I have been looking for an entry but frankly I am not sure whether it should be long or short. But convinced that there will be a move. I agree that this correction nicely bounced of 20ema, rising window of 23 oct, so up trend is firmly in place. If long, where would you put the stop? I would put stop at 7.42 which is still too much risk for my liking. (S F4 at 7670)
I also read some bear views, elliot wave inspired, we may have seen end of 3rd wave and beans will correct to near 6.80 just below the iv cirecled on attached chart. Buy stop at 7.85.
PS. May I ask why you quote the Nov contract which expires in 8 days?
I think it ain't not so clear. It is a well established trend and it hasn't yet reversed. I am also reading trade reco's to go long from people with solid "grain" trackrecords.
Although I am probably contrarian by nature, the more i look at the charts, a long trade looks increasingly appealing. Look at attached hourly chart. It firmly bounced of 23Oct rising window support. Ok, I agree that momentum is weakening, but it could also be argued that yesterdays' low is end of correction.
Anyway, as I wrote, we'll probably know very soon.
What do you think of soybean oil BO Z3. At least BO broke its rising window (gap) and uptrend seems to have reversed.
PeterTT, Congrats with Cotton short. You omitted to shgare with us at what level?
I was also short Cotton, actuallly 2x in high 60's incl and ~8/9 Oct when there was a well timed correction and a not so well timed ciontinuation of bull run.
Cost me a little. Learnt a few lessons. Glad I didn't try to be contrarian in subsequent bullrun.
I am short at current mkt levels (77.00). I opened the position on 31/10 after the massive key day reversal on 30th.. I am only very small short via a spreadbet company .. would not stop it out until it closed through 85.00.
Looks like a good deal although I don't understand your entry level. On Jan 31 the hi/lo range was 80.00/78.54?
On friday, S F4 broke thru resistance at 75.30. next resistance at 73.50, still targetting 65 or lower.
I am not so sure about Cotton. Your stop seems very wide to me. What is your target? Assuming a risk/reward of at least 1:2, this would put your target at 61? Certainly not impossible. I think I would put my stop at top of falling window at 80 for 300 pts risk, initial target at ~71 (eg for 600pts).
While your call may very well turn out correct, my reasoning would be that if the falling window (gap) gets filled, momentum will have turned positive and dec cotton could easily register another high before making its final reversal down (eg there would ample opportunity to put on anather short trade at higher levels).
What do you reckon?
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. soybean stockpile will shrink to its smallest size in 27 years, 125 million bushels, because of a drought-stunted crop and high export demand, the government said Wednesday.
In a monthly update, the Agriculture Department also said that cotton exports would set a record of 13.2 million bales.
The USDA estimated the corn harvest at a record 10.278 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month's estimate; and soybeans at 2.452 billion bushels, down 1 percent from its prior forecast.
Voracious Chinese demand boosted export prospects for U.S. soybeans and cotton.
Private consultant John Schnittker said huge soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina totaling 3.6 billion bushels would relieve pressure on U.S. prices and reduce the chance of soybean imports. "We've never had substantial soybean imports," he said, even in years of tight supply. "A little bit of price rise will limit exports."
I understand that yesterdays' Crop report was considered as neutral. Considering possibility of significant or at least intermediate top is in place, I pu tin an order yesterday to sell at a 4ct reversal. Filled at 7.88 what in hindsight looks a good start.
So, short at 7.88 Stop at 7.99 (will lower today to 7.87 for BE), targetting below 7.00
Fingers crossed! It's a bit controversial as the uptrend is clearly not yet broken.
Meanwhile, my short in BO Z3 was stopped out in yesterdays' rally at 26.41 for a small profit but nowhere near the targetted 22.50. Can't have them all.