probabilities /stats and odds

[tomcat]

All,

i was wondering whether anyone knows the odds or where i can find out the the stats for various tradng setups .

i would like to know if any one can answer what are the odds of the following setups

1. breakouts
2, retracements
3. swing plays of Supp/res
4.hammers
5. MA cross's
6. hooks

 

[chump]

tomcat,
if only it were that simple
1.breakout ..what is your definition of a breakout ..from what to where..etc
2.Retracement ..what is your definition of a retracement from where to where
and so on and so forth

 

[tomcat]

my defintion is simplefied into a vanilla form.

1. Breakout-

Move over Previous H
Move belowr Previous L
Move over day High
move over day Close




2. Retracement.

a pullback from a H/L to another price level(supp/rst).


I would like to know generally the odds on these plays. I also would like to know about the odds of 3 bar breaks.- open high low breaks.. etc.. as many as i can thing of, but essentially ..do break out plays(trends) have better odds than channel plays..and what are the stats..

and where can i find info on the stats of trading setups.

cheers

tomcat,
if only it were that simple
1.breakout ..what is your definition of a breakout ..from what to where..etc
2.Retracement ..what is your definition of a retracement from where to where
and so on and so forth

 

[sandrab]

tomcat,
if only it were that simple
1.breakout ..what is your definition of a breakout ..from what to where..etc
2.Retracement ..what is your definition of a retracement from where to where
and so on and so forth

Cryptic as ever - but worthless as usual. It's time for you to go back in your hole chu(i)mp

 

[chump]

Tom ,
with regard to breakouts and retracements there was an extended thread going on between Sulong ,DB Phoneix and some other members..I can't remember the name of the thread and there's a lot of material on here so why not shortcurt and pm the guys mentioned..see if their work was producing any of the information you were looking for. Can't help you with the other stuff ...

 

[danfreek]

Technical analysis of stock trends by Edwards and Magee and Encyclopedia of chart patterns by Bulkowski might help you.

The best way though would be to get some past data and count the number of occorances and their success rate yourself. Noty only will you know how accurate the probablility is, you will get a better feel for how the pattern looks in reality and the variations that exist.

 

[charliechan]

i suggest you take a look at some charts and work out the odds yourself.

asking others to do this for you is just lame.

besides, even if someone had done this already, who is to say that their definitions will be the same as yours, or that the odds will remain constant? (they wont anyhow)

 

[sulong]

Tom,
To get any meaningful stats for the types of trades you listed, you cannot use a "simplified vanilla form"
Instead you need to define the way price setups for each type.
For instance, on a BO of yesterdays high/low, how long has price been in the area before the bo? How much volume was used up during that time? How far does price need to travel above/below yesterdays level to be called a break and not a poke? dose the piercing price bar need to close first? And so on.

Without defining these things first, on each type of trade, you'er likely to waste your time and efforts to no good end.
I'm sure sandy can give you her expert advice on that matter.

 

[chump]

that's what I was trying to say when I said "if only it was so easy"

 

[tomcat]

I understand your point and have taken it on board.

i see you are a tape reader from you comments.

i like to see the bar jump the resistance completely as confirmation together with other signals i look for. however, for this idea i have i am not interested in the the building up to the break but just the break iself.. completely raw.

..but as mentioned i shouldnt be lazy and i should gather these stats myself.

Tom,
To get any meaningful stats for the types of trades you listed, you cannot use a "simplified vanilla form"
Instead you need to define the way price setups for each type.
For instance, on a BO of yesterdays high/low, how long has price been in the area before the bo? How much volume was used up during that time? How far does price need to travel above/below yesterdays level to be called a break and not a poke? dose the piercing price bar need to close first? And so on.

Without defining these things first, on each type of trade, you'er likely to waste your time and efforts to no good end.
I'm sure sandy can give you her expert advice on that matter.