Proposed new DOW comp. rules...

[ChartMan]

Time to re-think the DOW competition rules. It seems unreasonable that two people can effectively "block" someone elses guess by putting a near guess either side of that. Two out of the three will lose.
So, here is my suggestion :-

1: Guesses to be in steps of 25 OR
2: Guesses to be in steps of 10


PLUS

3: You get the 5+5 if you are within +/-25 and you get a bonus if you are within +/-10

PLUS you get 5 for getting the direction right- up , down or same, just as it is now.

Now we can have "joint first" etc.

Of course, this assumes you enter within the prescribed times set out already. Enter on Thursday, and you only get 1+1 and 1 for bonuses.

Comments and suggestions please.

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi Chartman

Please forgive me in advance for a silly question. It is late on a Monday (and I'm fast running out of coffee )

Is it true to say you could get lots of winners instead of just the one per week

If so I presume the increments would run 9000-9024 then 9025-9049 etc. As it is possible to see everyone else's educated guesses, coming to the last week, if your ahead, you would just copy a rival's guess.

 

[ChartMan]

OK So maybe stick with it how it is, but u get 5+5 if your guess is within +/- 12, PLUS 25 - the difference.
EG your guess is 9017. dow closes at 9028. You are within +/- 12 so you get 5+5. Then you get 25 - ( 9028-9017) = 14.
so total is 24.
Complicated eh? It is late and my brain hurts too, having only just finished work.

 

[jpwone]

Don't display the actual guess until the last day of the competition. Display the range that it is in ie. its up and its greater than 9600 or its down and its less than 9600.

This way two people could have the same guess but would have no idea that this was the case and no-one would be able to straddle someone elses guess deliberately.

 

[ChartMan]

great idea, so simple

 

[Bullish Bear]

I agree with the bonus and more than one winner idea. But I don't think that someone making an entry earlier should disallow another competitor from making the guess they want..

 

[Crazy Guy]

I'f there's two or more with the same guess the first gets the extra points.

 

[twiggytwo]

Hi Chartman, I have my own indicator that I use to predict the Dow, I call it The Staircase 258 Indicator. I put it together myself, I dont worry about what others use but I do look at the entries after I have posted , when I see the the sandwich approach I have a good laugh. As it's only a bit of fun this Dow contest, lets keep it that way and we can all have a laugh and enjoy it, after all you do seem to win a lot, so what is your secret to success ? Best Regards Twiglet

 

[ChartMan]

Twiggy, I just bribe Sharky to fix it for me. What's this 258 thing? sounds exciting. :cheesy: You're right, It's good fun and shouldn't be treated as anything else. I've said it before and taken a bit of flak for it. Your guess ( or anyone's ) is as good as mine. And it is a guess, with a tad of TA behind the guess.This week I decided that it looks like up,just, so I went a couple of points above the minimum for an "up " status. If you get the direction right every week out of the four, you're an expert of experts and will win the comp hands down. The market forcasters get nowhere near this. :cheesy:

 

[twiggytwo]

Hi Chartman, the indicator is based on the steps in an upward trending Dow. 258 points a step, sometime it gets to the next step on the stairs, sometimes it falls back, think of it as a drunken man trying to climb a staircase, at the moment he has fallen back by 21 points ( last nights close) so it is 21 points oversold. add tonights loss to the 21 and you will have the amount the Dow will rise to, IF it is UP on friday at the close, after the figures that are coming out at 1-30pm GMT on Fri move the market . This may sound like crap, and I expect it is to others, but it is working for me. The 258 step is my estimate after trading the Dow for 2 years. this is not advice to anyone as you need to realise it may not work. Regards Twiglet

 

[twiggytwo]

Hi chartman, I forgot thursday 6th ( my indicator's estimate for the Dow close tomorrow THURSDAY is, if UP ^ a poss 39 points ) and for the FTSE 100 if UP ^ a poss 62 points to 4365 close this is not advice to anyone as it may not work !
regards twiglet