Soybeans/Meal

[gene]

This market is proving Oatman to be right: "A market never collapses until you're long."

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Break out

Hybrid Mode

Allow me to join in this conversation Gene. A little late I suspect. We just have to start from where we are.

I'm in for the long haul. When the chart shows a definite up trend, I will add to my position on dips.

Why on dips. Hay I will admit drawdowns make me pukeish. Eventually a dip will define a top. Wouldn’t you feel safer buying strength like Jesse Livermore taught?

People don't seem to grasp easily the fundamentals of stock trading. I have often said that to buy on a rising market is the most comfortable way of buying stocks. Now, the point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top prices, but to buy or sell at the right time. When I am bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don't buy long stock on a scale down, I buy on a scale up.

More like buy on strength, sell on weakness.

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Moore Beans

Hybrid Mode

Steve Moore has a free report on that if you are still interested. The game is just to serious to be guessing.

Therefore I think the most volatile time is definitely the July/Oct period when US weather market emerges and the least volatile around now when US crop is made and Brazil is about to become the crop focus.

 

[gene]

Well, that thing I said about being in for the long haul: That's out the window. A while back, I started trying to play the market both ways. I didn't really get anywhere, so now I'm just sitting back waiting for a bottom and watching for a seasonal trend to pick it up.

As far as buying dips: I generally wait for a well defined trend to develope, as defined by parallel or nearly parallel lines of support and resistance. In a bull trend, I buy when the market pulls back to the bottom of the channel.

Would I feel safer buying strength? Nope. I've done that too many times, only to buy when the market hits the top of the channel and pulls back. A breakout is a different story, though.

Looking at the daily chart,now, the market has broken a support line I had drawn, but has not broken much, since. So I drew another support line. The old one is now resistance. If the resistance is broken soon, I'll buy. That would put it back in at the bottom of my original channel. If the market breaks further...Great! More profit on the buy side later on.

I'm kinda expecting rust problems this year...and it looks like the US dollar may recover. However, they're talking about large supplies.
The charts will put it all together for us.

Oh, yeah: NO, it isn't a bit late at all. I was a bit early.

BTW: You should hear these gorgious dolls sing!!

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Rats!

Hybrid Mode

I bet the market would take off like a rat up a drainpipe tomorrow

The Rats are probably mating and eating. They could be in that drainpipe all day long.

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Hybrid Mode

when I see a bear seasonal like that, to get short on going into the February break. I think, what can I spread it against to filter out the shocks and reduce the margin.

What was effecting March will probably had little effect on December.

profitable 15 out of 15 yrs.

Kind of hard to figure odds with fifteen consecutive years behind it. On the long side, there has to be a series of Meal spreads that can take advantage of that bull into May.

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Slippage!

Hybrid Thread

unable to get filled quickly not as much profit as I had hoped for

There is a word for that.

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Block out opinions!

Hybrid Thread

my .. broker, whose opinion I do respect

If I was letting a person with a clear conflict of interest influence my decisions, I would get out of the game while I still have some capital left. What I see, is all that should matter when I am placing the trade.

That's not what I hear from 2 different and unrelated sources close to the grain markets.

Was there any conflict of interest with these two. What about your own personal opinion. Can you trade without rumors. Why don’t you just let other people run your funds if you think they know more than you. Isn’t that like trading by committee.

 

[gene]

I agree with you to a point, but I don't feel that I know as much about ANY market as those who work closely with a given market. I will listen to what the professionals have to say, but at the same time, I realize that one expert sees it one way, while another expert sees it the other way. I believe in letting my interpretation of the charts be my final opinion, but I want to listen to both sides of the fundamentals. Sometimes that can remind me that there are different ways to look at the same chart. I believe the current daily soybean and soybean meal charts are a good example of that. The professionals are citing bearish fundamentals, but the weekly/monthly charts tell me I should be long-term bullish. I'll wait for a buy signal; I ain't shorting this market.

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Conflicts of interest

Hybrid Thread

Brazilian Farmers Brace for Lower Soybean Prices

Source: Los Angeles Times

The Los Angeles Times, who do they work for? TFY

 

[zatara1]

Wondering why Soybean and other agricultural markets don't attract the interest of a lot of hedge funds? Or am I wrong and there are hedge funds who do trade these markets? Is there a reason why they may not do so, for instance that the commodity trading firms like Cargill, Louis Dreyfus etc are on the ground trading the physical and therefore have such a large edge that its seen as not worthwhile to try and compete?