Only Price and Time as Indicators

[DionysusToast]

50000 contracts traded @ 1600 .
It means 50K contracts changed hands at that level .
50K longs and 50K shorts , you cant have a long without a short .
50K could be to enter the market or to exit or a mixture of both .
Its even could be that both the longs and shorts are for an exit .
We always pay attention to market orders but we ignore limit orders . Nothing wrong with adding volume to your tools , you're free to use whatever you want , some may use a coin others may look at the sky , at the end its a battle for money and there's no such thing as a holy grail or a shortcut , just don't underestimate who's on the other side of your trades i'm sure they know all about the "volume" and they know what you know about the "volume" and what you think of it ... etc . Good Luck .

This is a fair argument against - but I do have a counterpunch!

It's not necessarily 50k shorts & 50k longs but for sure 50k sells & 50k buys.

So you would think that knowing this, the information is useless.

You don't know new positions vs old. Also you don't know long term positions (who don't care about short term action) vs short term positions (who do) - but you DO know that the short term guys will set short term direction if caught offside.

Lets say 100k contracts trade between 1850 and 1852.

That's 100k buys & 100k sells.

Now price pops up to 1854
...How many of the short term sellers are still in the market?

Now price retraces back to 1852
....How many remaining short term sellers will bail out at b/e after seeing the trade go offside?
....How many people that shorted this range before & got their a$$es handed to them will short it again?
...How many longs will add to their position after seeing price move their way?

Do we have an imbalance we can exploit?

seeing volume @ price does not tell you much until we move away from that area - because every buy is a sell...

But when you move away from a high volume area - you know who is in pain & who isn't.

And you can capitalize on that.

 

[tar]

Yes 50K bought & 50K sold ...
It could be bought to open or bought to cover , and it could be sold to open or sold to close ... etc .

 

[DionysusToast]

Yes 50K bought & 50K sold ...
It could be bought to open or bought to cover , and it could be sold to open or sold to close ... etc .

Yes - but when you leave that area - you absolutely know something about who is offside & who isn't.

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

If you're going to consider volume data in contracts you need to consider open interest as well. While my view on non-transaction based volume data is that it is next to useless, if you're going to use it, add the extra dimension that OI provides.

 

[Dinos]

Thanks F,

Will plant to join you next week. What a great opportunity to see someone's thoughts and strategy. We are all so different. This is a HUGE learning curve for me. I traded in 1994/1995 before the computers came in, the intra-day market moved differently two decades ago. I tried many indicators and went back to price. See ya next week. Laura

CAUTION.....Read very carefully things may not be as they seem here.

 

[be-positive]

CAUTION.....Tread very carefully things may not be as they seem here.

just waiting for the day when its (EU buy eg 1.39280 sell 1.39280)

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

CAUTION.....Tread very carefully things may not be as they seem here.

Understandable caution, but I think Laura is quite safe. She stated "What a great opportunity to see someone's thoughts and strategy". Once she sees there is much of the former and none of the latter and of the former none of which related to anything remotely useful to a trader I imagine she'll realize her mistake.

Or else she's another one of the The Secret brigade inwhich case it doesn't matter,

 

[be-positive]

ps ----- do yourself a favour Laura and go read Dinos posts ------ any spare £50,s roberto (lol)

 

[Dinos]

just waiting for the day when its (EU buy eg 1.39280 sell 1.39280)

LOL, the odds are better for you winning the lottery, being stuck by lightening, seeing a pig fly and dying in a plane crash before ever seeing that matey.

50 in the post to you, p not £

all the best matey

 

[be-positive]

LOL, the odds are better for you winning the lottery, being stuck by lightening, seeing a pig fly and dying in a plane crash before ever seeing that matey.

50 in the post to you, p not £

all the best matey

thats what I think the wizard will quote on thread one day

 

[be-positive]

is this flicking EU on holiday--------- in short @1.3934 maybe by this time next year its moved 10 ticks

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Again with your friend Major Magnum ?! For some reason this guy keeps campaigning for his friend Major Magnum in most his posts .
Forexmospherian was caught playing games with his so called screenshots :

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-1602.html#post2294282

yes he very supportive to those trying to learn form his thread. Sorry that is a recurring problem for you.

 

[LauraRomans]

CAUTION.....Read very carefully things may not be as they seem here.

Thanks

 

[LauraRomans]

Understandable caution, but I think Laura is quite safe. She stated "What a great opportunity to see someone's thoughts and strategy". Once she sees there is much of the former and none of the latter and of the former none of which related to anything remotely useful to a trader I imagine she'll realize her mistake.

Or else she's another one of the The Secret brigade in which case it doesn't matter,

Just to clarify any confusion about looking at someones ideas, I'd like to say that i have learned more from my mistakes than my successes. In fact, a mistake turned around could indeed be a success. So, seeing mistakes or success can only help me.

PieterS. Thank you for reading exactly what I wrote. May your attention to detail serves you well in every area of life.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Just to clarify any confusion about looking at someones ideas, I'd like to say that i have learned more from my mistakes than my successes. In fact, a mistake turned around could indeed be a success. So, seeing mistakes or success can only help me.

PieterS. Thank you for reading exactly what I wrote. May your attention to detail serves you well in every area of life.

Give me the fruitful error any time, full of seeds, bursting with its own corrections. You can keep your sterile truth for yourself.

Vilfredo Pareto

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Give me the fruitful error any time, full of seeds, bursting with its own corrections. You can keep your sterile truth for yourself.

Vilfredo Pareto

now thats optimal!

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

Just to clarify any confusion about looking at someones ideas, I'd like to say that i have learned more from my mistakes than my successes.

Then the thread in question should serve as a case study for you in that respect.

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

Give me the fruitful error any time, full of seeds, bursting with its own corrections. You can keep your sterile truth for yourself.

Vilfredo Pareto

The key in that quote is the use of the adjective ‘fruitful’. Very few errors are fruitful at all. According to Vilfredo only 20% apparently. And of those only 20% are recognized. And of those only 20% acted upon. And of those only 20% found ultimately to be of any utility. And I’d agree with about 20% of all of that.

I don’t get why Pareto is quoted so often or his truly minor and desperately subject constrained findings have found their way into such a huge area of apparent (or perhaps more correctly, alleged) application. Maybe because it’s simple and easy to sound bite and requires no empirical research or formal proofs. Yeah, that’ll do it every time.

 

[LauraRomans]

Lucky me - I just made a Fruitful Error.

I was told by my broker (and wrongly assumed)that because the big S&P rolls on the third Thursday, so should the emini S&P. WRONG

The fruit of that error led me to investigate the rollover week(s) of both the emini and big S&P. Thursday and following Friday from the Big S&P rollover don't produce consistent results (in 2002, 2008,2009, and 2011). Wa La - 4 additional long weekends per year

 

[MajorMagnuM]

The key in that quote is the use of the adjective ‘fruitful’. Very few errors are fruitful at all. According to Vilfredo only 20% apparently. And of those only 20% are recognized. And of those only 20% acted upon. And of those only 20% found ultimately to be of any utility. And I’d agree with about 20% of all of that.

I don’t get why Pareto is quoted so often or his truly minor and desperately subject constrained findings have found their way into such a huge area of apparent (or perhaps more correctly, alleged) application. Maybe because it’s simple and easy to sound bite and requires no empirical research or formal proofs. Yeah, that’ll do it every time.

here's another soundbite.

And Jesus wept