Betfair - Exchange Blackjack 100% odds?

[Optioholic]

It appears as though there are odds on Betfairs's Exchange Blackjack, that make it possible to lock a %3 - %6 ROI.

I often see players 1,2,3, or 4, with "back" bet odds of 1.03 after they have reached 21. The highest I've seen is 1.23... also after 21 has been reached.

Depending on how large of a wager Betfair can fill, you can easily place a "back" bet for $1000 and guarantee a $30 - $60 return. Often they offer upwards of a $3000 fill on these back bets. Even though commission is %2.5, you are still left with atleast a %0.5 - %3.5 profit.

I know there has to be a catch on this. Either betfair's odds are incorrect or you cannot be filled on the odds displayed. I'm located in America so I cannot download the client or participate in actual wagering/bets. Maybe there is a discrepancy in the website verus client-side odds, I have no idea.

Can someone please inform me on this?

This is a screenshot of what I'm describing (giving a %23 return on a hand that has a %100 chance to win):
http://www.mediafire.com/?qitz23dxevfm8z1

I am also curious as to the fact, that after odds of 1.06 are displayed for a player who already has 21, the odds decrease from 1.06, to 1.03. This means that any "delay" I may be experiencing, likely isn't due to a delay, because of the fact that the odds are still in my favor of locking a profit.

 

[Optioholic]

Up.

Anyone with Betfair, can you confirm or disconfirm this?

 

[6am]

Why do you think the player has a 100% chance of win?
As far as I can see the dealer has 11 therefore it is possible that the dealer will get 21 as well. Also it is possible that the dealer will have 5 card charlie and the player will lose.

 

[Optioholic]

Why do you think the player has a 100% chance of win?
As far as I can see the dealer has 11 therefore it is possible that the dealer will get 21 as well. Also it is possible that the dealer will have 5 card charlie and the player will lose.

I'm being shown that a player has a winning hand, yet various odds are still offered to back that player. At the end of the game it displays players with "21" as winners, even if the dealer gets 5 card charlie or a blackjack.


So if player 1, 2, and the dealer have 21, and the dealer has a 5 card charlie... it displays player 1, 2, dealer, and 5 card charlie as winners.

If someone can log into the actual Betfair client and verify this, that is what I'm looking for. I'm determined that this is either a false display of odds, or that there are just a lot of idiots on Betfair who haven't got a clue what they're doing.

 

[6am]

I'm being shown that a player has a winning hand, yet various odds are still offered to back that player. At the end of the game it displays players with "21" as winners, even if the dealer gets 5 card charlie or a blackjack.

Do you have a screenshot or Game ID?

 

[Optioholic]

Yes, I have a link to a screenshot in my first post.

You can either download the image, or click "view" below the download button.

 

[6am]

Yes, I have a link to a screenshot in my first post.

You can either download the image, or click "view" below the download button.

The dealer has 11 in your screenshot. As I explained before it is possible that dealer will get 21 (in that case dead heat rule will apply and you will receive part of your stake back) or get 5 cards charlie (in that case player will lose).

Do you have a screenshot where the dealer got 5 card charlie and the player declared a winner (as you claim)?

 

[Masquerade]

There are some really dim people around. You think you're going to play a house game and make a 3-6% ROI?

 

[6am]

OK, I watched a game for sometime and if player and dealer get the same number "tied - dead heat" is declared. I did not play for several years in exchange blackjack, but I think that in this case the odds are split and you paid half of the odds. For example, you have got 21, dealer got 11 and you bet 100 pounds @1.2. In case dealer get 21 as well you will get paid @0.6, i.e. you will receive back 60 pounds. This is different from normal blackjack where you receive your stake back.

I wrote bot several years ago to calculate proper odds and place bets automatically. There were several issues which I was not able to overcome
- odds are always true odds
- it is not possible to get in front of betfair market maker servers
- commission will eat any profit if you manage to get in front of betfair servers

Overall waste of time, however I did enjoy doing math and programming bot.


Edit:
There was one opportunity here. In the past market makers bots sometime dissappeared for unknown reasons. So there was opportunity to make a market for a short period. I am not sure it happens now.

 

[Optioholic]

There are some really dim people around. You think you're going to play a house game and make a 3-6% ROI?

I didn't know the game was a house-game until someone from another forum told me today.

I thought the game's wagering was run based on the bets of other players, not Betfairs own bank. In this case anyone would be out of their mind to play any "X-change" game on betfair.

Opportunities to make 3% - 6% ROI did used to occur on house games believe it or not... not anymore though, or atleast very unlikely. It is still possible though to find a loophole in a house game with all the online casinos popping up.

A prime example was single deck blackjack back in the day, when you could actually exploit card counting to make way beyond 3% ROI, and that was a house game.

There are websites that run RNG single deck blackjack (which is likely still rigged), and I can bet some flimsy online casinos will try to offer single deck live blackjack in the near future. Some casinos are just as dumb as the players that play their unbeatable games...


I did recieve a response in another forum as well about the Dead-Heat rule, which renders these odds useless as they work against you just as I thought. Thanks for the info.

 

[Masquerade]

I haven't heard of people getting 6% ROI card counting blackjack. I'm seeing up to 2% and I believe ace tracking to be a better strategy. You can still get single deck in certain places though (at least in Vegas.)

 

[Optioholic]

I didn't know they still run single deck blackjack in vegas. There's got to be a mess of people getting banned over at those places...

The casino still makes money on the game anyways, but that's crazy that they still run single deck blackjack over there.

 

[Masquerade]

I saw it in Treasure Island, they have it in a few other places but there's not many places dealing it there. I think i'd play the single deck if I had the choice but I get the impression they may not be keen on some of the stuff I do and wouldn't let me play long if I was doing well. If they're only playing a few boxes at the table, you might get 2 deals before a shuffle. Otherwise if all the boxes are filled they'll probably shuffle after every deal.

 

[vespar]

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