The results of some alternative trading strategies I have been researching
Based on 382 alerts since 11May09.
Overall Win 84.8%
1st bet win 42.9%
2nd bet win 30.4%
3rd bet win 11.5%
Losing alert 15.2%
I studied various strategies. The basic 3 bet and 6 bet system using 200 and 50 as base bets. I also tried a 2 bet system, a reverse 1st bet plus 1, Reverse bet plus 2 and reverse bet plus 3.
The most profitable system I came up with was a reverse 1st bet plus 2. It is based on betting against the alert for the 1st hour. If the alert wins you lose the bet and stop. If the alert loses the 1st hour then you win your bet and bet with the alert for the 2nd hour, then again the 3rd if required. Difference being that since you won the 1st hour you bet the same instead of doubling for the 2nd hour. This means on a losing alert you would lose $502.25 instead of $1757.25. This takes a lot of the stress off the 3rd hour alerts.
Heres the results I got for all the systems with profit figures for all alerts since June09 and also since November09 for comparison. I excluded May since it was the worst month.
Results
System since June 2009 (336 alerts)
3 Bet System -$24188
6 Bet System -$16803
2 Bet System -$8971
Reverse Single $5819
Reverse +1 $8123
Reverse +2 $11864
Reverse +3 $9767
System since November 2009 (142 alerts)
3 Bet System $3423
6 Bet System $7511
2 Bet System $1130
Reverse Single $4341
Reverse +1 $8236
Reverse +2 $12614
Reverse +3 $13432
All the systems had months that they made money and all had months where they lost. July and October09 all systems lost money (also in May but those losses are not included in above figures)
It should be noted that all systems have made a profit since November09.
Although the Reverse + 3 has been the most profitable system since November I prefer the Reverse + 2 as the losing bet is lower. When there are more losses that go beyond a 4th hour that is when the shorter Reverse systems make a larger difference by not losing as much.
If anyone wants the full results message me. I have it all on Excel.