Position trading stocks

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Chartsy

Well-known member
May 12, 2010
1,129
82
58
#83
Trailing stop on BK hit +1.3%

+1.83% overall
Stopped out on ECPG -1%

+0.83% overall

Turbulent markets at the moment .

Trend trading is win some lose some , hit a few home runs , and preserve . I guess I'm in the win some lose some stage.

In hindsight I should have tried to catch TTWO which is up some 8X initial risk ��
 
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Chartsy

Well-known member
May 12, 2010
1,129
82
58
#84
Took a small loss on ADX -0.3%

+0.53% overall and still holding CCE long

just one new order

buy limit FNV 76.2, stop 72.1
 

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Chartsy

Well-known member
May 12, 2010
1,129
82
58
#87
During this test run one thing has become very clear to me : due to the low frequency of trades as a position trader I should risk more per trade , at least 2-3% instead of 1%.

It may be more appropriate to change my results to R gain/loss instead of percentage gain or loss .

So I am +0.53R
 

malaguti

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2009
2,239
414
93
#88
During this test run one thing has become very clear to me : due to the low frequency of trades as a position trader I should risk more per trade , at least 2-3% instead of 1%.

It may be more appropriate to change my results to R gain/loss instead of percentage gain or loss .

So I am +0.53R
Hi Chartsy, I also position trade and my approach is the same. 1% is just a rule somebody else came up with, I will normally always risk 2-3 sometimes more depending if all factors are in my favour.
however I also have multiple times I can add to the position. This for me has made the most significant difference.
I enter at the beginning of a trend (based on a pattern for new trends), give it time and then look as you do, for those continuation trades. Without going over my total capital exposure
hope this helps you at all. PM me if you'd like to discuss approaches
 

Chartsy

Well-known member
May 12, 2010
1,129
82
58
#89
Hi Chartsy, I also position trade and my approach is the same. 1% is just a rule somebody else came up with, I will normally always risk 2-3 sometimes more depending if all factors are in my favour.
however I also have multiple times I can add to the position. This for me has made the most significant difference.
I enter at the beginning of a trend (based on a pattern for new trends), give it time and then look as you do, for those continuation trades. Without going over my total capital exposure
hope this helps you at all. PM me if you'd like to discuss approaches
Hey mate .

That's interesting that you look for bottoming patterns/enter at the start of a trend . Continuation is just one approach for sure where I try and grab a piece of an already defined trend , but I have also been studying bottoming / basing patterns which suggest a new trend ( or at least a large short squeeze and pop higher).

Take, for example this low priced stock LIQT. A cheap stock , probably for good reason , but technically it has formed quite a substantial base and appears to be rounding off , but what interests me in this case is the latest weekly candle which has a large pump of volume and imo looks poised to pop higher. Is this a similar kind of approach you use yourself ?

Ps If you fancy a Skype chat some point my Skype Id is tajammy
 

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malaguti

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2009
2,239
414
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#90
Hey mate .

That's interesting that you look for bottoming patterns/enter at the start of a trend . Continuation is just one approach for sure where I try and grab a piece of an already defined trend , but I have also been studying bottoming / basing patterns which suggest a new trend ( or at least a large short squeeze and pop higher).

Take, for example this low priced stock LIQT. A cheap stock , probably for good reason , but technically it has formed quite a substantial base and appears to be rounding off , but what interests me in this case is the latest weekly candle which has a large pump of volume and imo looks poised to pop higher. Is this a similar kind of approach you use yourself ?

Ps If you fancy a Skype chat some point my Skype Id is tajammy
continuation and new trends for me
LIQT needs longer to go. on a weekly its base hasn't been established yet and still (again, just my opinion) weekly is still firmly in a downtrend, monthly the same. I generally wait for the monthly to begin an uptrend, and take a position off of a weekly chart
take this one LSE:WEIR
monthly is establising a new trend up, as long as the last high has been taken out and weekly is establishing a continuation of its new uptrend. so i would have two positions managed off the monthly and weekly, with each new breakout on the weekly adding to the position to a max of 3 positions (on the weekly) depending on what else i might have going on



there's no right or wrong way, but its what works for me anyway
 

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malaguti

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2009
2,239
414
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#91
another one is AAL in the mining sector, showing some strength
they take longer to form, naturally as we're talking about a completely new trend but there are always continations on weekly as you are clearly pointing out..love your thread by the way and hope im not taking it off topic
 

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Chartsy

Well-known member
May 12, 2010
1,129
82
58
#92
another one is AAL in the mining sector, showing some strength
they take longer to form, naturally as we're talking about a completely new trend but there are always continations on weekly as you are clearly pointing out..love your thread by the way and hope im not taking it off topic



Appreciate the response mate . Monthly charts require the patience of a saint but ultimately very clean to trade with stocks (better too if yore holding stocks a good dividends ).

I'm still a way off understanding the many ways you can tackle trends for sure . I'm just trying to focus on one fairly narrow setup, then add some more , etc. Those are some nice charts too and any trend trading discussion is welcome 😁
 

barjon

Well-known member
May 6, 2003
9,995
1,446
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#93
continuation and new trends for me
LIQT needs longer to go. on a weekly its base hasn't been established yet and still (again, just my opinion) weekly is still firmly in a downtrend, monthly the same. I generally wait for the monthly to begin an uptrend, and take a position off of a weekly chart
take this one LSE:WEIR
monthly is establising a new trend up, as long as the last high has been taken out and weekly is establishing a continuation of its new uptrend. so i would have two positions managed off the monthly and weekly, with each new breakout on the weekly adding to the position to a max of 3 positions (on the weekly) depending on what else i might have going on



there's no right or wrong way, but its what works for me anyway

Ah,. WEIR :love:.. Lovely for me and my retracements on its 2045 to 754 decline during 2015/16 and then all the way back again to 2055 during 2016/2017. Then it went haywire and I couldn't do anything but lose money on it.

Just goes to show that even when you find one that moves smoothly in line with your strategy it doesn't last forever.
 

Jason101

Well-known member
Oct 9, 2008
1,357
211
73
#96
Hi Chartsy, I also position trade and my approach is the same. 1% is just a rule somebody else came up with, I will normally always risk 2-3 sometimes more depending if all factors are in my favour.
however I also have multiple times I can add to the position. This for me has made the most significant difference.
Ditto down to a T for me too.
I enter at the beginning of a trend (based on a pattern for new trends), give it time and then look as you do, for those continuation trades. Without going over my total capital exposure
hope this helps you at all. PM me if you'd like to discuss approaches
That must affect your win/loss rate negatively in comparison to trend a continuation.
But I am sure this is more than made up for by the potential greater longevity of the trend.
I would like to think that a new trend can be spotted at the beginning. But this seems to infer a certain extent of prediction. And a big part of my personal philosophy is not to mix prediction with trading. But I'm open minded and interested if you can point me in the direction of material on pattern recognition for new trends, as this is something I would love to explore.

Btw Chartsey, I recon your understated thread here probably holds some of the best trading information available on the net.
 

malaguti

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2009
2,239
414
93
#97
Ditto down to a T for me too.

That must affect your win/loss rate negatively in comparison to trend a continuation.
I did backtest this theory, with regard to getting in early, vs an established trend but the win rate actually was so minor it wasn't worth investigating further. However the strategy will still fire off continuation patterns.
The chart i've attached hightlight this. The green arrowed triangles just highlight the entry points in my strategy.
the coloured candles are the hardcoded "trend" rules. so i dont enter when the first blue candle appears, but when the two are in agreement
you can ignore the trend lines which dont form part of the strtaegy at all, they do however conform very nicely to the harcoded rules i have
This is the monthly S&P btw. not all charts look like this as you can imagine!

For me its not prediction. its just a statistical number. 68% of the time, based off of over 500 stocks i have winning positions going back from 2005 when i apply the same entry startegy. yet there are loads of stocks i wouldn't touch but that's just curve fitting so i will still apply the rules to those. The results would be higher for sure if the platform i use to backtest could actually factor in sector strength, however it cant :(

so my first green arrow, is my entry, the future green arrows are where I add to a position going back to my earlier post. this is my strategy anyway. backtesting this was key.
 

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barjon

Well-known member
May 6, 2003
9,995
1,446
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#98
Malaguti

Quite interesting that. My 3+ bar retracement would have had me entering in nearly the same places as yours. Would have had one certain stop out and maybe another, though.

I think it's reasonable to exclude stocks that don't move in a way that supports your strategy and have a stable of those that do. A moveable feast, of course, as per my earlier comments concerning weir.

Cheers
 
Apr 4, 2016
1,959
96
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#99
Malaguti

Quite interesting that. My 3+ bar retracement would have had me entering in nearly the same places as yours. Would have had one certain stop out and maybe another, though.

Cheers
I'd love to see your barjon candles in action. If you make some in the process, I'd be the first to applaud. Nothing makes me happier than to see success.