Best Thread Potential setups

[lewtz]

Sorry mate. You are right.

My issue is that the Pin Bar as a point of reversal is only validated retrspectively. Follow the price of Gold down and there are plenty of other daily pins that came to nothing. Agreed 800 is a nice round number, but then again so it 750 and 700 and 650.

Looks at previous levels of Support or Resistence I see nothing at the 800 level.

Plenty of other daily pins on it's way down?

Looks like price is right at the upper pivot zone you can see I've marked on this chart.

 

[mb325]

Lewtz, can't quite see where you started your fib from, i'm guessing it was somewhere around 640 which was hit on 16th August (07)? I did try and draw some fibs on my chart but wasn't sure where to start...what made you pick this point?

 

[simoncs]

anybody see the two pin bars at 12pm for FTSE and DOW
FTSE was touching the 38.2fib from daily swing high/low

that was all i could see though - took them out of lack of control
seem ok at the mo but could end up biting me.

sorry haven't worked out how to save charts on IG at mo

 

[rags2riches]

Firstly tell us what you think

OK.
1. Ross Stores (ROST) All time high but potential double top with divergence. No overhead resistance so higher risk. Support possibly at 3600 and 3475 ish. Going against a major trend.

2. Hovnanian (HOV) Possible false break upwards around the 50% fib retracement and pivot line. Could see resumption of downtrend to test lows at 440.

3. Tiffany (TIF) Pinbar at strong pivot line with resistance going back to 2000! Against this is the double bottom off recent lows at 3540ish.

4. Sonus Networks (SONS) pinbar at support in 2005! Anyhow this just opened down sharply so I can't play this one.

 

[omni]

Gold Gold Gold Gold

Hey everyone,
The gold shout out was because............>>

1. It pinned on a 4hr timeframe and then took out the high in the next bar.
2. It got to 800
3. It is also at the 365 ma (a big moving average for a lot of people out there)

It wasnt a call to buy..... just a note to everyone who might think 800 is key. As you have all discussed, it would be catching the knife.

Laters.

 

[simoncs]

USD/CHF 1hr pin bar just gone 1400hr
nose seems to touch s/r on hourly basis, bouncing off 50EMA, and 23.6fib
also going in direction of recent daily trend which might help if other indications aren't strong enough

 

[Stuart14]

Agreed on ROST. It is an all time high, it could be a pivot but you are going against a major trend. I'm not sure i'd take it.

I live HOV more. The pin is off the 50% Fib and the 200sma. Would potentially take a short position here.

TIF is off the 61.8% Fib so again I like that one more.

 

[lewtz]

Lewtz, can't quite see where you started your fib from, i'm guessing it was somewhere around 640 which was hit on 16th August (07)? I did try and draw some fibs on my chart but wasn't sure where to start...what made you pick this point?

Most recent swing low -> swing high that would be able to capture the move. Unfortunately, my data feed only goes back to Jan 07, otherwise I probably would've tried other areas as well.

 

[omni]

Hey all,
There is a triple daily top on usd/jpy @ 11040.
I will be watching this one super careful tomorrow.

 

[Nordtrader]

Hey all,
There is a triple daily top on usd/jpy @ 11040.
I will be watching this one super careful tomorrow.

Good spot Omni. Interesting inside bar action on the 1hour here too. May be setting up for a move during overnight / tokyo hours...

 

[Ljr]

GbpJpy

There is a hourly pin on GbpJpy on a good pivot from the daily at around 20820.

Now the pin did not trigger on the next bar which I don't like but has now formed an inside bar

What do you guys think?

and look I got the image in the post... thanks lewtz

 

[Ljr]

No worries. The pin has been broken

 

[superspurs]

well done ljr

Two daily pins to consider. Not sure about the one on the Dow but the Gold pin looks good as it is comming off the ascending trendline and also confluence with 23.6% fib.
Will keep an eye on them and see how they close

ive been back over the thread and this run on gold started with a nice pin,called by ljr well spotted sir.over $160.could well be that the pin of the year award is done and dusted.:clap:

 

[Ljr]

GbpJpy failed Pin

Hi All

As you can see the Pin I mentioned above did not trigger and the price dropped almost 100 pips below the low of the Pin. Now as you can see there was an inside bar so would you play this as a pin or an inside - or doesn't it matter?

Where I'm going with this is even if you are playing it as a pin is it not worth putting in an order to trigger in the opposite direction at the break of the other side of the Pin. Wouldn't you do this anyway if you where treating this as an inside bar?

I suppose the most obvious problem with this is the price could have broken down below the Pin and then gone up but if you were treating this as an inside bar how is this different?

I know we shouldn't chase the market but I'm just trying to understand how an inside bar should be traded and how is it different to a Pin bar in this repspect and would this be a good strategy to use for failed Pins.

It's obviously also very important where the price action occurs and in this particular trade I thought it was at an important level so would be interrested to hear how you guys may have traded this or any thoughts on it.

Thanks

Leon

 

[Ljr]

ive been back over the thread and this run on gold started with a nice pin,called by ljr well spotted sir.over $160.could well be that the pin of the year award is done and dusted.:clap:

Thanks Spurs

Unfortunately I never took that trade Can't really remember why I guess I felt the risk was took great for my account. It really does look like a great trade if you look back at it and also not much retracement at any point. Obviously I'm a little annoyed with myself now about it but thats the way it goes.

What this does do is give me more confidence in Pin Bars and shows that being patient can and will pay off.

If there was an award for Pin of the year it should go to TD for sharing all his knowledge

 

[trader_dante]

Thanks Spurs

Unfortunately I never took that trade Can't really remember why I guess I felt the risk was took great for my account. It really does look like a great trade if you look back at it and also not much retracement at any point. Obviously I'm a little annoyed with myself now about it but thats the way it goes.

What this does do is give me more confidence in Pin Bars and shows that being patient can and will pay off.

If there was an award for Pin of the year it should go to TD for sharing all his knowledge

That is an excellent pin.

And it goes to show two things that MUST be clearly understood and accepted.

Pins can be taken when there is no level at all but price has moved strongly in one direction indicating it is extremely overbought/oversold.

But you have to bear in mind that you will very likely take MORE losers than winners doing this.

So how do you make it profitable? You have to run your winners.

That Gold trade is up over 1,600 ticks on the entry and that is WITHOUT additional entries on the way down. That one trade would pay for many, many losers even with large stops. Even with stops of 100 ticks, a trade like that pays for around 16 losing trades and believe me these large moves are not as infrequent as you would believe.

But here is the second major point. Look at the chart attached. Pay careful attention to how the pin is triggered and you go up around 100 ticks or more before the position comes back and you go into a small LOSS.

Then the move kicks off.

This is the retracement bus (see arrow). It is bloody vicious and I will tell you right now that if you move your stops to breakeven after the first sharp move in your favour, it is going to come back and take you out before it continues.

I have seen this time and time again and suffered it even recently as a professional.

We've got traders at my firm looking to make around 5-10 ticks on a trade and I would have to watch a 50+ tick gain come all the way back to a possible loss.

I couldn't do it at first and I'm the one here preaching it to all of you!! And what happened to me? I took handfuls of breakevens and then when the losses came they were full sized.

I dropped almost £900 in the first few weeks of being live because of this.

When I finally accepted this is what happens and let things play out, I've now made back all my losses and am well into the black.

BE WARNED.

 

[eltrot1979]

Nice looking setup on silver

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=38639&stc=1&d=1218578447

 

[omni]

For those of you that like the longer term trades, check out.......>>

Aussie pairs....... namely:

EURAUD (long)
GBPAUD (long)
AUDUSD (short)
AUDJPY (short)

Wait for pullbacks.

And.....
EURNOK (short)
EURUSD (short)
EURJPY (short)

Some major levels / price action being seen in these.

Daily & Weekly tf.
Sorry, no time for charts.

As an update for the longer term guys (probably only a couple as it seems everyone is on 1hr / 4hr timeframes).
These pairs served good moves.
Obviously top 4 are correlated but i was so convinced by price action that i took a chunk on each.

Still riding eurjpy, audjpy and took half off the others on monday at the major levels.

EURAUD (long)......... now +600
GBPAUD (long)...........now +700
AUDUSD (short)............ now +700
AUDJPY (short)...........now +600
EURNOK (short)..... i never took
EURUSD (short)............now +600
EURJPY (short)...........now +500

Anyone else out there on longer term moves hiding behind the scenes?

ps. And yup, i went against the grain of this thread and bought gold at 814 today....... (backed up by the above call on silver, cheers )

 

[omni]

hey guys,
cant put a graph up from here but check out eurcad.
........ weekly, daily timeframes

This one is now about +200.

 

[omni]

Pin bar testing former support from opposite side following breakout?

Eltrot,
I was looking at this also (eurgbp short off the support level overhead). Think it has failed (tonight) and bust thru, back into the channel. Will wait to see what develops. Good call tho