no, I think your maths is wrong..you have just stated quite clearly
40% fail if long, 40% fail if short
so if you take 10 long and 10 short, 40% of 10 will fail ie 4 trades, 40% of shorts will fail. so thats 8 out of 20 will fail
8 out of 20 is not 80% failure its a 60% win rate
is maths not one of your strong points either?
your village foroom, think of your village
go back to school and learn maths