Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[missionary]

I really cant fathom how under NT rules you can read todays trade signal as inconclusive? That is nuts. With the MA figure rounded it rose +9 pips and exact it rose +8.5 pips.

By exact figures including the decimal every candle was higher that the last and even with rounding apart from two flat candles near the end all candles also rose.

This was a very very clear buy signal under NT rules!

You must have some funny charts.

M

Claviceps is right.

Under the rules it was a positive buy, but using intelligence and experience one could see that there would only be a small upwards margin to the current resistance and then it would fall. Therefore it was obviously only for those who were willing to sit and watch their screen and pull the trade when it got to resistance. But that is not the rule of NT. In no way was it a 'set at 50 pips limit' and go away till 8.30.

mish

 

[mark120169]

-20 pips for me following Systems For Traders rules.

W

-34 pips TNT60/60

-17 MNT

-17 NT

Not having a good run atm!

M

 

[mark120169]

Mini Net Trap MNT took a standard loss today. MNT is still into negative teritory for June.

Buy 15058 Limit 15068 stop 15028


June TD -47 (Wins x 12 +120 loss x 6 -167)



M

p.s For those that could have avoided Monday 7/6/10 and thursday 17/6/10 unfortunate losses due to tighter spreads than IG 3 pips or running a 33 stop limit (MNT33S) on a sell order MNT would be +30 for June to date.

 

[Claviceps]

I really cant fathom how under NT rules you can read todays trade signal as inconclusive? That is nuts. With the MA figure rounded it rose +9 pips and exact it rose +8.5 pips.

By exact figures including the decimal every candle was higher that the last and even with rounding apart from two flat candles near the end all candles also rose.

This was a very very clear buy signal under NT rules!

You must have some funny charts.

M

Hi Mark
your absolutely right the chart your looking at shows the figures you say ,
I have the habit of also checking the mid price chart ,( not in the book I know ) if
you quickly check that chart a different picture emerges ,as a rule I like the two
MA's to agree on the general direction.

 

[Bolivian Admiral]

What were the official figures for last week

 

[stevepatt]

What were the official figures for last week

You should get an email from RH later today, if you are a member, with the official results for last week.

 

[mark120169]

Hi Mark
your absolutely right the chart your looking at shows the figures you say ,
I have the habit of also checking the mid price chart ,( not in the book I know ) if
you quickly check that chart a different picture emerges ,as a rule I like the two
MA's to agree on the general direction.

Hmmm. I just repeated the exercise using the mid prices and unfortunately this would not have helped me. With rounding I would have got +1 (also a buy signal) and exact +0.9 (for me personally still a buy signal).

But it was pretty much flat all the way along, there certainly wasn't any "no trade" signals using the mid price MA's.

You just have experience to call it no trade, for me both ways seem a trade I i like everyone else really have no way of telling which way the market will go. I was convinced this would be a a day the trap did not trigger but it caught us with a spike very late. But the spike could have carried on up or reversed as it did. Again, I know no indicators plus i was driving so could not monitor them if they were able to be read. This is why I chose NT. These days happen.

M

 

[sarnia cherie]

Hi Mark
your absolutely right the chart your looking at shows the figures you say ,
I have the habit of also checking the mid price chart ,( not in the book I know ) if
you quickly check that chart a different picture emerges ,as a rule I like the two
MA's to agree on the general direction.

I initially looked at the mid price this am and couldnt understand how ppl were saying definite long...it was only when I got my brain into gear and realised that I was looking at the wrong chart that the penny dropped (not good on Monday mornings).

I do think that there must be an extra 'filter' that might keep us all out of dodgy trades. I only have a couple of weeks experience of this system but it seems to me the strength of the signal is no real indication of what is going to happen. I've had a +50 on the weakest of signals and -30 on the strongest.

Am sure that between us we can think of something. There will still be losing trades, but I seem to have bought in at a bit of a dodgy time for Net Trap. Still, its early days yet.

 

[Bolivian Admiral]

I just want to know how well the system is doing no big deal I'll get the info from the promotions/adverts

 

[sarnia cherie]

I also wonder how sensible it is to trade these signals on a monday morning as the weekend may have a temporary effect on any trend established at the end of the previous week. Anyone had a look to see how successful monday morning trades have been on an historical basis?

 

[me1234]

I initially looked at the mid price this am and couldnt understand how ppl were saying definite long...it was only when I got my brain into gear and realised that I was looking at the wrong chart that the penny dropped (not good on Monday mornings).

I do think that there must be an extra 'filter' that might keep us all out of dodgy trades. I only have a couple of weeks experience of this system but it seems to me the strength of the signal is no real indication of what is going to happen. I've had a +50 on the weakest of signals and -30 on the strongest.

Am sure that between us we can think of something. There will still be losing trades, but I seem to have bought in at a bit of a dodgy time for Net Trap. Still, its early days yet.

I was impressed by your prediction of the nose-dive on Friday- what is the other system you use?

 

[peterf1966]

....... but I seem to have bought in at a bit of a dodgy time for Net Trap. Still, its early days yet.

Two weeks back the official NT figs were +54, last week they will be well down and today was a bit poor too. Keeping to NT, and applying the +D(iscretion) seems to be the way to go. I did not have time this morning to sit and watch, so had to be a vanilla NT day. The CAM thing did suggest the resistance level showed no chance of a +50, and had I been watching, the sudden drop of about 25 pips at 7am, would have had me cancelling my order!

BTW the +D bit, meant the +54 two weeks ago was +146 for me. Swings/roundabouts!

 

[Tenapenny]

I also wonder how sensible it is to trade these signals on a monday morning as the weekend may have a temporary effect on any trend established at the end of the previous week. Anyone had a look to see how successful monday morning trades have been on an historical basis?

Volatility is always a problem at these times for short term traders using a system such as NT. The market is never wrong, it just is.

 

[mark120169]

I just want to know how well the system is doing no big deal I'll get the info from the promotions/adverts

Read back on this thread somewhere after the beginning if June I did a 1st year round up of the official NT results from RH from June 09 to May 10.

But June 09 was something like +400 pips. This June Vanilla NT is running @ something like -90 pips. Unless we have two +50 pips days this month will be the 2nd losing month for NT and the biggest drawdown month too.

M

 

[Tanguero]

Hi Tanguero,

In my limited experience with Camarilla I agree with your R3 level. I calculated 15118, so only 3 pips different from you. I did the calcs last night though, (based on Friday's data) so the difference is probably due to me not including any data from this morning. Not sure of the correct timespan to be using, should it be 06:15 - 06:15, or just the previous trading day from open to close?

Very interesting to see the various S&R levels plotted on my chart this morning. It was a clear 'BUY' by the rules, but seeing that Friday's up-channel was not continuing this morning, and that the 06:15 candle closed just below the Pivot, I decided to stay out. Glad I did as it looks like another -30 day for Vanilla NT, maybe slightly less if you closed at 08:30...

Matt.

I plotted the levels yesterday as well using Friday 8am to 10pm data (London open - NY close). For R3, do you use C + (H-L)*1.1/4?

I decided to take the trade despite a sharp drop to the level, but only after seeing bulls stepping in. Was not smart/awake enough to grab the profit when we hit the overnight congestion/distribution area, so it ended up in a b/even.

 

[sarnia cherie]

I was impressed by your prediction of the nose-dive on Friday- what is the other system you use?

London Forex Open. It actually made +60 on Friday. I have also only been trading that for a couple of weeks. If you go to the systemsfortraders website you can follow the trades. I gather from the others on the site that have been trading it for a while that June has been a bit of a disaster. Seems that June has not been very kind to a few of these more 'mechanical' systems.

 

[Wagtail]

Volatility is always a problem at these times for short term traders using a system such as NT. The market is never wrong, it just is.

..and the win rate is better than 50/50 but not massively so, so these runs of poor results will happen and will happen again. As long as the money management is tight and we keep that +50 limit in place, it will win through. Get the R:R wrong, and go for small targets, then statistically speaking, failure looms.

 

[pips ahoy!]

I plotted the levels yesterday as well using Friday 8am to 10pm data (London open - NY close). For R3, do you use C + (H-L)*1.1/4?

I decided to take the trade despite a sharp drop to the level, but only after seeing bulls stepping in. Was not smart/awake enough to grab the profit when we hit the overnight congestion/distribution area, so it ended up in a b/even.

Yes that is the formula I used for R3. Thanks for clarifying the timescale, I used a longer period than you, hence the difference of 3 pips.

Matt.

 

[gav2e]

I made a decision, not to enter today, based on what I could see happening in the market up to 6.15 which was very little movement at best I thought it might reach the early high at the 2.30 candle. People that entered today obviously saw it differently to me if the market had shot up, then good for them, I would have miss read it, but most inportantly I made the decision not to enter the trade and not the NT "rules".

Firstly, you obviously made a good call today. Some of us, including me, took a loss. You could make the same decision tomorrow with the same set of circumstances and the exact opposite will happen. Mr. Market does what it wants and has little respect for the 2.30 candle high. The point I'm trying to make is that Net Trap has a good track record, this is why we bought it. So the chances are (we hope) that this will continue, and if it does continue to produce and we follow mechanically then we too will make plenty of pips. If you start introducing your own rules and judgment calls, you may well guess right some days, but you will guess wrong on other days and miss out on profits. Discretionary decisions can go either way. By all means, if you backtest a filter that proves over time would have consistently kept us out of loss trades then great, chance for you to either share it, sell it or keep to yourself.

Secondly, the appeal of NT for me is not just simplicity, but time. I don't have the time (nor the desire) to pour over charts. I have a tight schedule (except for today, have taken the morning off, officially sulking about the England result) another business to run and only few mins to look at the chart and place (or not place) an order. I just let it do what it's got to do. I then don't have any stress sweating over a position between 6.30 - 8.30am. Instead I'm either sweating at the gym or managing my other business, then it's a quick check at 8.30am and if still in the position then close it off. Simples.

 

[Trader333]

It may be worth considering the following:

1) The volatility of GBPUSD at time of intended entry
2) The distance from a key pivot point level at entry price.

This would help determine likely possible reversal from entry point in my view.

Also Camarilla are not the only pivot points that can be used as there are Floor Pivots and De-Mark Pivots as well.


Paul