Profitable trading strategy? How easy?

Vasco da Banana said:
You want a simple, profitable system? Easy. Go long on an index future and hold the position. You might spend days, months, years or decades with a paper loss, but unless the index hits zero (in which case you'll have plenty of other things to worry about, like the end of the world and being dead) you'll make a profit eventually.
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what a load of B%llocks that is. what about the 20 year wait,the fees,the exchange fees,ets etc and even then you are assuming history repeats itself. Oh and about 20m of funds
 
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I remember someone once boasting that he could make profits if the only entry was on the toss of a coin, ie 50% win rate. As far as I can remember he claimed it was his management of the positions that made the profits.
 
Pat494 said:
I remember someone once boasting that he could make profits if the only entry was on the toss of a coin, ie 50% win rate. As far as I can remember he claimed it was his management of the positions that made the profits.
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That can work. If you check, you might find that someone is still in business.
 
Pat494 said:
I remember someone once boasting that he could make profits if the only entry was on the toss of a coin, ie 50% win rate. As far as I can remember he claimed it was his management of the positions that made the profits.
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Seems reasonable enough to me :)
 
Pat494 said:
I remember someone once boasting that he could make profits if the only entry was on the toss of a coin, ie 50% win rate. As far as I can remember he claimed it was his management of the positions that made the profits.
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Unless you can operate with zero spreads. It isnt 50%.
 
If we assumed we had a completely random market with zero spreads then every trading system you could concieve would break even if traded to infinity. In fact it would be impossible to create a trading system that would either lose or make money over the long term - you would only achieve either scenario because your profit would fall at a specific point on the bell distribution curve - but you would have no control over where that was.

Given this knowledge - then any trading system you create must exploit any non-random & predictable nature of the market.

By choosing a random entry system you are effectively saying, I can't predict what happening now but I'll open the trade anyway - then I'll wait until I can predict with some accuracy what's going to happen and exit the trade accordingly.

There's simply no point in entering the trade randomly - that part of the trade you will constantly lose money on through paying spread. Wait until you are able to make the exit prediction - and then enter the trade accordingly. You will make far more money.
 
Have a look at a site like zulu. Out of thousands of SPs there are only a handful that are profitable. Put in commission and slippage and there are a lot less.
 
Hoggums said:
By choosing a random entry system you are effectively saying, I can't predict what happening now but I'll open the trade anyway - then I'll wait until I can predict with some accuracy what's going to happen and exit the trade accordingly.
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Theres no prediction involved in any part of the process. There's no hanging around waiting for something to happen, if nothing's happened within a specified duration, the trades closed, at a profit or a loss, and I'm happy to pay the spread (on average)

I don't hang around hoping that something might happen, or predicting that something might happen, something either happens or it doesn't
 
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...scose-type-question-thread-2.html#post1430678

arabianights said:
markets are order driven... everything follows from that... think about it :)

most of the time the orders are essentially random, so it's a random walk

but people know they'll even out, if nothing is happening. so they can implement mean reversion strategies if the walk goes too far

but then if something has happened, the imbalance is likely to continue... so then we trend, partially in anticipation of further trending

etc etc etc
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One of the best and most concise explanations I've seen on here.
Whether or not you buy into that, trade outcome is always random, if it wasn't nobody
would ever have a losing trade...
 
the hare said:
Theres no prediction involved in any part of the process. There's no hanging around waiting for something to happen, if nothing's happened within a specified duration, the trades closed, at a profit or a loss, and I'm happy to pay the spread (on average)

I don't hang around hoping that something might happen, or predicting that something might happen, something either happens or it doesn't
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Your logical reasoning has holes like Swiss cheese. This is holding you back.
 
Shakone said:
Do you mean "So now you are back, peddling on the coin toss", or do you mean
"So now you are back-pedalling on the coin toss" ?
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I think you and Neil are conspiring to send me back to skool. It won't work, I will never go back !
 
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