Robert Peston thinks the recession will be over by the end of the year

[Black Swan]

early next year at the latest. Reckons we're in a recession, but no chance of a depression. Sounds like he's doing a little 'man wee' over the (apparent) increased export/manufacturing from China, better manufacturing figures from the UK and a tiny increase (month on month) on mortgage lending, (still 50% down year on year) - means banks are lending again apparently...

Question, how can any economist/conmantator worth a salt possibly predict 'green shoots' when; unemployment is not scheduled to peak until the last quarter of 2010, estimates put the figure at 3mil, an increase of 1.25mil YoY by December 2009, repossessions are still increasing at an alarming rate and insolvency figures (published today) are ballooning? If the UK GDP is down -6% then surely it'll take 3 years to recover to zero at best?

Peston is also making lots of noise re. the apparent stock market being in a "bullish mood of late", can anyone tell me when it moved from a bear market rally to being bullish? Does anyone (in his position) look at the fact that year on year the ftse 100 is down 30% and is 36% down versus this time ten years ago...?

Anyhow, best predictions for end of the recession; for me it's stagflation all the way, we'll have in effect a 'lost decade' up 'til 2020...Thoughts anyone on when the UK economy will turn and what metrics we'll be able to judge it's actually happened in the 'real world' as opposed to the media world?

 

[gooseman]

Robert Peston has gained infamy from one thing-getting the inside track on HBOS. Everything else he says is made for the general populaiton. 95% of his speel is regurgitated clap trap. No time for the bloke whatsoever.

 

[Rossini]

Robert Peston thinks the recession will be over by the end of the year.

I think he is wrong, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, I think inflation will be a problem in the near future, and when that kicks in any recovery that has taken place will be quashed.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I think Robert Preston is a brown envelope under the table tw@ who needs to go to a chin reforming specialist.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I think Robert Preston is a brown envelope under the table tw@ who needs to go to a chin reforming specialist.

don't beat about the bush, tell us what you really think

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Mate I hate him. He just pulls whatever obscure bast*rdised figures he can to back up his silly statements. i reckon he started all this so he could buy a massive house in London.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

i reckon he started all this

same with all "recessions" I reckon - all started and fueled by journos looking to hype a story.
same with the latest bullshyt over "swine flu".
(5 confirmed dead - please ! more people have probably died from panic)

[which btw has no proven links to pigs and should be called "North American Flu" - but that didn't stop the dubai mozzies banning the import of pork at the first opportunity....]


journos, talking heads, "experts" all have a hell of a lot to answer for. wouldn't trust a single fooking one of them. nor their headlines.

 

[N Rothschild]

media have alot to awnser for. total scum, cause more problems than anything else..because people are naive enough to believe it..sheep...

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Murdoch is long glaxosmithkline from his office PC

 

[Black Swan]

Robert Peston has gained infamy from one thing-getting the inside track on HBOS. Everything else he says is made for the general populaiton. 95% of his speel is regurgitated clap trap. No time for the bloke whatsoever.

I think you meant NR but there were that many failures perhaps you're right. Another 'ting that's irritating me atm is the notion that banks are making healthy profits and have been healed by the magic hand of Gordon...well without the intervention on both sides of the Atlantic woth trillions then I doubt their figures would be so healthy..
So many appear to point to the Lehman bros collapse as the 'epicentre', most banks were insolvent way before this, they were no worse than any others, they were sacrificed, presumably Dick Fuld had upset Paulson or Bush...

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Anyone have any idea how much the FTSE is weigted against pharma companies?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

from an accounting perspective I can tell you confidently that these losses are due to rollbacks of tax paid (i.e. income generated) and the losses before hand were due to write downs of assests through the profit and loss. No business could continute to trade with operating losses of billions of pounds unless they never gave out a dividend yield since incorporation lol.

All they've done is muddy the waters for people with more money than sense who use fundamentals to buy equities. Saying that looking at Barclays it seems to be working. I wanted to kill my gf because she wouldnt put her (not my) saving into bartclays at 58p. I cant see those levels coming again for any bank.