[Noob Post] Can we consider Dow's head and shoulder?

[bchung3000]

Sorry Im not sure how I should post with images. I'd try to describe it...
19/01/2010 left shoulder
26/04/2010 head
21/06/2010 right shoulder.

Is it considered a head and shoulder?

Brian

ok i just see the attachment button. let me try!

 

[bj139]

Looks like a head and shoulders to me and probably to 95% of the traders out there as well. So, what percentage of traders are going short based on this and what percentage of traders know that everyone can see the head and shoulders and are going long because so many others are short? I wish I knew how much money was bet each way as well as how much sideline money was waiting to go in. If there was an overwhelming amount one way I would go the opposite way.

 

[bj139]

It looks like SP1040 must hold for the head and shoulders to be false and the market to go up. I guess that makes sense since if 1040 holds the only other direction is up If 1040 is broken for a day or two or three then the downside target would be around SP853. Just my 2 cents, if I still have that much after trading

 

[bchung3000]

It looks like SP1040 must hold for the head and shoulders to be false and the market to go up. I guess that makes sense since if 1040 holds the only other direction is up If 1040 is broken for a day or two or three then the downside target would be around SP853. Just my 2 cents, if I still have that much after trading

yeah..totally agree with you.
It is now at 1048. Hopefully this head and shoulder is false.

Anyway I wonder why we are the only traders discussing about this. isnt it a place for discussion? =D

 

[justtradin]

Feels false.

JT

 

[bchung3000]

Best if it touches the support/neckline and bounce up like a hammer =D

 

[bj139]

I think we will go lower; only because I had a strong urge to jump in and go long after the close. My feelings are usually dead wrong.

 

[dpinpon]

Geting a look at the monthly chart osc, we see lots of divergences, so maybe neckline wont stand. But, who knows?

 

[bchung3000]

Geting a look at the monthly chart osc, we see lots of divergences, so maybe neckline wont stand. But, who knows?

Looks like the trend is going to determine itself tonight. with s&p already touching the neckline and few more points for the Dow..

We have to wait for the confirmation still, would day trading be a better choice, at least for now?

 

[bchung3000]

looks like the price likes to stick with the neckline for these few days..zz
I think we should stay out before anything happens should we not?

 

[bj139]

It looks like the market is having trouble going above SP1046.
From my Elliot wave count it looks too early to be at a bottom.
A drop to SP1025 would sure clean out a lot of bulls and make a good uptrend more likely.
I will not make any swing trades now because I don't have any idea which way the market will go for the next 10 days.
I think we are in the first intermediate correction of the bull market which should last throughout the summer; down-up-down-up-down-up-down.
Maybe.

 

[dpinpon]

looks like the price likes to stick with the neckline for these few days..zz
I think we should stay out before anything happens should we not?[/QUOT

Just got in. Agree, staying out 100%, not worthy trying to guess which way is next, too overbought to short the market and no way to be long, pessimism is overwhelming. Fridays payroll # should do the trick, and doesnt seem to be a good one.

 

[cm-phil]

Right on dpinpon. So what to do... especially if you were long before? I'm trying to gauge the market and see if good summer earnings can give it a spark.

 

[dpinpon]

Right on dpinpon. So what to do... especially if you were long before? I'm trying to gauge the market and see if good summer earnings can give it a spark.

Cm-phil, first off, Im no market expertise and would not like to mislead you. I was long before and didnt break even, in fact, I lost money. About quarter earnigs cant be much of a help, I trade off mexican IPC. But if SP neckline is smashed, as it appears to happen anytime soon, you dont want to be long. As I just posted before, Im out of the market 1oo%. There should be a good long entry sign sometime later. Good luck friend.

 

[bj139]

I think tomorrow could be the bottom. Not THE bottom but good for 8 to 10 days up.

 

[bchung3000]

I think tomorrow could be the bottom. Not THE bottom but good for 8 to 10 days up.

I was actually waiting for at least a rally to get out of the market but it looks like it's going to break the neckline to no bottom until it rallies back to the neckline.
Would this assumption make any sense?

 

[bj139]

I am having trouble with this site not responding and then my post is lost. I tried to send a message twice but was unsuccessful. Maybe this time it will work.

I always sell when the market proves me wrong. If I was long NOW would be the time when I know I am wrong. Whenever I held on, further painful losses resulted. Now I sell IMMEDIATELY and plan my next trade.

 

[justtradin]

Adding longs but very selectively selling some of my WFC puts AUG 25 puts 1.75.

JT

 

[bchung3000]

sorry JT what is WFC?

@bj139, i guess this is the psychological part we all must go through..
now we just have to start planning our next trade..SHORT WOOO

Remain optimistic folks

 

[justtradin]

WFC Initiated puts at 26.20 1.19 ACB average cost base

Wells Fargo & Company Common St
(NYSE: WFC)

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