Profit / Loss Analysis

Euro Franc July (Jqpc4m).png


eur/chf buy was manually closed at 0.98215, although the stop loss was set lower at 0.98128.
This trade was based on a market analysis I posted here: [link removed]
I got MACD confirmation on the 4-hour chart, and there were no preconditions for a sell signal on the 1-hour chart. It was necessary to pay attention to the false breakdown of the EMA 200 on the hourly chart, although the EMA 100 was already below. Since I saw that the currency pair was going into a long fall according to the MACD, EMA and the formed down channel, I decided not to wait for the stop loss to be reached, which was the right decision, as you can see on the chart.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Pound Yen July (JRc87e).png


gbp/jpy buy was manually closed at 164.918 after a long drawdown that I had to wait out.
I opened a trade according to the MACD data, after breaking through the EMA 200 on the hourly and four-hour charts. If I had held during July 27, I could have taken profits around 166.00, but I decided not to take risks and closed the trade before the key resistance at 165.100. It was a hasty decision, due to some tension that had arisen during the drawdown earlier. The MACD and EMA provided clear enough data to trade further, but I didn’t use them.
 
New Zeland Dollar July (Jhc9w).png

nzd/usd sell manually closed at 0.62269.
The main factor that pointed me in the direction of this trade was the divergence on the four hour chart. Also, I saw some consolidation in the EMA 200 area, which indicated that the market is not ready for a breakout and this is a sign of further uptrend correction. This is one of the few trades I have ever traded from the top of an uptrend knowing that it could be dangerous if the channel widened.
 
Euro dollar may continue to rise after a temporary correction. This prediction can be made according to a fairly clear MACD signal on the hourly chart. EMA 100 and EMA 200 indicators on the hourly and four-hour charts will help to finally decide on the further movement.
On the hourly, these lines are now resisting further growth and the price is right below them, making them key levels in the 1.0200 area. On the 4-hour chart, watch the EMA 100, which has already been tested at 1.02085 but has not yet been broken, and the EMA 200, which is obtaining more resistance power as the distance between the EMA lines narrows. Level 1.0283 is a key resistance point and the highest in the last month.
As for the MACD on the four-hour chart, there are no preconditions for growth so far, but everything can change if the price grows above 1.02085. Anyway there is no divergence on MACD.
If the option is not confirmed, then it is likely that the corrective trend that formed after the rapid fall to 1.0000 will be changed and we will see new attempts to beat the key levels of 1.01 and 1.00

Euro Dollar 03 Aug (7hYK4a).png
 
Euro Dollar narrows the amplitude channel.
A narrowing of the channel, or a decrease in the amplitude of market fluctuations, especially with a horizontal or close to horizontal movement, is always a very clear sign of further impulse that, like a tightened spring, will jump up or down.
This situation is now on the Euro Dollar, which has fallen to a critical value over the past month and is trying to get out of the depth called 1.000.
The correction, which began to move up with a quite confident amplitude, gave hope to become the beginning of a return at least to the values of 2017. But as we see now, the correctional channel has sharply reduced its amplitude.
Of course, on the Daily chart there is a clear MACD indicating further growth, which may lead to positive thoughts for the Euro. At the same time, a very weak, barely noticeable divergence appeared on the 4-hour chart. Price fluctuations repeatedly cross the EMA 100 level, but without reaching EMA 200, the chart goes down again. From this we can conclude that EMA 200 will be a key resistance level, and in case of an upward momentum, it will be an indicator of growth to 1.0340 and 1.6070. In case of fall, It will be more difficult to determine end level, due to several support levels (1.0140, 1.0125, 1.0100).
If the first level is broken by downward momentum, I would trade on the basis that the next one can become a key support and stop the fall.
Euro Dollar Aug 08 (Bdh89).png
 
The week of 15-19 August destroyed the monthly gains of the Euro Dollar.
After the correction to a maximum of 1.0368, the Euro dollar is again trying to return to the 1.000 value. It can be concluded already after the breakout of the EMA 100 and EMA 200 levels on the four-hour chart and the MACD signal line cross, which was shortly before.
At the moment, I do not see such a level of support that could prevent the reaching of the 1.000 mark.
The question that interests everyone the most is whether the fall will be lower. At this stage, I believe not, but I will not trade on this assumption without clear indicators.
I managed to take profit early in the week on the fall, but then I had to be careful not to hit one of the support levels formed by the breached upward correction trend.

Euro Dollar Aug 19 (eIcn0C3).png
 
Euro Dollar has reached its destination 1.000.
Now the interlocutory conclusions about the further movement are the following:
- on the MACD daily signal line indicates further decline, but more importantly, with equal price levels on July 14 and today, MACD levels are very different, which is a divergence or its beginning.
- in any case, the situation looks like that even if the key level of 1.000 is broken, in the long term, the market will return again above the key level 1.000.
- if the level of equality will be impregnable, then I would suggest the level of 1.0100 and 1.1830 as resistance levels and 1.02850 and 1.03650 as key resistance levels and possible boundaries of horizontal movement.
- the current fluctuations between 1.000 and 1.03650 can be the beginning of consolidation with the prospect of further breaking through key boundary levels.
Euro Dollar Aug 22 (Pnbcw3).png
 
The recent trading on the Euro Dollar was profitable with 40.9 pips. The currency pair began to rise within the corrective horizontal channel, so I opened buy trade and set the take profit at 1.00099 before the 1.0016 correction line and the trade confidently reached it and was closed at 1.00099.
This month, the trading plan was calculated with a minimum profitability of 10%, and in just 3 trades I managed to achieve it.
 

Attachments

  • August trading 25 (J9q3HGA).jpg
    August trading 25 (J9q3HGA).jpg
    25.6 KB · Views: 28

MonkeyMike

Junior member
Is it possible to somehow see your trade? By invest password for example. You have a very good mistake analysis. I want to see professional trading online.
 
Since the end of August, we have been observing smooth wave fluctuations near the levels of 1.0000 and 0.9900 and the formation of a divergence on the daily chart. Moreover, taking into account the daily downtrend, I see that the amplitude of its intra-channel fluctuations has significantly decreased after reaching the key level of 1.0000 and temporarily breaking through it. Despite the fact that the Euro/Dollar is below the key level, I count that the divergence allows me conclude about a further trend reversal or, as a minimum task, growth to the EMA 100 1.0300 and EMA 200 1.0620 levels on the daily chart.
On the four hour chart, the EMA 100 1.00085 and EMA 200 1.00556 levels will offer resistance and are likely to serve as markers to determine further growth.
The recent rush to 1.0200 and rapid fall back makes me very cautious, as the signals that the indicators show during news releases may be false. So if you are trading on support and resistance levels, then make sure that the price has consolidated after breaking through and use additional analysis methods to confirm.

Euro Dollar September 21 (Mi3uyb).png
 
Profit / Loss analysis September 21

EUR/JPY
After clear MACD signals (crossing the signal line and pronounced convergence) on the hourly chart, also price line position under the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines, gave me reason to open a sell trade.
I took into account the possible risks that could be associated with support at 142.00 and it can be noted as EMA 100 on the four hour chart. But having shown patience and trust in my trading system, I was in no hurry to close the trade too early, during the pullback of 141.840 – 142.250.
In addition, I saw that the Euro Dollar (correlated currency pair for the Euro) did not receive enough support to break the trend.

The GBP/JPY is a currency pair that correlates with the EUR/JPY. The trade was processed according to a similar scenario. I traded the downtrend on the hourly chart even though the MACD was not as clear as the Euro Yen. I took this fact into account during risks calculation.

For both trades the stop loss levels had been placed above the nearest resistance levels.

Euro Yen profit trade September 21.png

profit loss analysis september 21.png
 
gbp jpy continues to rise. If you follow my analysis then on September 30 [link removed] I published a preliminary analysis of a possible growth, it was justified.
I took into account the EMA 200 and EMA 100 levels, as well as the MACD signal, to determine direction confirmation. When the market made a small correction, from the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart, another wave of upward movement began according to the formed trend channel, and after a confident breakout of the key 162.00 area, the market grew to 164.400 (the key level of my forecast) and above, reaching the top of 165.200.
Following the current market position the medium-term trend is made up of 3 waves, the last of which has not yet begun a correction. Thus, I am considering the possibility of further decline to the level of 162.750. On the hourly chart, the MACD is beginning to signal a possible decline, just as the RSI is near the 70 level on the hourly and four-hour charts.
Since the EMA levels are broken by uptrend, I cannot exclude the continuation of growth after a short-term correction. If the local top 165.200 is passed, then the level 166.320 and the key top 168.00 will become the next possible striving points. The MACD on daily chart indicates the following growth.

Pound Japanese yen October 4 (d9bHI37).png
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Today’s analysis is related to my EUR/USD trade on September 27th. Also welcome to read about my analysis of profitable trades that I made before in the previous post.

So, the Euro/Dollar, according to my forecast, had a clear divergence on the daily chart. Declining to the levels of 0.95700 formed a narrowing correction, which can be seen on the four-hour chart, where the MACD showed a crossing line signal for a further increase. At the same time, on the hourly chart, the correction showed a strong upward potential and show a convergence on the MACD as confirmation of further growth after going beyond the correction. I waited until the price starts to fluctuate steadily around the key support area of 0.96000 and opened a buy trade.

The first critical moment was when it reached 0.95700, when it became clear that the narrowing correction had changed to a directional corrective trend, and in case of an absolutely correct trading decision, it was necessary to close the trade during the following growth and fluctuations around 0.96000 key level. But instead, I was counting on a rise to the higher 0.96300. However, as the result the trade was close at stop loss level 0.95681.
Thus, this is the mistake in too high deviation in risk management. In this situation, it was necessary to respond to risk signals with higher sensitivity.

Profitloss Sept 27-28.png
 
Trading profit / loss analysis of EUR/USD trade

I published a short analysis before opening a trade on my telegram channel. if you are interested in understanding the principles of trading on my PAMM account, then welcome.

The main theses of analytics on which this trade was opened:
  • confident breakout of the level 0.97230
  • breaking through the level of EMA 100 on a thirty-minute chart
  • clear divergence on the hourly chart
  • clear MACD signal on the hourly chart and on the four-hour chart.
In addition to these data, I used the LUX algorithm for calculating possible risks , stop loss level set at 0.96634
EurUsd trade profit analysis.png

euro dollar 1 trade myfxbook Oct 12.jpg
 
Last edited by a moderator:
💡 LUX brief analysis

The Euro Dollar has broken through the EMA 100 on the 4-hour chart and is moving towards the key 0.98100 level. I will keep an eye on these markers and if they are confidently broken, then I will consider the prospect of growth to EMA 200 on the four-hour chart 0.98550.
If the current rise is a false breakout of EMA 100, then the decline will probably be next to 0.97500, but will not cancel the option of further growth. It is important to note that the recent rise with a top in October was the beginning of a correction, which can now continue and form either an upward corrective trend channel or a narrowing corrective pattern.
Also of interest is the Euro Japanese Yen, where the price hit a September daily high of 145.630, which appears as a growth marker as a key resistance on the daily chart. There are also a MACD growth signal.
euro dollar chart Oct 17 (J3he7i).png
 
💡 LUX trading process

Euro Dollar and Euro Japanese Yen trades closed with profit 📈💰
I posted the video of trading and closing on my telegram account.

EUR/JPY closed with take profit 2.81%

EUR/USD closed manually (close to the TP level) after I noted a signal for probably correction (fixed profit in case of further fall 🛡) 5.41%

Total profit today: +8.37% 😎

2 trades Oct 17 for forums.png
 
Euro Dollar is preparing to expand the correction.
On the daily chart, the Euro/Dollar shows a confident correction, with MACD convergence, and a signal for further growth. The key level, which will be the first resistance in case of growth, is 0.98750, which was reached during the previous wave of growth and touched the EMA 200 line on the four-hour chart. It is also important to note that the divergence on the daily chart along the main downtrend was broken in the fall to 0.95350.
On the four-hour chart, the short-term picture is clearer. The current narrowing corrective channel can be expanded. The level 0.98750 will exert strong pressure and prevent the trend from expanding, so its breaching will be a marker indicator for growth to 0.99250 and 1.0000.
As for support, the 2 levels that I would pay attention to are 0.97000 and 0.96350. It should not be overlooked that the MACD on the four-hour chart is still in a sell position and at the same time, only historical levels provide support, while resistance is also due to indicative ones.
Probably this week we will not see a way out of the correction, or its expansion, but the next trading week will start with more obvious signals, which will increase certainty.
Euro Dollar Oct 21 (2bHce8).png
 
 
Top
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock    No Thanks