'No indicators' revisited

[china white]

alr8 - my shop is getting shut for the yr. happy NY to all!

 

[sandpiper]

China,

All the best m8. A happy and properous new year to you.

 

[a320]

while its quiet :cheesy:

Commitment of traders reports released on the 29th

S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/22/03 |
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00) OPEN INTEREST: 603,392
COMMITMENTS
50,109 110,876 5,680 400,066 405,240 455,855 521,796 147,537 81,596

CHANGES FROM 12/16/03 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -95,982)
-5,428 8,663 -17,107 -48,037 -55,430 -70,572 -63,874 -25,410 -32,108

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
8.3 18.4 0.9 66.3 67.2 75.5 86.5 24.5 13.5

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 171)
22 28 15 93 65 129 94


E-MINI S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/22/03 |
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
($50 X S&P 500 INDEX) OPEN INTEREST: 337,557
COMMITMENTS
76,390 73,936 7,118 128,801 213,021 212,309 294,075 125,248 43,482

CHANGES FROM 12/16/03 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -374397)
-70,584 -145494 -50,396 -201472 -148295 -322452 -344185 -51,945 -30,212

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
22.6 21.9 2.1 38.2 63.1 62.9 87.1 37.1 12.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 159)
48 34 12 45 51 98 92

Happy new year everyone

CJ

 

[a320]

Some have asked what I meant by the 2 bar momentum break I posted on an early chart.. so I'll explain Sometimes its also called a 2 bar swing chart

When momentum is up---The current bar makes a higher high without crossing below the low of the past 2 bars.

When momentum is down--The current bar makes a lower low without crossing above the high of the past 2 bars.

Hope this Helps

CJ

 

[a320]

A note on Outside Reversal Bars with the 2 bar swing...

In the case of an outside reversal bar with a close outside the area of the prior bar the momentum direction has changed without taking into account the prior 2nd bar.

CJ

 

[a320]

Its a pleasure to see how many are willing to contribute their knowledge to these boards... There are priceless bits of info on here which you may only find after years of looking..it really will speed up the learning curve for any newbies looking to learn the patten skills. I have not come a cross a board so open..its a good job only Skim and I read it :cheesy:

Cheers CJ

 

[Skimbleshanks]

I like looking at the pictures too. :cheesy:

 

[ford]

Hi,

I have annotated a chart of the NYE trading session with my interpretation of the points of reversals in 2 bar momentum. I would appreciate it if you could check it for me.. :cheesy:

Just a few notes on 'meaning' to save any misunderstanding. U means 'up momentum' and D means 'down momentum' and the coloured bars are simply placed above the bars which I have interpreted as being the points of change in momentum.

If I have it right, it appears that the 2 bar momentum 'rule' is better as a confirmation tool rather than one to base entries on?

edit: heres another one, I believe I have mis interpreted the rules of the method the first time around.. this one is the *changes* in momo direction from the proceeding direction rather than marking on continuations of the momo.. red = down, sea green (or whatever lol) = up ..

apologises for confusion!

 

[hampy]

Skim, A couple of questions if you don't mind.
1) Can the fresh air around the legs of a dbl bottom theory also be applied at a dbl top?
2) I notice that you make all bars the same colour. Are their any disadvantages with choosing different cols for up + down bars.
Thanks a lot
hampy

 

[Skimbleshanks]

The more fresh air, the stronger the pattern, no matter what it is. So, double tops/bottoms, head&shoulders, and V bottoms (these are reasonably rare, but just take a look at the 9-11 V bottom to see what I mean about fresh air fuelling a subsequent rise).

I tend to use bars of the same colour because it is easier to see, but sometimes I add the 'down' colour (which is not too different to the 'up' colour) just to help identify the Elliotts, particularly for posting here.

If you use two colours, you may find yourself reacting more when there is a pullback because you are 'reading' the colour change, not the bar formation itself.

 

[qaza]

skim

has this dbl bottom got enuf air ?

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Depends on if it makes a HH on the 10 min, or turns and carries on down.

There's a tiny gap still to be filled, so watch and see what happens.

Don't forget to look at the bigger picture - looks as if we're on the head of a head & shoulders. So we may rise from here to form the right shoulder. Who knows?

 

[qaza]

the time of day is not great

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Forgot to add, we've just formed a head & shoulders (triple top) on the 10 min, and the target for that is around 1111.5, which has now been met.

 

[qaza]

Depends on if it makes a HH on the 10 min, or turns and carries on down.

B]

which means a move above 15.75 ?

 

[anmolway]

Skim when these 2 bar momentum trades with loads of air don't work, ie when they produce a signal to either buy or sell and then reverse - when do you get out. Presuming a stop loss would be past the extremes of the top or bottom?

 

[Skimbleshanks]

which means a move above 15.75 ?

No, 1114.0

The last 10 min bar went from 1112 to 1113.75. So this bar will need to break above that (1114).

Notice that the 'fresh air' is now only 1 point - easier to see on the 5 min chart, and she's looking quite sluggish, not exactly bouncy and full of the joys of life. And this could also be a small right shoulder.

 

[qaza]

Ok ...............I geddit.................thx

 

[Skimbleshanks]

anmolway:

Not too sure what you mean. Is it possible for you to post a chart explaining?

 

[anmolway]

Sorry skim, i will try better. say for example now we buy above 1114, but it fails to go any further. Instead es turns back down and towards the low of the day. Would your stop loss be just past the low of the day?

thanks