Observations of an exciting market...

[GotGold]

£/$ on the daily chart:
Watch for the breakout.........

 

[LION63]

Gotgold,

Are we watching for an upward or downward breakout? Kindly provide some figures as the attched file was not clear (even after enlarging it).

 

[GotGold]

E/$
This ones going about things in a 'text book' fashion.
Technically very bullish

The link is for word, much clearer

 

[LION63]

Much better when opened in word. As this is not the type of TA that I am used to, what is it called? I undestand the rest as it shows the same trends as the type of chart I use.

 

[GotGold]

No, problem.
I've attatched word files as well(second attatchment).

From a purely technical stand point, the triangle could break either way. Personally I would only trade an upside break due to dire fundamentals on the $.

The main point is, of course, that these big triangles can lead to big tradable moves. They are one of the most reliable of patterns and the bigger the better.

 

[GotGold]

This is just 'old school' pattern recognition.

if you want to research this type of thing go to:

http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/index.html

 

[TheBramble]

If it breaks 1.2530 and re-tests and stays above, it's bullish - otherwise, it's not.

 

[LION63]

I share the bearish view on the dollar and I would rather stay on the sidelines if the chart breaks on the downside. There doesn't seem to be much to arrest the decline at present. That could all change in a few days or so.

 

[GotGold]

Lets look at the daily Euro/Yen....
Please note longer time scale on chart.

 

[fazalv]

My take on the daily £/$.

 

[GotGold]

UPDATE ON THE $/Y TRADE

As we can see on the chart, this trade is evolving exceptionally well.

A 700+ pip move is expected from a triangle break of this size.

Watch this space......

 

[Buk]

nice trade GotGold you compound into these pops on the ladder?

 

[GotGold]

Thanks for the post.
But not sure what you mean.

 

[GotGold]

Ive, been profitable for about a year now ( yes I did take the long way round), but only using small trade sizes.
Small trade sizes enable me to keep the emotion out of my trades. This has been a crux factor for me.

 

[Buk]

do you 'add in' off your initial entry as it passes thru the levels?.....was looking at the hourly & 15min frames & apart from that line re-test, it's been a nice, clean move down. Good opportunities to add as it moves thru the round numbers.

 

[GotGold]

See what you mean,
No havn't added any lots, however I agree with you, this would have been an ideal trade to do so, what with fundamentals backing the trade an all.

Just the one short trade.

For me the very best point to enter was when the retest failed.
See attatchment.

 

[Buk]

yes, the pullback offered a pretty good low risk entry there that's for sure!......someone else was highlighting the yen pairs recently, so have been keeping a beady eye on them!.....but the pair you're on looks the cleanest of the bunch.

hope it continues to develop for you, nice one

 

[TWI]

My current favourites are short USDJPY and long AUDUSD. Always been hesitant of former due to BOJ intervention in past really screwing things up but this seems to be in the past now. As for latter it looks like a nice break and certainly good risk/reward.
At the end of the day I think money will probably be made by being short the dollar against just about any other major. It is a case of finding the best pair.
If you consider Gold a currency then this is on thread.
One interesting relationship is the spread Gold/Crude Oil it is at all time low. Buy Gold/Sell Crude Oil could be interesting, just not sure what would be the ratio.

 

[Buk]

Always been hesitant of former due to BOJ intervention in past really screwing things up but this seems to be in the past now.

yes, it's certainly deterred me that's for sure still, the move down since end Sept and again thru the triangle (which GotGold highlighted) has been very orderly.

I've had dabble or two on the Loony of late & Swissy has thrown up a couple half decent shorts off the 2650......mind you, Cable is back (albeit temporarily) to it's aggressive self this month

 

[noises49]

My current favourites are short USDJPY and long AUDUSD. Always been hesitant of former due to BOJ intervention in past really screwing things up but this seems to be in the past now. As for latter it looks like a nice break and certainly good risk/reward.
At the end of the day I think money will probably be made by being short the dollar against just about any other major. It is a case of finding the best pair.
If you consider Gold a currency then this is on thread.
One interesting relationship is the spread Gold/Crude Oil it is at all time low. Buy Gold/Sell Crude Oil could be interesting, just not sure what would be the ratio.

Unfortunately, our Japanese friends are making ugly noises again. We can expect a solid floor from here on out.