Soybeans and Corn Futures

[Forex 2020]

Soybeans : The trade sentiment is far less rosy. Stateside, beans are watching U.S. planting weather, expecting more near-term delays in parts of the U.S. Midwest and Plains. The trade is also monitoring interior movement issues in Argentina and Paraguay caused by low water levels on the Parana River. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 93% of Argentina’s soybean crop is harvested, with 31% of the crop reportedly in poor condition. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.
The Commitment of Traders report showed that the soybean spec trader net long fell 20,401 contracts during the reporting week to 12,064 as of May 19. Managed money closed 6.7% of their longs wk/wk and opened 14,093 new shorts. In soymeal, managed money was 64% more short on the week, to 29,404 contracts. That came via new selling. The report also showed soybean oil spec traders flipped to net long. Managed money OI was up 4,174 contracts, to 99,591. About 70% of the intended US soybean crop will have been planted as of Sunday if pre-report trade estimates are accurate.

Soybeans Futures July 2020: we are short from January 21,2020 at 955. we add short position on March 5, 2020 from 915. Still on Market

Corn : Near-term planting conditions look mixed ahead of what’s expected to be a warmer, drier pattern in many areas. Planting will probably fall short of the USDA’s projection of 97 million acres, with planted area totals and quarterly stocks due at the end of June. Next week, the USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out Tuesday, delayed a day by Memorial Day. Weekly export inspections will also be out Tuesday. The USDA’s Cattle on Feed numbers look bearish for feed demand, with sharply lower placements reported in April. Corn is keeping an eye on the dry weather in some critical second crop growing areas in Brazil and for any signs of a spike in COVID-19 infections that could hamper shipping of that crop, potentially driving some business back to the U.S. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 43% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested, with 10% of the crop rated poor.
Managed money funds gained 33,948 new shorts on the week. Trade ideas for US corn planting progress are running 88-90% through Sunday

Corn Futures July 2020: we are short from March 5, 2020 from 383. Still on Market

 

[Forex 2020]

Corn futures head into the weekend with double digit losses. March futures touched limit down briefly, bounced, and still closed near the session lows. The other front months were down 21 1/4 to 23 1/2 cents. News flow was mostly positive, but money flow wasn’t. EIA data showed ethanol producers averaged 945k barrels of production per day on the week ending 1/15. That was up 4,000 bpd wk/wk. Ethanol stocks shrank 64,000 barrels to 23.628 million. Corn export bookings were on par with LW, but above expectations with 1.437 MMT. CFTC data showed a 61,985 contract decrease in managed money OI, and a 83,217 contract increase in commercial OI. That left managed money 25,219 contracts less net long (@ 349,495), and commercials 10,423 contracts less net short (@ 763,953). BAGE reported 61% Argentina’s first corn crop was in pollination as of 1/21, compared to 71% LY. The soil moisture levels have improved from 20% reg/dry to 7% reg/dry, and conditions improved from 19% good/ex to 28% good/ex.

Soybean prices go into the weekend with losses of at least 56 cents in the front months. The entire complex weakened on Friday, but the board crush spread was back up 8 1/2 cents to 80.10, as the $16-$18/ ton losses in meal and 1.08-1.20 c/lb losses in oil were outmatched by the bean decline. Chinese importers purchased 136,000 MT of old crop beans in a daily announcement this morning. USDA Export Sales data showed bean bookings were 2.649 MMT for the week ending January 14. That was split with 1.818 MMT for old crop and 831k MT for new crop. Meal estimates were also above expectations with 468,515 MT sold. Soybean oil sales were reported at 52,291 MT. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed 14,357 spec bean longs liquidated on the week ending 1/19. On net, managed money was 151,898 contracts net long. Managed money also liquidated soymeal and soy oil longs during the week. BAGE reported of the 46% Argentine soy crop is beginning to flower, which is 9.6 percentage points behind normal. BAGE reported dryness improved from 32% of the crop in reg/dry LW to just 13% for the week ending 1/21. Last year dryness only inflicted 3% of the bean crop. Conditions improved from 18% good/ex to 21% good/ex.

 

[0FXTrader0]

USD should do well this week. Equities look to have topped out and commodities have been leading this run higher, profit taking.