Nov Soybeans long

josbarr

Active member
Nov Soybeans
20 day exp moving average supports strong buy area as long as ADX is above 30
 

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bgold

Established member
I have been looking for an entry but frankly I am not sure whether it should be long or short. But convinced that there will be a move. I agree that this correction nicely bounced of 20ema, rising window of 23 oct, so up trend is firmly in place. If long, where would you put the stop? I would put stop at 7.42 which is still too much risk for my liking. (S F4 at 7670)

I also read some bear views, elliot wave inspired, we may have seen end of 3rd wave and beans will correct to near 6.80 just below the iv cirecled on attached chart. Buy stop at 7.85.

PS. May I ask why you quote the Nov contract which expires in 8 days?
 

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bgold

Established member
soybeans

JonnyT, Please clarify?

I think it ain't not so clear. It is a well established trend and it hasn't yet reversed. I am also reading trade reco's to go long from people with solid "grain" trackrecords.
Although I am probably contrarian by nature, the more i look at the charts, a long trade looks increasingly appealing. Look at attached hourly chart. It firmly bounced of 23Oct rising window support. Ok, I agree that momentum is weakening, but it could also be argued that yesterdays' low is end of correction.

Anyway, as I wrote, we'll probably know very soon.

What do you think of soybean oil BO Z3. At least BO broke its rising window (gap) and uptrend seems to have reversed.
 

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oatman

Senior member
With you Jonny, doesn't look so hot to me. Can't see it as a good low risk entry. It's been on the up for 4 months.
 

PeterTT

Member
Looks toppy to me .. also worth looking at cotton .. seems to have topped there too .. (disclosure I am short Cotton)

Peter
 

PeterTT

Member
Also worth looking at a chart of the CRB commodity index. That seems like it will struggle to go much higher.
Peter
 

bgold

Established member
PeterTT, Congrats with Cotton short. You omitted to shgare with us at what level?

I was also short Cotton, actuallly 2x in high 60's incl and ~8/9 Oct when there was a well timed correction and a not so well timed ciontinuation of bull run.
Cost me a little. Learnt a few lessons. Glad I didn't try to be contrarian in subsequent bullrun.
 

PeterTT

Member
I am short at current mkt levels (77.00). I opened the position on 31/10 after the massive key day reversal on 30th.. I am only very small short via a spreadbet company .. would not stop it out until it closed through 85.00.
Peter
 

bgold

Established member
Looks like a good deal although I don't understand your entry level. On Jan 31 the hi/lo range was 80.00/78.54?
On friday, S F4 broke thru resistance at 75.30. next resistance at 73.50, still targetting 65 or lower.
Congrats.
 

bgold

Established member
cotton

Apologies, I confused Cotton with Soybeans.

I am not so sure about Cotton. Your stop seems very wide to me. What is your target? Assuming a risk/reward of at least 1:2, this would put your target at 61? Certainly not impossible. I think I would put my stop at top of falling window at 80 for 300 pts risk, initial target at ~71 (eg for 600pts).
While your call may very well turn out correct, my reasoning would be that if the falling window (gap) gets filled, momentum will have turned positive and dec cotton could easily register another high before making its final reversal down (eg there would ample opportunity to put on anather short trade at higher levels).
What do you reckon?
 

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josbarr

Active member
Reuters
Published November 13, 2003

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. soybean stockpile will shrink to its smallest size in 27 years, 125 million bushels, because of a drought-stunted crop and high export demand, the government said Wednesday.

In a monthly update, the Agriculture Department also said that cotton exports would set a record of 13.2 million bales.

The USDA estimated the corn harvest at a record 10.278 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month's estimate; and soybeans at 2.452 billion bushels, down 1 percent from its prior forecast.

Voracious Chinese demand boosted export prospects for U.S. soybeans and cotton.

Private consultant John Schnittker said huge soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina totaling 3.6 billion bushels would relieve pressure on U.S. prices and reduce the chance of soybean imports. "We've never had substantial soybean imports," he said, even in years of tight supply. "A little bit of price rise will limit exports."
 

bgold

Established member
I understand that yesterdays' Crop report was considered as neutral. Considering possibility of significant or at least intermediate top is in place, I pu tin an order yesterday to sell at a 4ct reversal. Filled at 7.88 what in hindsight looks a good start.
So, short at 7.88 Stop at 7.99 (will lower today to 7.87 for BE), targetting below 7.00
Fingers crossed! It's a bit controversial as the uptrend is clearly not yet broken.

Meanwhile, my short in BO Z3 was stopped out in yesterdays' rally at 26.41 for a small profit but nowhere near the targetted 22.50. Can't have them all.
 

bgold

Established member
I am still short S F4 with stop at 787, but admittedly not with much conviction. Following disappointing (for bulls) crop report, it seems that every broker report I read is bullish targettinbg 835 near term and "beans in teens" before year-end. China being the culprit for all that bullishness. I suspect that the longer it stays at or below 780, chances rise for a more fundamental correction of the autumn's rally.
2day, 9day and 30day WMA's are still rising! But for how long? A 10ct down day would cause many trend players to unwind!


Any thoughts?
 

josbarr

Active member
DTN Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS GOOD MORNING! China has already bought huge amounts of
U.S. soybeans, but they are not done yet it seems. Obviously, they need the
soybeans, but there is a political side to this too. Trade missions will travel
the U.S. in the next month to buy U.S. goods in a good faith showing to do what
they can to lower the huge trade deficit the U.S. has with China. Soybeans and
wheat are on their shopping list, among other agricultural commodities. U.S.
dollar values continue to struggle because of uncertainty over U.S. economic
growth. Rain across most of the Corn Belt will drag out final harvest
completion, but will not affect total corn tonnage much at all.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1) China's latest trade mission will 1) It could be that recent purchases may
keep bullish enthusiasm for soybeans. already be part of that venture.
2) USDA's soybean export sales are 2) Some traders believe China will
100 to 150 million above USDA's goal. cancel some U.S. purchases later.
3) The U.S. white winter wheat crop 3) All winter wheat ratings were mostly
rating continues to drop. stable on the report yesterday.
4) Producers are still slow sellers of 4) Sales of both usually pick up some
soybeans; not much more corn either. towards the end of the calendar year.


MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS
SOYBEANS Soybean oil futures, following the lead from Malaysian palm
oil, established new contract highs yesterday. This held soybean futures in
positive territory on the close, with the JAN contact finishing a volatile
trading session 1 1/2 cents higher at $7.80. MAY, JUL, and AUG contracts were
up six to seven cents as traders continued to narrow the bull spreads that were
pushed so far out of line two weeks ago. Export shipments at 36.3 million
bushels were deemed "light" by the speculative crowd because they were down
sharply from the 55.6 million last week, but they were still more than twice
what is needed to meet the latest USDA export projection for 2003-04. The
announcement early yesterday that China had bought 563,000 metric tons (20.7
million bushels) was discounted by some thinking it was just confirmation of
last week's rumors. Call it what you will, but that alone pushes total sales
for the year over 650 million bushels after only 11 weeks of this marketing
year, leaving just 240 million left to sell the rest of the year. That is an
extremely bullish condition, proving once again, that rationing has not begun.
 

bgold

Established member
yesterday was interesting day in Soybeans!! A cancelled Chinese trip causes beans to collapse! Shame i didn't cover in the subsequent step-by-step rise. Instead I did get stopped out near highs at 779. At least I am flat and with small gain of 9ct

Now, what is next?
Although, RSI etc still do not look convincing, I think the hammer pattern should give bears reason for concern, especially on yesterdays' news.

So, I am going with the (bull) trend. Probably with entry somewhere above yesterdays' trading range? Beans in the teens!!
 

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josbarr

Active member
Soybeans:
It was all about China on Tuesday with the market spooked by news that a Chinese delegation had cancelled an expected trip to the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday. The cancellation followed on from news today that the U.S. administration would limit imports of some textile goods from China.

The administration blamed China’s peg to the dollar for the move. However, the trade sanction was seen as bearish for agricultural crops as it may dissuade Chinese buying of U.S. produce. Despite the fact that officials blamed the Chinese delegations cancellation on visa difficulties, the news was enough to prompt the markets weaker price tone as many fears that the Bush administrations move may be the start of a trade war with China.
 
 
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