Path For The US Today

SUNSEEKER

Established member
872 12
Path For The Us Today

I am new to this site, so if you guys have a different way of posting, please forgive me. I just wanted to give my take on where the US is headed for the day.

It looks to me as if the expiration on Friday is for sale. As I wrote last week you will see them make their move on Wednesday or Thursday the week before the expiration, and try to mislead you. The Dow made now weekly highs and feel off. So basically I am bearish for this week and expect more downside pressure. I think you will see a first hour low today in the US and then sideways to lower trading until towards the end of the day.

In the SP I am going to lean on the bearish side as long as the September contract is trading below 988, while the 992 area would imply strength in the market. Below 984 would mean a trip down to 965 at some point during the week.

The Dax is holding on to support right here in a zone between 3142 and 3132. If we trade below this area we should be on our way to 3110.

The expected path for today will be from wherever the market decides to open up. This can be 100 points higher or lower. As we are already expecting a lower open as per the futures, I would expect the Dow to open down 20-30 points, but as you know, this can change many times between now and 14:30. Once we open in the US, with a gap presumably, the market should move higher for 10 minutes or so. We should then enter into a trading range for an extended period of the day where the strategy will quite clearly be to sell rallies and buy declines. At 18:00 the market should make a top and move lower. At 19:15 the market should be positively biased for the rest of the day.
 

eminem

Active member
185 1
This is a "cut and paste" of Tom Hougaard's analysis isn't it? If so, shouldn't that be credited to the author? Unless you are Tom Hougaard of course :?:
 

Pollux

Member
97 1
SS
If you are planning a regular preview of US direction perhaps you could put it on a separate US Short term view thread so that those who mainly do the US mkts can subscribe? I would but don't necessarily want the chat on the other markets.
Thanks
P
 

stevem12

Active member
135 1
Tom,
I would like to congratulate u for the size of your cohoonas. They have to be pretty large to take up trading, but to post what u think will happen each day before the open, knowing the number of people who will only reply when u get it wrong, takes guts :D

good on you m8

Steve
 

oatman

Senior member
2,879 22
You're right there but I'm not going to post :cheesy:
Bad day to start predictions maybe....
 

SUNSEEKER

Established member
872 12
I will be happy to post somewhere else...

bit new to this site but heard good stuff about it so I thought I would chip in so we can make money....where should i post then?
 

eminem

Active member
185 1
Apologies to Tom H (Sunseeker) for casting doubts about his authenticity - I posted without looking at any of his other postings.
 

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
Sunseeker - I've moved this thread to Indices, which is probably a better home than General Trading Chat.

So you can carry on with this thread! :D
 

Bullish Bear

Member
64 0
Hi Tom,
nice to have you visit. It appears we may have a Clash of the Gurus! We have our own Sage of Farnborough ( Chartman ) who has a completely different style of trading...
You have been widely discussed recently in our chatroom and if you ever care to visit would be warmly welcomed..
As far as where to post.... I can't see a problem with posting on the indices thread...

All the best,

Neil
 

SUNSEEKER

Established member
872 12
do you have a time frame for your 1150.

This is my take this morning. I have 2 charts but heck if I know how to post them. If anyone knows, please email me at tom@cityindex.co.uk and I will mail them to you, and you can post them:

The Dow went through an important level yesterday of 9262. This was the point at which the advance on the current rally exceeded the advance from the October lows last year. I have attached a chart so you can follow my train of thought. This implies that we are in a larger degree uptrend and we can expect more upside. The most obvious target would now be 9654. However, there will be resistance at 9345 today, if we get there, as this is the 61.8% retracement of the move from the 10673 March high in 2002 to the lows of October 2002.

I have also attached a chart of the Dax CASH. This show that the current wave up from the May lows will gain equal wavelength with the first impulse wave up of the current rally. There will be resistance at 3273 where the first impulse up from March lows will gain a 2:1 extension. However, as I expect the market to gap higher and above this point I can’t see this a serious resistance. So I will keep an eye on the 3312 area in the cash index, where, as I said above, wave 5 will equal wave 1.

The expected path for today in the US as I see it will be as follows:

Positive bias between 14:30 and 14:45

Sharp move down between 14:45 and 15:05

Fairly positive bias between 15:05 and 17:50 (but not in a straight line)

Sharp move down between 17:50 and 19:00

Fairly positive bias between 19:00 and the close
 
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