Profit / Loss Analysis

💡LUX Brief Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar (as I wrote in the previous post), broke through the marker level 0.98750 this week and is confidently holding above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. This week's high is 0.99000 and the level I indicated earlier at 0.99250 has not yet been reached. Therefore, in the short term, I can sum up the moderate probability of further growth. But at the same time, it is worth to note that the market is in a correctional channel and its expansion in case of growth to 1.0000 is still unconfirmed. On the hourly chart, the MACD indicated a decline, with a clear divergence. The 4-hour MACD is also close to crossing the signal line and divergence. Therefore, a continuation of the narrowing correction at the moment is more likely than expansion and growth to 1.000 and above.

euro dollar update (jf3987n).png
 
💡LUX Brief Euro Dollar update

Euro Dollar (as I wrote in the previous post), broke through the marker level 0.98750 this week and is confidently holding above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. This week's high is 0.99000 and the level I indicated earlier at 0.99250 has not yet been reached. Therefore, in the short term, I can sum up the moderate probability of further growth. But at the same time, it is worth to note that the market is in a correctional channel and its expansion in case of growth to 1.0000 is still unconfirmed. On the hourly chart, the MACD indicated a decline, with a clear divergence. The 4-hour MACD is also close to crossing the signal line and divergence. Therefore, a continuation of the narrowing correction at the moment is more likely than expansion and growth to 1.000 and above.
The option to expand the correctional channel was justified and the price confidently passed the key level of 1.0000. On the daily chart, I see a 100 EMA at 1.01050 which could be the top of this momentum. Its further penetration will mean striving for the next target of 1.0200, which is the high of September. The probability of growth is also supported by the MACD local convergence on the current correction.
Euro Dollar Oct 26 upate (Ybwyi7).png
 
The option to expand the correctional channel was justified and the price confidently passed the key level of 1.0000. On the daily chart, I see a 100 EMA at 1.01050 which could be the top of this momentum. Its further penetration will mean striving for the next target of 1.0200, which is the high of September. The probability of growth is also supported by the MACD local convergence on the current correction.

💡 LUX update analytics EUR/USD

As I showed in the replied post, EMA 100 has become the top level for the current corrective trend and now its frames are determined. There is a decline inside this channel and the key support level will be 0.98750, which just coincides with the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart. This support area also includes the EMA 100 level, the line of which is at 0.98650. A short-term fall within the trend will be a temporary correction and further long-term growth is highly possible with EMA 100 passing to a higher point 1.0200, which I mentioned about.
Euro Dollar Oct 28 (NI1Hnb).png
 

T.C.

Newbie
If I had a dime for every time I closed a trade too soon I'd be rich alone from that. As long as a profit was made I don't worry much about it.
 
💡 LUX update analytics EUR/USD

As I showed in the replied post, EMA 100 has become the top level for the current corrective trend and now its frames are determined. There is a decline inside this channel and the key support level will be 0.98750, which just coincides with the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart. This support area also includes the EMA 100 level, the line of which is at 0.98650. A short-term fall within the trend will be a temporary correction and further long-term growth is highly possible with EMA 100 passing to a higher point 1.0200, which I mentioned about.

💡 LUX update analysis EUR/USD

The accurate forecast last week came true 😎 and the price fell to the key level 0.98750, where the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines are now located on the four-hour chart.
A clear channel is forming on the daily chart and today the price was at 0.9948, but now remains below the EMA 100 0.99365 on the hourly chart. This level will be a marker for further growth. The MACD signal on the hourly chart is quite clear, as is the fact that the EMA 200 is broken. But at the same time, in the longer term, there are no such confident indicators yet. The MACD on the 4-hour chart is just approaching the signal line crossover. I think it's too early to talk about a strong bullish position, because the market can still make several attempts to go below 0.98700 and consolidate in the trend channel support area near the level of 0.98300.
Euro Dollar update Nov 01 (Wehp9h).png
 
If I had a dime for every time I closed a trade too soon I'd be rich alone from that. As long as a profit was made I don't worry much about it.
This is also the right position, I support it. I work on my mistakes and try not to fall into the abyss of greed between striving for excellence and losing control of the market.
 
💡 LUX update analysis EUR/USD

The accurate forecast last week came true 😎 and the price fell to the key level 0.98750, where the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines are now located on the four-hour chart.
A clear channel is forming on the daily chart and today the price was at 0.9948, but now remains below the EMA 100 0.99365 on the hourly chart. This level will be a marker for further growth. The MACD signal on the hourly chart is quite clear, as is the fact that the EMA 200 is broken. But at the same time, in the longer term, there are no such confident indicators yet. The MACD on the 4-hour chart is just approaching the signal line crossover. I think it's too early to talk about a strong bullish position, because the market can still make several attempts to go below 0.98700 and consolidate in the trend channel support area near the level of 0.98300.

EUR/USD trend channel is not broken and the market activity over the past 2 days just confirmed my forecast and even exceeded my expectations. Thus, the price fell to 0.97300, and after a short-term consolidation, returned to the trend channel.
At the moment, the EMA 100 and EMA 200 levels on the four-hour chart are the key resistance levels at 0.98600 and 0.98700. At the same time, the EMA 200 level on the hourly chart also placed in this area, and the EMA 100 has already been passed at the price of 0.98370. Moreover, the MACD indicator after a strong impulse signals further growth, this can be concluded after the crossing of the signal line.
On the daily chart, there is a convergence with the current correction of the main downtrend, which in turn is in a weak divergence from the MACD.
I can sum up that the growth potential is quite high. But will it be in the near future, in my opinion no. In the near term, I see the possibility of a decline from EMA 100 and EMA 200 levels to ones with lower pressure at 0.98300 and 0.98100, and there remains the possibility of consolidation and the formation of a narrowing correction. Of course, the breakout of the resistance level of EMA 100 and EMA 200 is a marker event for further growth and continuation of movement according to the current corrective trend on the four-hour chart.

EUR USD analysis Nov 04 (Te83gU).png
 
Continuing the chain of posts about the Euro Dollar.
If you read the title of the previous post: "EUR/USD will try to continue rising after a short-term correction" then this would already be enough to use in trading. Fed and ECB, do you follow my blog? The pair fell to 0.99350, which is lower than I predicted (1.0000). After that, the market turned around and started a strong impulse growth and breaking through the resistance of 1.00930, it reached the level of my forecast of 1.0200. But the market did not stop there, so now we see that it is moving steadily towards the target of 1.0380 EMA 200 on the daily chart, and I believe that this level will be reached during the current wave of growth or during the final third wave that will follow after the correction. I suppose that the historical resistance levels of 1.03230 and 1.03670 may be the final point for the current impulse and the beginning of a short-term correction.
The MACD signals on four hours chart has strong buy direction as well as on Daily chart. The hourly chart MACD indicator shows not so confident buy signal, with a slight divergence and RSI in overbought area. It means that the market is ready for short term correction decline.

Euro Dollar Nov 11 (I43uhb).png
 
💡LUX trading analysis

The first eur/usd and gbp/jpy trades are unprofitable, because I mistakenly took the breakout of the key marker level of 1.03880 on the EUR/USD as a buy signal. The breaking through this level turned out to be false, and the trade was closed by stop loss.
GBP/JPY reached the level of EMA 100 on the hourly chart and EMA 200 on the thirty-minute chart. Given the situation on the four-hour chart and the MACD divergence, I decided to sell. This is a hasty decision that did not take into account the possibility of an extension of the corrective trend on the four-hour chart to the EMA 100 level.
After the mistakes analysis was done, I analyzed the Euro Dollar market in depth, and a short analysis was published on telegram channel. A few minutes later, I received a confirmation of a sell signal and opened a trade. Further it was closed on a take profit level and covered the loss.
Full trading day Nov 15 (hHu72).png
 
Last time we discussed that the Euro/Dollar could fall within the current uptrend on the four-hour chart, and I also suggested that a correction might be forming.
At this stage, the correction really forms a triangular area, within which fluctuations occur. Moreover, this pattern can be expanded to a rectangular area in case of a decline below 1.03300 and thus form a horizontal corrective trend with support at 1.02740 or below 1.02230. Level 1.03460 ЕМА 200 on the hourly chart will be a marker level and a preliminary sell signal. This signal is likely to be confirmed by the MACD crossing the signal line on the hourly timeframe.
But further, I would also like to consider a more interesting but not yet confirmed variant of the correction formation with a subsequent rise above the daily EMA 200, to a key level of 1.04870. It has already been reached twice within this correction and is a key and marker level for further growth to 1.0600 – 1.0630. Growth inside the triangular correction can be signaled by another breakout of the daily EMA 200.
I also want to pay attention to the daily MACD, which now indicates a weak sell signal. This could mean a decline in the long term. In addition, the MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart, where the correction diverges from the descending MACD, is hinting at a fall.
Euro Dollar Nov 29 (Hdgi7y).png
 
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