Best Thread Potential setups

[MrGecko]

Concomitant to the Bearish equities view that seems to be shared by a few here (including myself), thought I would post something interesting to highlight; look how the Higher Highs and Higher Lows are showing a "concertina" effect, each wave (not in an Elliot sense) having less of an impact on the upside...

The pink line shows what I mean, the Blue is just for fun.

Omni; I too am put off a little by the Bund around here... This 123 handle could prove formiddable resistance; fundamentals gonna play their part here also IMO (supply, FOMC etc..).

 

[artful_dodger]

Hi guys...first post on this thread. I usually trade gold and wondered about using pin bars. Can anyone see a pin bar in the current hourly on gold?

 

[advfntrader]

yes I can see it. not that good looking a pin though, body quite big. better one on 30 min

 

[omni]

Hi guys...first post on this thread. I usually trade gold and wondered about using pin bars. Can anyone see a pin bar in the current hourly on gold?

welcome "artful dodger"
yes. there is a 1hr pin..........

 

[omni]

yes I can see it. not that good looking a pin though, body quite big. better one on 30 min

Think to yourself........ where has price rejected? Is it valid?? Not "Ow my, that's a pretty pin"

 

[trader_dante]

Anyone shorting the CAC, be careful...The chances of a short term reversal are high.

Update on above.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Right - Buy gold below 918 any time in the next 3 days and hold on to it. You heard it first here.
We'll see if I'm right at the end of next week.

Also I had a dream about a short sharp fall in UK banks :-S

 

[artful_dodger]

Thanks for the input. I guess it was only yesterday afternoon's price level.

Will keep on checking here for ongoing views. Cheers from a sunny Strasbourg!

Ritchie

Think so yourself........ where has price rejected? Is it valid?? Not "Ow my, that's a pretty pin"

 

[advfntrader]

just goes to show that its the location thats important. pin not holding

Thanks for the input. I guess it was only yesterday afternoon's price level.

Will keep on checking here for ongoing views. Cheers from a sunny Strasbourg!

Ritchie

 

[artful_dodger]

How weird..your email said 910 but here it says 918!

Medium term I see deflation being a problem, but maybe we could revisit 950. I would say a buy around 910 would be a good one.

Right - Buy gold below 918 any time in the next 3 days and hold on to it. You heard it first here.
We'll see if I'm right at the end of next week.

Also I had a dream about a short sharp fall in UK banks :-S

 

[Technically Fundamental]

How weird..your email said 910 but here it says 918!

Medium term I see deflation being a problem, but maybe we could revisit 950. I would say a buy around 910 would be a good one.

910 would be good but I cant see 910 this week. Not with oil the way it is.


btw brent may09 hourly... possible short there.

 

[grimweasel]

just goes to show that its the location thats important. pin not holding

If i've learnt anything from TD over the year(s) guys its like Omni said;

Don't got looking for pins randomly. Set your charts up with all the SR levels etc and then wait for the market to come into those areas. If a pin forms between 2 major SR levels I usually pass on it. Pins are 5% of the trade. The other 95% is where they have formed and why. The pin just shows the rejection of that level.

I find by doing this I limit my markets down to a few pairs a day. Set the major levels on the Wkly, Daily and maybe 4hr and then scan the charts to see which pairs are coming into those levels.

I'm not interested in pairs in the DMZ (De-Militarized Zone from Vietnam days - the area of dead ground between North / South Vietnam, our DMZ being the area between the major SR levels). They don't feature that day. Only trade the pairs at these levels. Some days many will be, others nothing. Depends how many you trade. Remember, the best value is generally found around these levels.

Until you have mastered the horizontal levels I wouldn't bother trading anything else. Forget break outs, Fakeys, Patterns, Trend lines (only use them for direction if you can't see it from the bars!)

For better trades ensure you have fib confluence and make sure the hammer/star is clearly at the top / bottom of a move with a big Kangaroo tail into thin air if you like!! And make sure you take all the best-set ups to tip the win ratio into your favour. Sure, some will fail; get over it! There are no certanties in trading only probable outcomes based on rigid application and implementation of your rules. The moment you diverge from your rules you have failed. Simple.
A smoker who had given up but has a crafty fag with a beer on a Fri night has not given up and is fooling himself. Same in trading. You can't follow the rules 95% of the time and then have a 'blowout' on 5% because it's that 5% of ill-discipline that will kill you!!

I'm thinking it may be better for some of you to refer to them in their Japanese names. Shooting Stars and Hammer. Look them up on 'tinters there are loads of free examples. Shooting stars - falling from the heavens ie turning point after a rally
Hammer - Hammering out a bottom (after a fall).
Pin bars at the bottom of a move with the tail in the direction of the recent move are not 'pin-bars' but 'inverted-hammer'; when followed by a bullish bar/candle they often indicate the bottom of a move, not a signal to get short.

Study the bar; where it is and ask why; look at the PA around it. Just don't trade a pin because it's a pin bar?

Capiche??

Hope this is helpful and not a rant

 

[trader_dante]

If i've learnt anything from TD over the year(s) guys its like Omni said;

Don't got looking for pins randomly. Set your charts up with all the SR levels etc and then wait for the market to come into those areas. If a pin forms between 2 major SR levels I usually pass on it. Pins are 5% of the trade. The other 95% is where they have formed and why. The pin just shows the rejection of that level.

I find by doing this I limit my markets down to a few pairs a day. Set the major levels on the Wkly, Daily and maybe 4hr and then scan the charts to see which pairs are coming into those levels.

I'm not interested in pairs in the DMZ (De-Militarized Zone from Vietnam days - the area of dead ground between North / South Vietnam, our DMZ being the area between the major SR levels). They don't feature that day. Only trade the pairs at these levels. Some days many will be, others nothing. Depends how many you trade. Remember, the best value is generally found around these levels.

Until you have mastered the horizontal levels I wouldn't bother trading anything else. Forget break outs, Fakeys, Patterns, Trend lines (only use them for direction if you can't see it from the bars!)

For better trades ensure you have fib confluence and make sure the hammer/star is clearly at the top / bottom of a move with a big Kangaroo tail into thin air if you like!! And make sure you take all the best-set ups to tip the win ratio into your favour. Sure, some will fail; get over it! There are no certanties in trading only probable outcomes based on rigid application and implementation of your rules. The moment you diverge from your rules you have failed. Simple.
A smoker who had given up but has a crafty fag with a beer on a Fri night has not given up and is fooling himself. Same in trading. You can't follow the rules 95% of the time and then have a 'blowout' on 5% because it's that 5% of ill-discipline that will kill you!!

I'm thinking it may be better for some of you to refer to them in their Japanese names. Shooting Stars and Hammer. Look them up on 'tinters there are loads of free examples. Shooting stars - falling from the heavens ie turning point after a rally
Hammer - Hammering out a bottom (after a fall).
Pin bars at the bottom of a move with the tail in the direction of the recent move are not 'pin-bars' but 'inverted-hammer'; when followed by a bullish bar/candle they often indicate the bottom of a move, not a signal to get short.

Study the bar; where it is and ask why; look at the PA around it. Just don't trade a pin because it's a pin bar?

Capiche??

Hope this is helpful and not a rant

This is a fantastic post and should really be on the first page of the thread.

The strategy you have outlined is the the absolute single most important reason why, I believe, that I make money and many people don't. They just don't approach it right.

You can get a 90% win/loss ratio (with 3:1 average return on winners) with this strategy. If yours is not as high or not even close you are making one of the following mistakes:

Major mistakes people make:

- They concentrate on finding pins rather than working out the highest probability areas. (the main reason I believe that people don't mention Inside Candles much is that they can't get them to work! Why? Because inside bars REALLY depend on the level...more so, even than pins.

- They take pins inbetween levels where there is no room for the market to move

- They move stops to breakeven when they are up on a trade

- They take all profits at the first target rather than allowing the trade the chance to fully develop into a big winner

- They use too much stuff on their charts...indicators or moving averages etc that are going to confuse you.

- They don't stick to the correct TFs. Hourly and daily only.

 

[artful_dodger]

Thanks you guys, Very wise advice I learnt something today. Ritchie

If i've learnt anything from TD over the year(s) guys its like Omni said;

Don't got looking for pins randomly. Set your charts up with all the SR levels etc and then wait for the market to come into those areas. If a pin forms between 2 major SR levels I usually pass on it. Pins are 5% of the trade. The other 95% is where they have formed and why. The pin just shows the rejection of that level.

I find by doing this I limit my markets down to a few pairs a day. Set the major levels on the Wkly, Daily and maybe 4hr and then scan the charts to see which pairs are coming into those levels.

I'm not interested in pairs in the DMZ (De-Militarized Zone from Vietnam days - the area of dead ground between North / South Vietnam, our DMZ being the area between the major SR levels). They don't feature that day. Only trade the pairs at these levels. Some days many will be, others nothing. Depends how many you trade. Remember, the best value is generally found around these levels.

Until you have mastered the horizontal levels I wouldn't bother trading anything else. Forget break outs, Fakeys, Patterns, Trend lines (only use them for direction if you can't see it from the bars!)

For better trades ensure you have fib confluence and make sure the hammer/star is clearly at the top / bottom of a move with a big Kangaroo tail into thin air if you like!! And make sure you take all the best-set ups to tip the win ratio into your favour. Sure, some will fail; get over it! There are no certanties in trading only probable outcomes based on rigid application and implementation of your rules. The moment you diverge from your rules you have failed. Simple.
A smoker who had given up but has a crafty fag with a beer on a Fri night has not given up and is fooling himself. Same in trading. You can't follow the rules 95% of the time and then have a 'blowout' on 5% because it's that 5% of ill-discipline that will kill you!!

I'm thinking it may be better for some of you to refer to them in their Japanese names. Shooting Stars and Hammer. Look them up on 'tinters there are loads of free examples. Shooting stars - falling from the heavens ie turning point after a rally
Hammer - Hammering out a bottom (after a fall).
Pin bars at the bottom of a move with the tail in the direction of the recent move are not 'pin-bars' but 'inverted-hammer'; when followed by a bullish bar/candle they often indicate the bottom of a move, not a signal to get short.

Study the bar; where it is and ask why; look at the PA around it. Just don't trade a pin because it's a pin bar?

Capiche??

Hope this is helpful and not a rant

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Brent

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Anyone have any idea why oil is going off its head? Have i missed a statement from OPEC?

 

[Bloodhound]

T-D,
Can I ask why you like the Cac over the Dow as, as far as I can see they both have the same basic characteristics - 50% retracement, pin bouncing off a level. I'm worried I'm missing something?? The major difference, from my perspective, is in the massive stop the Dow would need over the Cac, although their R/R to the previous low is roughly the same.
Cheers
Rob

 

[neil]

spread it about

If i've learnt anything from TD over the year(s) guys its like Omni said;

Don't got looking for pins randomly. Set your charts up with all the SR levels etc and then wait for the market to come into those areas. If a pin forms between 2 major SR levels I usually pass on it. Pins are 5% of the trade. The other 95% is where they have formed and why. The pin just shows the rejection of that level.

I find by doing this I limit my markets down to a few pairs a day. Set the major levels on the Wkly, Daily and maybe 4hr and then scan the charts to see which pairs are coming into those levels.

I'm not interested in pairs in the DMZ (De-Militarized Zone from Vietnam days - the area of dead ground between North / South Vietnam, our DMZ being the area between the major SR levels). They don't feature that day. Only trade the pairs at these levels. Some days many will be, others nothing. Depends how many you trade. Remember, the best value is generally found around these levels.

Until you have mastered the horizontal levels I wouldn't bother trading anything else. Forget break outs, Fakeys, Patterns, Trend lines (only use them for direction if you can't see it from the bars!)

For better trades ensure you have fib confluence and make sure the hammer/star is clearly at the top / bottom of a move with a big Kangaroo tail into thin air if you like!! And make sure you take all the best-set ups to tip the win ratio into your favour. Sure, some will fail; get over it! There are no certanties in trading only probable outcomes based on rigid application and implementation of your rules. The moment you diverge from your rules you have failed. Simple.
A smoker who had given up but has a crafty fag with a beer on a Fri night has not given up and is fooling himself. Same in trading. You can't follow the rules 95% of the time and then have a 'blowout' on 5% because it's that 5% of ill-discipline that will kill you!!

I'm thinking it may be better for some of you to refer to them in their Japanese names. Shooting Stars and Hammer. Look them up on 'tinters there are loads of free examples. Shooting stars - falling from the heavens ie turning point after a rally
Hammer - Hammering out a bottom (after a fall).
Pin bars at the bottom of a move with the tail in the direction of the recent move are not 'pin-bars' but 'inverted-hammer'; when followed by a bullish bar/candle they often indicate the bottom of a move, not a signal to get short.

Study the bar; where it is and ask why; look at the PA around it. Just don't trade a pin because it's a pin bar?

Capiche??

Hope this is helpful and not a rant

This site will not let me give grim a rec....seems I have to spread it about...sounds smutty to me.
Seriously - excellent post Grim - bang on the button.

 

[Headless Chook]

- They don't stick to the correct TFs. Hourly and daily only.

Trader_Dante - why is it you dismiss the 4 hour timeframe? Wouldn't it be the next logical step to move to after mastering the dailys?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Trader_Dante - why is it you dismiss the 4 hour timeframe? Wouldn't it be the next logical step to move to after mastering the dailys?

I'm waiting to hear this...