Nfp

fastsnail

Newbie
7 0
SO today I will trade on news, namely NFP Non Farm Payrolls, after watching the market for a couple of months I know there will be a big reaction / volatility in USD pairs, so today I have opened a sell position 40 lots USDRUB.
I have looked at the market with my unskilled eye and have noted that the USDRUB has peaked and is heading down in MT4 MN view, and in MT4 W1 view the chart also looks like it has entered a downward trend, in the MT4 D1 view the chart shows a wave like tsunami form from beginning Jan 2014 and crashing onto the beach May 2014 and running in land but not gaining height and bringing us to our our present position as seen on MT4 D1 view where the market is ready to run flat in my opinion, for the next month, but NFP will mess that up. In the MT4 H4 view I see a peak again on the chart and it is already dropping and again on the H1 view we are seeing a crest of the wave, tsunami I call it breaking down onto the beach and heading in land but staying flat. H30 view and I see again flat water running in land and possible downward movement towards the NFP. ok won't bore you with the M15, M5, M1 views but lets say that in my untrained view I am seeing down and I am going to sell and place a T/P.
2014.06.06 07.29 open position, type sell, size 40, symbol usdrub, price 34.62790, T/P 34.55264, current price 34.66632, commission will be -240, profit currently looks like negative - 2660.32 approx.
:clap: bring on the NFP's (actually have another open position to sell in usdrub)

Ok altered one T/P and manually closed the other but profitable on both positions :)
18829539 2014.06.06 10:21:17 buy 40.00 usdrub 34.65954 0.00000 34.68399 2014.06.06 10:52:54 34.67451 -240.00 0.00 0.00 1 027.14
18829524 2014.06.06 10:21:05 sell 40.00 usdrub 34.65249 0.00000 34.63347 2014.06.06 13:33:29 34.63347 -240.00 0.00 0.00 1 305.53
 
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honeill

Established member
624 3
The ADP data were much worse than expected. Market expectations were for a 210,000 reading, but it was only 179,000.
So the expectations for the NFP today are 218,000 and I think they will be 187,000 worse than expected.
EURUSD, GOLD should rise and the Indexes should fall!!
Could this be a sign of a potential correction in the markets?
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
The ADP data were much worse than expected. Market expectations were for a 210,000 reading, but it was only 179,000.
So the expectations for the NFP today are 218,000 and I think they will be 187,000 worse than expected.
EURUSD, GOLD should rise and the Indexes should fall!!
Could this be a sign of a potential correction in the markets?

Interesting thoughts

The fact that the EU - EJ -EA etc have been falling since the Opens of today - suggests to me - an off load ready for more buys this afternoon

I reckon though - as first news of yesterday - both way spikes might be on the cards as well - as players just do not want other traders catching on to any good trades

So may be a drop down to even 3580 or 50 and then another go up over 3670

Trouble is after yesterday and looking at the last few years of NFP - the moves are no longer 150 -250 pippers - more likely 100 -150 ones - so cannot see 3700 or 3500 today - but I just hope I am wrong and we get further surprises like yesterday - I like them like that

Good Luck with your plan

Regards


F
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,461 2,879
Both the CPI figure and interest rate cut was well known and expected by markets. I think out of 60 forecasters only 2 was not expecting the rate cut.

Most of the move on the rate reduction re: EURUSD was also factored in with EU falling from 1.39 -> 1.36. Other than the knee jerk reaction and market playing silly buggers we ended up above 1.36. However, in the next few weeks/months EU will fall to around 1.30-32 imo.

What ever I think - I now recognise markets only want to hear good news and they will be discounting bad news. Hence, where we are today, but I'm sure they are right and I'm wrong in my biased opinion :cheesy:

I reckon shorts will be squeezed until they pip before the next big drop so onwards and forwards for a lil while longer. (y)
 
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