'No indicators' revisited

[SOCRATES]

...or even use a Pal Talk or the t2w chatroom.

The boards weren't really designed for real-time stock plays.

That's not a dig at all - just a suggestion for IMHO a better alternative.

Bramble and finirama, please !
You miss the point I am trying to make.
It HAS TO BE a 1 minute chart with clear numbers please.

This is so that all the PRICES PREDICTED IN ADVANCE OF THEM OCCURRING, AND THE PRECISE TIMES THAT THE ANNOUNCEMTS WERE MADE IN ADVANCE can be INDEPENDENTLY AUDITED IMPARTIALLY AND VERIFIED, Bramble please !

Are you trying to wind me up or what ?

Exact times to the minute cannot be verified using a 5 min chart. PERIOD !

I am getting annoyed now ! I am beginning to think you arae doing this deliberately.

And not in a chat room either, and this is not a real time stock plays as you call it,
but future developments announced in advance, which is something very different indeed.

There are many darksiders who are very interested in this I am sure.

Any more of this nonsense and I promise you I will submerge and circulate all of this
privately, and only to those I choose.

That is all.

 

[Rognvald]

China,

That is a very helpful and a most considerate & sensitive offer. It would give consistency to any sharing and learning that follows. It is easy to draw and write on another person's chart using Paint (or similar) and Word. Contributors can then post their own views/findings on a standard background/format/timeframe. That makes comparison and debate much easier and more informed. What do others feel?

If others wish it too then the only request I would make (if you were prepared to accomodate it )would be to use single colour bars and volume as I am trying to accustom myself to this discipline in an attempt to look more closely at what the price and volume and elapsed time are saying..It would also be helpful for it to be as high contrast as possible to allow the widest range of people who wish to take part to do so.

 

[china white]

1 minute is perfectly fine by me Socrates

single colour bars r also fine, Rognvald.

so shall we do it this way, if every1 agrees? If there is a concern this thread is going to get overloaded with my charts I can publish them under my "Trading ES" thread and we can refer to them here.

Socrates, I am OVERKEEN to c yr analysis. Like I said I cannot quite quantify my gut feeling - but it is telling me it is art I want (and need) to master.

 

[SOCRATES]

1 minute is perfectly fine by me Socrates

single colour bars r also fine, Rognvald.

so shall we do it this way, if every1 agrees? If there is a concern this thread is going to get overloaded with my charts I can publish them under my "Trading ES" thread and we can refer to them here.

Socrates, I am OVERKEEN to c yr analysis. Like I said I cannot quite quantify my gut feeling - but it is telling me it is art I want (and need) to master.

That's right china, but you are a professional and you are able to recognise what is and what is not but I am getting fed up with incessant irrelvant interruptions and nonsense.
After a time it ceases to be entertaining and then becomes tedious.
I get the idea that there are people prepared to post ANYTHING just so that their names appear on the thread.

 

[china white]

one more quick thing - sorry totally slipped me mind

we want real-time analysis, so presumably we want several snapshots during the day, don't we? if so at what 'frequency" shall I be posting 1 min charts? or several a day at some key time pivots? pls lemme know.

 

[SOCRATES]

one more quick thing - sorry totally slipped me mind

we want real-time analysis, so presumably we want several snapshots during the day, don't we? if so at what 'frequency" shall I be posting 1 min charts? or several a day at some key time pivots? pls lemme know.

OK I will let you know in good time. All of it has to be 1 minute, in order to verify the validity of what is being displayed.

 

[TheBramble]

Are you trying to wind me up or what ?

I am getting annoyed now ! I am beginning to think you arae doing this deliberately.

Any more of this nonsense and I promise you I will submerge and circulate all of this
privately, and only to those I choose.

Socrates, I'm not sure why you would think I would be trying to wind you up. I'm a little confused as to what you're talking about and why you are so apparently annoyed at my suggestion.

You were commenting that the 60 second restriction on posting to to the thread was a problem for you in what you were attempting to do.

I proposed what I felt was a solution to that problem.

If you wish to circulate information privately then do so. Set up an invitation only forum and invite only those who you feel are worthy.

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates, I'm not sure why you would think I would be trying to wind you up. I'm a little confused as to what you're talking about and why you are so apparently annoyed at my suggestion.

You were commenting that the 60 second restriction on posting to to the thread was a problem for you in what you were attempting to do.

I proposed what I felt was a solution to that problem.

If you wish to circulate information privately then do so. Set up an invitation only forum and invite only those who you feel are worthy.

Bramble please, 1 minute is the lowest denomination of time period above tick.
The T2W site prints the time the message was posted at the top left hand corner of the post.
I have a stopwatch, and checking against a Patek Philippe Marine Chronometer which is accurate to 3seconds a year and against the Speaking Clock the T2W time logging is reliable to within 18 seconds, although this varies during the day and night perhaps due to traffic.
This is good enough for the practical purpose of logging announcements in advance of the event and for the idea to be accepted and also verified against independed and private charts.
The 60 second restriction poses a problem in posting in that once a post is made even if you have another ready to go you have to wait for the 60 seconds to elapse.
As all of this flows very quicky indeed and there is no time to alter a commentary, because altering a commentary defeats the object. All of this is difficult enough to multitask, without what you may consider to be a helpful suggestion but is not, because it defeats the object, as a consequence of you not having on board the correct information and criteria boundaries in order to arrive at conclusions. That is why you annoyed me, because both of you jump in without considering the consequences of making suggestions without consultation.
It has to be seen that the price is announced in net present time but occurs in net future time.
That is the object of the excercise.

 

[SOCRATES]

No Socrates I do not know what the consequences are but I do know that with the benefit of hindsight a story can be told to fit the facts.

I look forward to you telling the story before it occurs.

First consult posts numbers 705 and 709 on this thread.
There you will see details that will interest you.
Then examine the progress of the excercise bar by bar price by price, minute by minute, and ,
when you have done that against the chart, then you will be satisfied none of this is nonsense.

And in addition if you read the posts immediately above (774 clarifies) to get a grip on what it is we are talking about, so that further risk of hindsight curvefit can be eliminated.

Any more ?

 

[SOCRATES]

I was trading the dax on the day you conducted your exercise and feel that the moves were pretty obvious.

I do'nt believe that any of this is nonsense, ie what you were doing when calling the dax. It's your experience , sixth sense, call it what you will . But your explanation of the daily chart did not convince me.

What daily chart are you now talking about ?
We are talking of a chart with 1 minute bars, not a daily chart at all.
For your information, a chart clocked every minute is called a 1 min chart, this is regardless as to whether it is 1 hour, 80 mins or 1 day or 2 days displayed.
But I am pleased that at least you are able to recognise the existence of what you call
"sixth sense."

 

[SOCRATES]

#744 is an an analysis of a daily chart

Well you analyse yourself and see if you can do better than all of us.

 

[SOCRATES]

Well, twenty minutes have elapsed and you have gone very quiet.
Why don't you let us have your synopsis, bar by bar and see what conclusions you
are capable to present to this audience. We await developments with interest.
I have given you 20 mins. This is a very long time in any trader's day.
If you are trying to stretch my tolerance and patience you are doing a good job of it.
I expect you to now demonstrate that you merit this attention you have attracted.

(prepared at 1105 and transmitted at 1125 precisely)

 

[SOCRATES]

Relax Socrates, I have no intention of stealing your "thunder"

It is not a matter of thunder, Harry P , here we have serious audience, world wide, watching.
If you make statements you have the responisility to the audience, to back them up.
Many of these people are beginners, you understand ? Many are top drawer technicians.
Beginners must not be confused. Everything has to be explained very clearly.
Therefore if you do not agree, I am not satisfied with a throwawy statement that
confuses the audience. If you are going to make statements to contradict what is
patently obvious, you owe it to yourself if to no one else, to explain your alternative
hypothesis to the same standard, or even better if possible to the one laid out
for worldwide examination. Many of the subscibers to this website are truly
world class technicians and traders. They are busy, driven, hardened professionals.
That is what I am trying to tell you without telling you as you should by now have
"clocked it".
That is all.

 

[SOCRATES]

The time now is 1208, and I perfectly well know what is going to develop from a technical point of view, that is obvious even to the most undeveloped of traders. Now I wanted to pursue all of this not from a technical viewpoint at all but from a biomind viewpoint, and now as a result of all this schemozzle you have strirred up, my biomind faculty is temporaily disabled, thus denying to an avid audience another demonstration of futurolgical ability. Therefore I am running my pozzie purely technically until this disablement clears up. There you have it.

 

[SOCRATES]

The time now is 1208, and I perfectly well know what is going to develop from a technical point of view, that is obvious even to the most undeveloped of traders. Now I wanted to pursue all of this not from a technical viewpoint at all but from a biomind viewpoint, and now as a result of all this schemozzle you have strirred up, my biomind faculty is temporaily disabled, thus denying to an avid audience another demonstration of futurolgical ability. Therefore I am running my pozzie purely technically until this disablement clears up. There you have it.

Sorry now down periscope until later.

 

[SOCRATES]

None of this is silly. In fact it is very serious.
I have laid out in mechanical form a complete explanation to what is shown on a chart that shows the time the price and the volume.
This explanation is challenged, and I don't mind. In fact I welcome it.
But the alternative is not enough, because it leaves a lot unsaid, to the detriment of all of us who are interested as to what possible alternative detailed explanation can be offered.
I would expect a detailed explanation of at least the same detail and quality, and it does not matter
what combinations of factors are used, price and time, price and volume, price and intent, volume and intent, intent and time, but let us have a reasoned, structured, alternative explanation tha can stand up to detailed analysis that anyone can follow, please. Or is that too much to expect ?

 

[SOCRATES]

OK, no response.

I am willing to let you off the hook a little bit.

There are six kinds of volume:~
Causative.
Consequential.
Inadvertent.
Mixing.
Delayed
and Rogue.

There are 5 kinds of time:~
Past time.
Net past time.
Net present time.
Net future time.
Future time.

There is only one kind of price:~
The latest price that anyone is willing to pay for anything.

Now go on..........

 

[SOCRATES]

The time is 1400 hrs. And there is a deathly silence.
You would all benefit by following the posts in Days of stopping out question, so you can verify
alongside a chart what it is that is being discussed here, before we were interrupted.

 

[clylbw]

Tweezer Bottom Variant?

Hi SOCRATES,

Many thanks to all of your posts. I have found them, particularly those on volume, very intriguing.

I wonder whether you would consider today NQ's 14:40 and 14:45 5-minute bars, highlighted by the orange lines in the attached chart, as forming a tweezer bottom variant?

I remember you said the second bar of such a pattern should be up in lighter volume, but for this one the second bar actually went up on heavier volume. Anyway, I took it as a kind of variant of the original pattern and went long accordingly, thus capturing the up move from the beginning. Thanks indeed.

 

[clylbw]

Side Note

This post is actually a side note, not directly related to price-action-only trading.

I have just finished suffering from International Finance, during which our two professors had for the past whole year tried to stuck into our heads ideas such as market efficiency, purchasing power parity and other parity conditions. The effect? I nearly went asleep during each lecture.

I do realise that a great part of traders and investors do not beat the market in the long run. However, how am I supposed to believe in Random Walk when certain patterns such as the tweezer bottom (cheers SOCRATES) has happened again and again and made me money during the past month alone? Maybe all those great theories do hold in the long run, but, as it is said, in the long run we are all dead, who cares?????

(Sorry just being frustrated. Please ignore the post if so wished.)