Trading Talks EUR/JPY April 13The position of the euro yen today creates an opportunity to sell within the current correction.
The 30 minute EMA 100 is now trying to keep pressure on the 136.100 level. And there is a prospect of maintaining this pressure and even a decline to 135.500, where the 200 EMA is located on the hourly chart. Further formation of a correction is possible when moving below 135.500, to the borders of the expected rectangle 134.300 – 134.100 It is still too early to talk about breaking through the correction for the further upward impulse, which is clearly pronounced on the daily timeframe. I believe that the correction is not yet complete.
Confirmatory indicator MACD on the four-hour chart shows a signal of further decline.
But nevertheless, I consider growth above 137.150 as a prerequisite for further growth with breaking through the level of 137.500.
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Yes, this indicator does not show the future, but it allows me to more clearly understand the specifics of the market behavior (its tendency). The divergence, convergence and position of the signal line allows me to get the necessary confirmations, as well as possible movement options.Nice thread. I’m curious how reliable you find the macd, imo it’s a lagging indicator but your doing well with it.
The losses that we are getting from our trades needs to remain under control.The euro yen trade was the final one this month and I have a few days to rest.
The current month was quite active (8 trades, 62% win rate) and thanks to the risk management algorithm, I was able to achieve the trading plan completion.
Monthly target 12% achieved (12.89%)
Weekly Target 3% achieved (4.24%) View attachment 317354
The previous forecast of the euro franc downtrend was correct. The currency pair really lost the support of the channel and continued its fall.
Now I propose to look at the situation more broadly. It should be important that in the higher term, an area of amplitude narrowing has been formed. This is clearly visible on the daily chart. There are several key support levels that will significantly prevent a fall below 1.02, 1.01, 1.00.
In turn, the key resistance at 1.034 and EMA 100 is currently the most likely high of the current local direction.
The main trend that can be seen on the weekly chart is downward. Based on this, it is worth counting on updating the minimum, and falling to the seven-year mark, which was reached back in 2015 at a price of 0.965. But this is a long-term option in which the Euro loses its strength above the franc.
A more positive temporary option for the euro would be the beginning of this trend correction and a return to the level of 1.046, where EMA 200 is located and growth to 1.06
I can't say that I don't look at higher timeframes. Rather, this time I gave preference to signals on a shorter term, although there were no strong preconditions for this.Can sometimes be guilty if your first mistake as well. I can get tunnel vision on the lower time frames and fail to look at the bigger picture forming on the higher time frames and then get slapped.