382.25 @ 16:22 GMT (2)
r. 1 tick profit before commissions, at least costs were covered. Not great trading.
s. MAE 12 ticks, MFE 13 ticks, exit efficiency 8%
t. Best trade - hard this really, probably long fading the OS but nothing has happened around any important levels.
u. Today's coffee - Normal Latte

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Today's trade was mainly about getting in on the opening swing low, going long at the market at 1378.50.

The when it got to 1379.50 instead of getting out, I clicked on the buy side of the DOM instead of the sell side, doubled my position size and brought my average up to 1379.00.

Obviously as soon as it did this, it sold off putting me off-side. I eventually got out of the aggregate position at 1379.25 and as I was focussed on recovering rather than profiting, I missed the fact it was accumulating for a run up to 1384 area.

Another shoddy day. Up but shoddy.

Ironically weekly target hit today even with 2 days of really cr@p trading with machine problems as well.

Not my most glorious week. Finishing today. Back next week.

 

[DionysusToast]

re: Intra day S&P 500

For me today.....

9:33 - long 1378.75 - stopped out @ 1377.75
9:46 - long 1381.25 - scaled @ 1382.25, 1382.50, 1383.25
10:29 - long 1378.50 - scaled @ 1379.50, 1379.50 (chickened out), 1384.50

Lately, I keep pu$$ying out on the 2nd scale out. Mostly because I start out with 4 tick stop, 4,8,12 tick targets.

It's not until the 2nd scale out that I am in the clear from a risk perspective and I keep closing it early.

What I should do is scale out 50%, 25%, 25% - that way, I am de-risked on the first scale out.

Or I should stop being a pu$$y.

We should team up - pu$$y & $hoddy.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

You are a pu$$y - why did you leave a 4 tick stop if the ONL was around 77.00 today with buying tail up to 78.00??????

BTW, if you want to post trades up here my friend, feel free to do so. I just want to keep it to ES on here simply because we're a rare breed on T2Lulz.

 

[The Leopard]

re: Intra day S&P 500

For me today.....

9:33 - long 1378.75 - stopped out @ 1377.75
9:46 - long 1381.25 - scaled @ 1382.25, 1382.50, 1383.25
10:29 - long 1378.50 - scaled @ 1379.50, 1379.50 (chickened out), 1384.50

Lately, I keep pu$$ying out on the 2nd scale out. Mostly because I start out with 4 tick stop, 4,8,12 tick targets.

It's not until the 2nd scale out that I am in the clear from a risk perspective and I keep closing it early.

What I should do is scale out 50%, 25%, 25% - that way, I am de-risked on the first scale out.

Or I should stop being a pu$$y.

We should team up - pu$$y & $hoddy.

This is a tough one to crack.

3 trades in the last couple of weeks I have done the same kind of thing, costing me about 4 risk altogether in lost profit. Instead either getting scratch or a reduced profit.

On another 2 trades I avoided a couple of small losses by doing it - maybe 0.75 Risk saved.

So it's cost me net over 3 risk in a couple of weeks - bearing in mind 2 risk is enough to make it a good month.

It's very annoying, because I've thought countless times that I've got over this problem.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

This is a tough one to crack.

3 trades in the last couple of weeks I have done the same kind of thing, costing me about 4 risk altogether in lost profit. Instead either getting scratch or a reduced profit.

On another 2 trades I avoided a couple of small losses by doing it - maybe 0.75 Risk saved.

So it's cost me net over 3 risk in a couple of weeks - bearing in mind 2 risk is enough to make it a good month.

It's very annoying, because I've thought countless times that I've got over this problem.

Why are you boys scaling out on such short moves? Surely this is just bringing down your average exit price rather than doing any real risk mitigation from your opening position?

 

[The Leopard]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Why are you boys scaling out on such short moves? Surely this is just bringing down your average exit price rather than doing any real risk mitigation from your opening position?

Not scaling out - closing outright.

As to why? Honestly - fear, stupidity, short-sightedness etc etc etc.

Managing trades like an idiot basically.

Day before yesterday was one of them on YM. I closed out for 2R when I should have had over 3. I'm actually too embarrassed to give the reason I closed when I did.

EDIT:

Another one I closed for scratch to avoid taking a loss. At that point I'd already reduced my risk, so I think worst case loss would have been 0.3 / 0.4 risk or whatever. Price came back, just moved a couple of ticks beyond where I closed, then dropped back like a stone.

I wanted break even, I got break even. Like a numpty.

 

[wackypete2]

re: Intra day S&P 500

You guys know I don;t trade the same way as you do however I find myself similarly chickening out on some trades this year. I think it the current nature of the markets that's affecting our thinking. The volume and volatility lately are sh1t and it makes it easier for the bigger participants to play their games. For instance there's always a trade that is looking good but then gets taken out on a spike. That's been around for ages, but lately the frequency of that happening has been multiplied several times over, even for longer term trades. What happens now is I am in a trade showing a bit of profit and I catch myself just waiting for the inevitable (spike stop out) so I just exit early instead....lol...you know the rest of the story after that.

Any other opinions?

Peter

 

[The Leopard]

re: Intra day S&P 500

You guys know I don;t trade the same way as you do however I find myself similarly chickening out on some trades this year. I think it the current nature of the markets that's affecting our thinking. The volume and volatility lately are sh1t and it makes it easier for the bigger participants to play their games. For instance there's always a trade that is looking good but then gets taken out on a spike. That's been around for ages, but lately the frequency of that happening has been multiplied several times over, even for longer term trades. What happens now is I am in a trade showing a bit of profit and I catch myself just waiting for the inevitable (spike stop out) so I just exit early instead....lol...you know the rest of the story after that.

Any other opinions?

Peter

That might well be true for you, but I honestly can't say that in my case. Of the three trades I mentioned, maybe one I could make a weak case for closing early. And I do mean weak.

But in reality it was just fear of loss, or fear of giving up profit. Not enough in my trousers, basically.

Don't get me wrong, if I genuinely think things have changed and I have to alter my usual management rules, that's one thing and I'll happily live with the consequences. But that has not been my motivation recently.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Not scaling out - closing outright.

As to why? Honestly - fear, stupidity, short-sightedness etc etc etc.

Managing trades like an idiot basically.

Day before yesterday was one of them on YM. I closed out for 2R when I should have had over 3. I'm actually too embarrassed to give the reason I closed when I did.

EDIT:

Another one I closed for scratch to avoid taking a loss. At that point I'd already reduced my risk, so I think worst case loss would have been 0.3 / 0.4 risk or whatever. Price came back, just moved a couple of ticks beyond where I closed, then dropped back like a stone.

I wanted break even, I got break even. Like a numpty.

Come on, you know 8-10 ticks on side and I'm out because I can't handle it any longer. Take a look at the exit efficiency of each of my trades - my average is 50% of the move captured. That's not the behaviour of a man that is completely rationalising the trade is it?

We all trade within our own capabilities and if we're generally up, then we aren't doing too badly are we?

WRT to the question that Pete asked, in a funny way I am enjoying the increased gaming as it is making things more predictable. The gaming is the same old gaming that I've seen for the last 2-3 years. Lack of vol isn't really affecting me tbh.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

BTW Leopard - post YM and NQ trades up here if you want......

 

[VielGeld]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Any other opinions?

Peter

I've seen the same thing happen. Some trades I took which usually look like they're about to run in one direction or the other suddenly go the other way. Then it consolidates and eventually runs ahead to go into profit.

Thankfully, I can hold on for these things, but usually only if it's within an observed pattern. If it's the first time I'm seeing it or not used to it, then it's bail time.

 

[DionysusToast]

re: Intra day S&P 500

You are a pu$$y - why did you leave a 4 tick stop if the ONL was around 77.00 today with buying tail up to 78.00??????

BTW, if you want to post trades up here my friend, feel free to do so. I just want to keep it to ES on here simply because we're a rare breed on T2Lulz.

Just going with the flow, Rob.

I just got the impression at the time that a 'backstop' had come in, an area from which (order flow-wise), we'd carry on.

 

[DionysusToast]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Why are you boys scaling out on such short moves? Surely this is just bringing down your average exit price rather than doing any real risk mitigation from your opening position?

A few reasons.

1 - A typical rotation on the ES is 2 points, so on a good entry, I can expect to hit 2 points. Maybe after that, it'll run and I can manage that runner. If not, I can at least to get the 2 points. Whilst we've had a good few days, volatility-wise, the ES can be pretty narrow at times, especially of late.

2 - Taking some money off the table at 1 point de-risks the trade. You now have a little more leeway as your break-even point has moved in your favour.

3 - Taking some money off the table is effective in terms of feelgood factor.

4 - Once fully scaled up, the 1 & 2 point trades can make you a lot of money and the runners are just icing on the cake. My goal for the day is just 2 points anyway, which is 40 points a month if we get 20 trading days.

That's just me though.

DT

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

2 - Taking some money off the table at 1 point de-risks the trade. You now have a little more leeway as your break-even point has moved in your favour.

All your reasons make sense. I suppose it is a preference thing really.

Point 2 is interesting for me though as 1pt is generally the threshold I use for sitting in the trade for longer. IME if it's hit 1pt, then I am generally going with the rotation and like you said, it mostly gets to 2pts at which point I get wildly excited and then close out.....