Price Action - Seriously

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gamma

Experienced member
My image of counter_violent is the arnie one
this might have something to do with my age.
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
I still can't work out why everybody is going off the deep end about Howard Cojones.

It's because he's a scam artist. Has been right from the start. It just took different people a different amount of time to realise that.

If Howard wasn't selling what he preaches, it would be fine. Spanish89 employed similar trading techniques but he wasnt selling training. No harm, no foul.That was a lot of fun.

In the threads, HC uses some fairly simple debating techniques that leave all issues unresolved. What this does is perpetuate discussions as people try to explain things in different ways that HC then claims to not understand because they didn't explain properly. This makes Howard look smart to people that don't know about the techniques employed.

Some people think he's just deluded and doesn't really understand the issues. The fact is he does understand but uses techniques that are employed to obfuscate the issue. Politicians do the same thing.

Debating with Howard doesn't work, so why not have pepole offer useful information in return for scraping the nasty ring of scum off the bathtub that is T2W? :p
 

kimo'sabby

Experienced member
It's because he's a scam artist. Has been right from the start. It just took different people a different amount of time to realise that.

If Howard wasn't selling what he preaches, it would be fine. Spanish89 employed similar trading techniques but he wasnt selling training. No harm, no foul.That was a lot of fun.

In the threads, HC uses some fairly simple debating techniques that leave all issues unresolved. What this does is perpetuate discussions as people try to explain things in different ways that HC then claims to not understand because they didn't explain properly. This makes Howard look smart to people that don't know about the techniques employed.

Some people think he's just deluded and doesn't really understand the issues. The fact is he does understand but uses techniques that are employed to obfuscate the issue. Politicians do the same thing.

Debating with Howard doesn't work, so why not have pepole offer useful information in return for scraping the nasty ring of scum off the bathtub that is T2W? :p



Wot other markets do you fade? Or is fading the ES an exclusive endeavour?
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
Kimo - it sort of depends what you are fading. By 'faders market' I mean that most of the time the ES is rangebound and it has a tendency to reverse in the area of yesterdays high/low, overnight high/low, todays high/low, the open and yesterdays close. There are of course 1-2 days a fortnight when it just runs in one direction and fading is a painful experience.

Thinner instruments like CL & DAX will be rangebound intra-day and then break out with a move 10 times the size of the range. You will not find the CL & DAX bound as well as the ES is.

I am sure you know all this though...
 

kimo'sabby

Experienced member
Kimo - it sort of depends what you are fading. By 'faders market' I mean that most of the time the ES is rangebound and it has a tendency to reverse in the area of yesterdays high/low, overnight high/low, todays high/low, the open and yesterdays close. There are of course 1-2 days a fortnight when it just runs in one direction and fading is a painful experience.

Thinner instruments like CL & DAX will be rangebound intra-day and then break out with a move 10 times the size of the range. You will not find the CL & DAX bound as well as the ES is.

I am sure you know all this though...


I didn't know it all in the way that you have just explained it to me,....thanks, i'll re-read at a later date.

Fading the ES ranges...mmm...sounds easy.

Cheers.
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
I didn't know it all in the way that you have just explained it to me,....thanks, i'll re-read at a later date.

Fading the ES ranges...mmm...sounds easy.

Cheers.

Well - it sure isn't easy. As we all know, it's very easy to make hindsight observations based on past price behaviour but it's a lot harder to make money real time based on the same observations.

For a start - you quite often have overnight high and yesterdays high a couple of points apart. Do you fade the first one you hit? If you do fade it and get stopped, do you fade the higher one after you just got stopped out? That's a tough trade to take.

It is much better to get a bounce off the level, then have the market push through the level 1 or 2 times. You'll miss the once that put in a 'v' shaped reversal of course but those pushes through don't happen by accident. Lots of times the ES will move back to the opposite end of the range. A bounce off yesterdays high will traverse back to yesterdays low for instance.

Still, it's certainly handy to know these things. When I look at the DAX and CL, I marvel at how random they look compared to the ES. I am sure people that look at DAX/CL every day see order there. I certaily don't. If you see order in a market and have some expectations of how things can play out, then you can start looking for ways to trade it but it wont be as simple as fade every level.

BTW - don't pay much attention to the past 2 weeks action when looking at this as it's been so narrow. In narrow times, levels will appear more reliable - so you need to go back to volatile times too.
 

kimo'sabby

Experienced member
Well - it sure isn't easy. As we all know, it's very easy to make hindsight observations based on past price behaviour but it's a lot harder to make money real time based on the same observations.

For a start - you quite often have overnight high and yesterdays high a couple of points apart. Do you fade the first one you hit? If you do fade it and get stopped, do you fade the higher one after you just got stopped out? That's a tough trade to take.

It is much better to get a bounce off the level, then have the market push through the level 1 or 2 times. You'll miss the once that put in a 'v' shaped reversal of course but those pushes through don't happen by accident. Lots of times the ES will move back to the opposite end of the range. A bounce off yesterdays high will traverse back to yesterdays low for instance.

Still, it's certainly handy to know these things. When I look at the DAX and CL, I marvel at how random they look compared to the ES. I am sure people that look at DAX/CL every day see order there. I certaily don't. If you see order in a market and have some expectations of how things can play out, then you can start looking for ways to trade it but it wont be as simple as fade every level.

BTW - don't pay much attention to the past 2 weeks action when looking at this as it's been so narrow. In narrow times, levels will appear more reliable - so you need to go back to volatile times too.


:sleep: Sorry mate, don't mean to be rude. So wot you are saying is it's different at times?
 

HowardCohodas

Experienced member
I still can't work out why everybody is going off the deep end about Howard Cojones.
You have to feel badly for DT. Most of my responses to his posts were to repeatedly point out (some with references and links) the errors (perhaps accidental the first time, certainly malicious the many following times) he constantly made in his premises from which he tried to persuade us with his conclusions.

Conclusions based of false premises may be true, but are clearly unpersuasive. But he needs to have someplace to display his indignation for being ignored rather than taking the time to create an argument based on what I've actually written.

I used to be angry about it, but no longer. I now watch these behaviors more with amusement to see what I can learn about human nature. I didn't even get angry when he apparently posted this same OP on a forum which will not permit me to respond. It probably serves me right that I use my real name while most here use pseudonyms.

It is what it is.

And so it goes.

(BTW, I am not teaching anything about trading, no matter what you may have read by many posting on T2W.)
 

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
HoCo,
Actually D-Toast knows a helluva lot about trading and, imho, is one of the best half dozen traders and contributors here. You could learn a lot by reading what he has to say.
I'm relieved you have decided not to attempt to teach people your "methodology".
Howard, all life is a work in progress and humility becomes us all.
Stick with the travel agency and that treadmill of yours and good luck with those.........
Richard
 
Last edited:

HowardCohodas

Experienced member
HoCo,
Actually D-Toast knows a helluva lot about trading and, imho, is one of the best half dozen traders and contributors here. You could learn a lot by reading what he has to say.
I'm relieved you have decided not to attempt to teach people your "methodology".
Howard, all life is a work in progress and humility becomes us all.
Stick with the travel agency and that treadmill of yours and good luck with those.........
Richard

Re DT: Many here have a good opinion of DT's trading. I don't know enough to make a judgement. I'm afraid my judgement of him as a person is mainly based on his continuous posting of a false representation of my methods as premises to analysis and conclusions I was supposed to accept. Repeatedly pointing out that his premises were false fell on deaf ears. I feel badly for him that he did this as I do not believe that it inured to his benefit.

Re Training: I have not renounced my intention to train some time in the future. I just want to make it clear that I do not currently teach any trading strategy. I do teach other subjects such as concealed carry weapons certification in Ohio, structured decision making and a presentation skills workshop for technical people.
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
:sleep: Sorry mate, don't mean to be rude. So wot you are saying is it's different at times?

Perfectly reasonable question...

In a way, yes, it is different at times. When you see levels like this, first thing you think is that you can just short all the upper levels and long all the lower levels. You'd even be able to automate it, sit back and let the computer do all the work. This type of trading would be one-dimensional and purely objective and it would be lovely if it was that easy.

You could tell yourself that the R:R is 1:5 but there will be trades that blow right past you, there will be trades like the one below that don't get to your target, there will be trades that shake you out and carry on to the target and then there will be trades that just go straight your way with little fuss. The R:R gets knocked around a lot by the time you factor all this in.

Here's HGSI from Friday. A trade I took but which didn't work out the way I expected:

4-10-20114-01-26AM-2.png


T1 - a trade which I expected to go to 29.20 or above.
T2 - a potential short at resistance (if price got there)
T3 - a potential long at support (if price got there)

I would take T1s all day but there is no way I'd put a limit order to short T2 or long T3.

T1 is a horrible trade to take at the time, it's against a big move down, it's in the middle of nowhere. Why go long there? (clue - has nothing to do with pin bars). T2 & T3 are easier trades to take, they are visually appealing, there are 'reasons' for price to bounce off the level. We can see people reacted in a certain way at that point previously and there is an expectation that they will do this again.

The fact that T1 is horrible and T2 and T3 are obvious is part of the reason that T2 & T3 trades will lose you money over time. You can look back on charts and the working T2s & T3s will stand out a mile, hence they will be net losers.

Now - if it got to T2 pulled back, pushed through the resistance 10 or more cents, then I would be much happier shorting it, despite the fact that to most people the resistance would have failed. This is part of the reason it works :confused:

So - to answer the question - the levels work, you just need an approach to them that is less obvious that fading the first hit. I do not believe you can tell in advance whether a level will hold or not, although on a high volume day that seems to be moving like an unstoppable freight train, it's a good bet it wont.

There is a reason for the way these levels behave and it may or may not be important to know the reasons. If you figure out how to play these levels, the reasons may not matter.

Still - it's the reasons that are the carrot here, not the effect they have on the markets.
 

arabianights

Legendary member
It's because he's a scam artist. Has been right from the start. It just took different people a different amount of time to realise that.

If Howard wasn't selling what he preaches, it would be fine. Spanish89 employed similar trading techniques but he wasnt selling training. No harm, no foul.That was a lot of fun.

In the threads, HC uses some fairly simple debating techniques that leave all issues unresolved. What this does is perpetuate discussions as people try to explain things in different ways that HC then claims to not understand because they didn't explain properly. This makes Howard look smart to people that don't know about the techniques employed.

Some people think he's just deluded and doesn't really understand the issues. The fact is he does understand but uses techniques that are employed to obfuscate the issue. Politicians do the same thing.

Debating with Howard doesn't work, so why not have pepole offer useful information in return for scraping the nasty ring of scum off the bathtub that is T2W? :p

This is where I disagree with you about intent. Yes, I've noticed the silly "debating" (I wouldn't call them that, more sales) techniques. I've also noticed (as have you I suspect) some absolutely pathetically amateurish attempts at NLP (which is 99% bs anyway).

But I still think he's just a deluded old man who read some latter day carnegie and thinks he needs the bloody thing to push his crap... he's mad, not bad :)
 
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