Best Thread Potential setups

[superspurs]

TD trades high probability setups, and as such with that trade you can see he has got support at 9755,an inside bar shows indecision,so when price breaks the high or low,direction has been resolved,in this case when the high of the IB was took out it also broke the downtrend line at the same time exploding it higher,just my tuppence

 

[trader_dante]

Hi rider5,

Inside bars can be tricky to trade and you are right in assuming that the correct thing to do is sell resistance but sometimes you get a feeling about something and this is what I had. For some reasons I am getting a server error in posting charts but if you look at Cable you will see it had broken out of the downwards trend on the daily TF (connect the November '07 and March '08 highs) and then retraced to re-test them from above. This is a classic move. The market also retraced to the 61 fib from the recent swing low to the swing high on the daily TF.

This gave me confidence the trend up is underway again. As Superspurs said, it's just a case of finding an entry point long which is minimal risk.

Price was winding up tight with several inside bars. The descending TL had been re-tested several times and the price wasn't coming off but rather was holding there.

What really did it for me though was the fact that before Cable went, USD/JPY suddenly started to collapse. I mean really collapse.

This was all I needed for confirmation.

 

[rags2riches]

Thank-you all

Thanks for all your helpful replies.

FYI I only watch 3 markets exclusively: usd/jpy, eur/usd and gbp/usd looking for intraday opportunities on 5 min charts (whilst being aware of S/R on higher timeframes).

I saw a 5 min spike, zoomed out and it happened to be a 1hr pinbar.
-8 pips stopped out, +29 pips on the short reattempt.

I think pinbar trading is a great strategy but the higher timeframes just don't suit my personality. Time will tell if I can survive 5 min charts (still fuming at missing the usd/jpy collapse).

 

[rider5]

Hi Superspurs, TD,

Thanks for the explanation. When you lay it all out it seems so simple.

Hopefully I will also one day come to the point where I will be able to recognise these things in real time. I'll surely keep on staring at charts, practicing TA and following this great thread.

Thanks again.

 

[grimweasel]

Has anyone taken the pin on aud/usd?
There has been a little retracement and my only worry is the current fundemental strenght of the aud and the support above the s/r that has been made in the bars after the pin?

 

[trader_dante]

Euro

First chart is 1hr zoomed out. Second chart is a closer look at the 1hr.

 

[1Pipped]

First chart is 1hr zoomed out. Second chart is a closer look at the 1hr.

I just read this:
-------------------------------------------
EURO-DOLLAR: Rebounds off that recent dip low to.....

Market News International
7/14/2008 2:32:00 PM
EURO-DOLLAR: Rebounds off that recent dip low to trade around $1.5460 but chatter suggests flows are limited. Chatter adding stops under $1.5840 now, perhaps not a surprise given overnight low at $1.5842.
-------------------------------------------

From this:
-------------------------------------------
Advanced Currency Markets - Latest forex news
-------------------------------------------

Mentioning almost the exact level (1 pip off ) you have on your chart there TD.

 

[rags2riches]

First chart is 1hr zoomed out. Second chart is a closer look at the 1hr.

Great hint.
I always have my nose pressed too close to the window. The 5 min usd/jpy triple top was an indication for me.

 

[superspurs]

did anybody join in on the gold B/O and retest,bullish OB,this could retest the highs

 

[superspurs]

daily view

 

[trader_dante]

I just read this:
-------------------------------------------
EURO-DOLLAR: Rebounds off that recent dip low to.....

Market News International
7/14/2008 2:32:00 PM
EURO-DOLLAR: Rebounds off that recent dip low to trade around $1.5460 but chatter suggests flows are limited. Chatter adding stops under $1.5840 now, perhaps not a surprise given overnight low at $1.5842.
-------------------------------------------

From this:
-------------------------------------------
Advanced Currency Markets - Latest forex news
-------------------------------------------

Mentioning almost the exact level (1 pip off ) you have on your chart there TD.

Ignore words like "market chatter" or you could lose your position. This has been long all the way since the chart I posted earlier.

 

[grimweasel]

A few pin bars have been 'busted' of late on the USD currency pairs; what's everyone's take on this? I sometimes struggle with tech/fundementals as I think that the news/fundementals would make a pair trade in the opposite direction to what the tech picture is telling me?

I thought that we had good pins with all the usual set up rules on 1hr E/USD and AUDUSD yest/today but they have both not turned out. I'm thinking that if one is confused by the conflicting info it may just be better to sit on the sidelines?
Today seemed like a very odd day with lots of whipsaws. The news over the weekend was all bad which should have caused joe-public to rush in and sell. This gives the pro's a chance to sell into them only to set up longs at the same time when the selling pressure runs out and clean up all the short's stops on the way up? Is this how this game works or do I read too much into it?
Grim

 

[portomar]

good looking pin on usd/zar, if you have the margin for it, i only do in paper land

 

[Angel65]

Entry Rules........

Hello T_D and all,

I would like to ask a question regarding entry rules :

Did you ever use Fibs retracement levels of a valid set-up with any success ?

For example on a bullish PB bar, you set a buy limit at 0.50 or 0.618 % fibs retracement of the PB

This method reduces your risk but you can miss some good trades if the breakout is very strong and never look back.

Thanks for your attention

Happy trading

Angel65

 

[omni]

Angel,
Regarding entry of pin bars on bar retracement.
Are you looking for the success of entry on retracement or success of pin bars that allow you to enter on retracement? If you understand the difference i am implying??

Whatever your answer, I would suggest that the answer to your question is as follows........

If the pinbar is so long that you cant put 1% of your account on the trade. You look for a retracement so that it can fit your risk criteria. Otherwise you enter at the break of the pin as usual. And yes, personally, i would say that often you do get the chance to enter on retracement with equal success.

Anyone else. Feel free to add / subtract / put your own view on this.
Regrds

 

[Angel65]

Angel,
Regarding entry of pin bars on bar retracement.
Are you looking for the success of entry on retracement or success of pin bars that allow you to enter on retracement? If you understand the difference i am implying??

Whatever your answer, I would suggest that the answer to your question is as follows........

If the pinbar is so long that you cant put 1% of your account on the trade. You look for a retracement so that it can fit your risk criteria. Otherwise you enter at the break of the pin as usual. And yes, personally, i would say that often you do get the chance to enter on retracement with equal success.

Anyone else. Feel free to add / subtract / put your own view on this.
Regrds

Hello Omni,

Thanks for your quick reply.

More clearly whatever the entry level method, I use to risk ONLY 1 or 2 % of my total equity on each trade. I mean that I NEVER speak about profit/loss in term of pips or pure money but just in term of Risk/Reward ratio.

The goal of entering a trade on a fibs retracement and NOT on a breakout is to increase the risk/reward ratio if the trade goes with you :

An example of a closed trade with €1000 profit or reward with a €1000 risk, your Risk/Reward ratio would have been :

1/1 using the breakout* entry method
1/2 using the 50% Fibs retracement method

I hope that I'm clear, if not please feel free to ask me.

Thanks

Happy trading

Angel65


* The only problem using the 50% Fibs retracement method is that sometimes you can miss good trades if the breakout is strong and never look back

 

[1Pipped]

My feeling is (and it is just a feeling, not got any stats to go off really) is that if it retraces a good amount (say 50 - 60%) it could well end up being a bit of a grinder where you might be able to take a profit and you might not just due to randomness.

But the ones that break good and fast are the ones you want and the ones that usually pay off a much bigger x:1 As you say waiting for the retracment would mean you miss these ones, and I think these are the ones you dont really want to miss!

 

[Angel65]

My feeling is (and it is just a feeling, not got any stats to go off really) is that if it retraces a good amount (say 50 - 60%) it could well end up being a bit of a grinder where you might be able to take a profit and you might not just due to randomness.

But the ones that break good and fast are the ones you want and the ones that usually pay off a much bigger x:1 As you say waiting for the retracment would mean you miss these ones, and I think these are the ones you dont really want to miss!

Hello 1Pipped,

I really hope that I'm clear when speaking of Fibs retracement set-up

An example with a valide bullish PB with a stop loss below the low of this PB would be :

1) A buy stop order + 1/2 pips ABOVE the PB high if you use a breakout entry
2) A Buy limit order at the 50% Fibs retracement of the high and low of the PB

Sorry to bother you with that, but I have noticed that after a breakout prices retrace many times before going in your direction.

I thought that it was, may be, a good way for reducing risk and increase the risk/reward ratio.

Thanks a lot

Happy trading

Angel65

 

[omni]

Angel,
I would concur..... it is a great way to minimise risk (the aim of the game, surely.....)
Hope you are enjoying the $ / stock market weakness.......

 

[superspurs]

dont worry about your entries,concentrate on selecting the best pinbars,eg MSFT weekly,i reckon the entry is the easy bit,the hardest bit is holding on to the good ones.