Newbie having life changing results

I

Iconoclast1978

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Good evening ladies and gentleman,

I have been trading and investing now for just over 6 months. It has been a roller coaster ride as I dove right in with my own money; circa £75k.

My investments are currently lacking majorly and it is totally unknown how they will fair. I am 90% crypto in this regard and currently taking a huge hit due to the drop in the market.

I have immersed myself in everything trade related and the penny has dropped the last few weeks. I have been consistently winning 60-70 percent of my day trades which are commodities or indices mainly with leverage up to x20 and clearing roughly £500 per day. On many occasion I lost out on huge potential gains and I have been exercising discipline both with regard to cutting loses short but also, taking gains modestly and closing each day green instead of going for the big bucks.

I am currently examining the notion of going round the world with my wife and daughter and trading from hotels as obviously we can afford to "IF" this can be maintained.

My question is this; Is it possible I'm just getting lucky and this dream is going to end? Ever where I read that only 1 in 20 day traders are successful and even fewer attain the kind of gains I am making. Certainly not in this time scale. I just wonder whether I need to pinch myself and wake up or something because though it did seem impossible for some months, all of a sudden something clicked and I can intuit my way through most trades with profit.

This is not a brag. I hope it doesn't come across that way. I'm just aware that I'm free, financially and with time for the first time in my life and I'm scared reality is going to come crashing down.

Thank you.
 
Definitely time to have a cool head and assess. The numbers dont lie but you need to understand why this is happening as it feels like you dont really have a logical basis for the results. This may put your mind at ease
 
LuckyMac said:
Definitely time to have a cool head and assess. The numbers dont lie but you need to understand why this is happening as it feels like you dont really have a logical basis for the results. This may put your mind at ease
Click to expand...
I agree. I've gone from thinking day trading is literally impossible and pulling my hair out to having a real sense of the thing. 10 trades executed today won 9. Best day trading so far and I have a hangover.

Wish I knew exactly what was working but as I say it's just a feeling that I've developed. My concern is I'll wake up one day and the feeling will be gone and I'll have no clue how to get it back. Probably I'm doing a hundred small things right.
 
It happens with newbies frequently but not be worried and must continue with hard work to become successful and one day you will be a good trader.
 
Do you have a pre-written plan or strategy that you are using? How do you determine your entry and exit points? Do you have a trading journal? Sorry I'm asking so many questions. But - even though it sounds like this isn't just luck - I think it is important to find out why you are succeeding so that you can replicate that in the future and keep being successful even if market circumstances change.
Also, make sure to also look at your results over longer periods of time. It can happen that you close some days in red or have a smaller percentage of winning trades, but you are still profitable overall. I also recommend the book "One Good Trade" by Mike Bellafiore, if you're interested.
 
WalletInvestor said:
Do you have a pre-written plan or strategy that you are using? How do you determine your entry and exit points? Do you have a trading journal? Sorry I'm asking so many questions. But - even though it sounds like this isn't just luck - I think it is important to find out why you are succeeding so that you can replicate that in the future and keep being successful even if market circumstances change.
Also, make sure to also look at your results over longer periods of time. It can happen that you close some days in red or have a smaller percentage of winning trades, but you are still profitable overall. I also recommend the book "One Good Trade" by Mike Bellafiore, if you're interested.
Click to expand...
No worries re the questions.

This is what I tend to do.. generally!

I spend all my spare time taking in a fairly constant flow of geopolitical events. Consequently, I don't tend to get involved with businesses as I have not got the time to delve into the fundamental minutiae that that involves. Tesla is a great example just today sliding a whopping 7% despite turning out awesome figures. All the analysis in the world would not have led you to conclude to short Tesla today.

I focus mainly on indices and commodities. Nasdaq, FTSE100, U.S Oil is my favourite. As mercenary as it, well, frankly as mercenary as it is; Russia amassing troops on the border is very useful. After getting a feel for where my bias is going to lie, depending on fundamentals and geopolitics I decide a likely short or long position. Then I work through the charts from 5 years down to 5 mins drawing in support/ resistance lines and trends.

Then I wait patiently for a trend reversal or a pull back using my bias and technical analysis. I use some technical indicators to provide fortitude in my decision making but I absolutely do not rely on them and often outright ignore them oftentimes. Those that I do use are moving average lines, RSI, Macd, and fisher.

I don't set a stop loss. If I do it's only when I'm massively in the green and personally watching the trade. I DO close trades manually at a loss and forgo emotional involvement. I don't panic when I go red and I will wait sometimes 500 dollars into the red before closing. I only ever run x2 trades max simultaneously.

I assume at every moment it's all going to go to shit.
 
Last edited:
Ah. Sorry, I don't have a journal. I have planned on starting one but I am reluctant to do anything different ATM.
 
Iconoclast1978 said:
I agree. I've gone from thinking day trading is literally impossible and pulling my hair out to having a real sense of the thing. 10 trades executed today won 9. Best day trading so far and I have a hangover.

Wish I knew exactly what was working but as I say it's just a feeling that I've developed. My concern is I'll wake up one day and the feeling will be gone and I'll have no clue how to get it back. Probably I'm doing a hundred small things right.
Click to expand...

Really happy to hear you having great success btw :) i would caution that you need a large sample size to make sure you're edge is correct. Over 100 at least. Look back at your trades and other trades that would have met your rules see how they go. If you do have solid results youve a nice edge but be prepared for losing streaks. It is all about probabilities and that means random distribution comes in even if you have 7/10 success rate that doesnt mean every 10 trades you'll win 7 its over a longer period. So you could have 3/10 for a week/5/10 and then 10/10. It will all even out to your backtesting results over time so its so key to make sure you know why you are getting the results you are
 
LuckyMac said:
Really happy to hear you having great success btw :) i would caution that you need a large sample size to make sure you're edge is correct. Over 100 at least. Look back at your trades and other trades that would have met your rules see how they go. If you do have solid results youve a nice edge but be prepared for losing streaks. It is all about probabilities and that means random distribution comes in even if you have 7/10 success rate that doesnt mean every 10 trades you'll win 7 its over a longer period. So you could have 3/10 for a week/5/10 and then 10/10. It will all even out to your backtesting results over time so its so key to make sure you know why you are getting the results you are
Click to expand...
Thank you for your input.

I have compiled a journal set up now which I will start using, along with a spreadsheet for imputing various data.

That losing streak you mentioned happened this week. I entered positions on natural gas at x10 leverage and it took me on a few wild rides where I failed to be disciplined and it cost me dearly.

Today is another day. I have learned from my mistakes.

Thanks again.
 
Iconoclast1978 said:
Thank you for your input.

I have compiled a journal set up now which I will start using, along with a spreadsheet for imputing various data.

That losing streak you mentioned happened this week. I entered positions on natural gas at x10 leverage and it took me on a few wild rides where I failed to be disciplined and it cost me dearly.

Today is another day. I have learned from my mistakes.

Thanks again.
Click to expand...

Of course, anytime. That's what this forum is for. Keep disciplined and keep records and you'll be fine. Best of luck in your trading
 
It's fine to feel excited about these runs. But also realise this could be a good run of variance given the time you have been trading for. If it's working, keep going and time will tell if the strategy holds up.
 
I think it's very normal to be fearful because income isn't always guaranteed. Still, there are successful traders and you could be the one out of the twenty that does make it.
 
HeavLeighGill said:
I think it's very normal to be fearful because income isn't always guaranteed. Still, there are successful traders and you could be the one out of the twenty that does make it.
Click to expand...
Yes it's certainly not guaranteed that's for sure. I'm used to that though as I run my own business. I am hoping that trading allows me to close the business or sell it as I want to spend more time with my children and I'm tired of 80 hour weeks.

Had a good day trading today. Kept things simple. Kept my risk down. Took $479. Long way to go to make up for yesterday though.. ;-)
 
Iconoclast1978 said:
No worries re the questions.

This is what I tend to do.. generally!

I spend all my spare time taking in a fairly constant flow of geopolitical events. Consequently, I don't tend to get involved with businesses as I have not got the time to delve into the fundamental minutiae that that involves. Tesla is a great example just today sliding a whopping 7% despite turning out awesome figures. All the analysis in the world would not have led you to conclude to short Tesla today.

I focus mainly on indices and commodities. Nasdaq, FTSE100, U.S Oil is my favourite. As mercenary as it, well, frankly as mercenary as it is; Russia amassing troops on the border is very useful. After getting a feel for where my bias is going to lie, depending on fundamentals and geopolitics I decide a likely short or long position. Then I work through the charts from 5 years down to 5 mins drawing in support/ resistance lines and trends.

Then I wait patiently for a trend reversal or a pull back using my bias and technical analysis. I use some technical indicators to provide fortitude in my decision making but I absolutely do not rely on them and often outright ignore them oftentimes. Those that I do use are moving average lines, RSI, Macd, and fisher.

I don't set a stop loss. If I do it's only when I'm massively in the green and personally watching the trade. I DO close trades manually at a loss and forgo emotional involvement. I don't panic when I go red and I will wait sometimes 500 dollars into the red before closing. I only ever run x2 trades max simultaneously.

I assume at every moment it's all going to go to shit.
Click to expand...

I might be a little biased towards planning and tracking everything and setting exact targets because that's the way I feel in control, but it sounds like you are going about it in a very smart way regardless. Just make sure to manage your risks so that if you're right and it does go to shit, you don't wipe out too much of your previous profits.
I also read in one of your later posts that you are starting to track some data, which is good to hear. I wish you the best going forward!
 
Your results are not atypical at all well done 👏
Just to keep a level head I would suggest journal your trades and ifyour setups are based on logic not hunchs then keep going my friend
 
Just a quick update that you may find interesting....

I upped the anti and started adding a zero to my trades roughly and for a week or so my daily income went from 100s a day to 1000s. I was ecstatic. I did have to leave a few leveraged positions open over night and also I risked going heavily in the red on a number of occasions but I made A LOT of money. To give some perspective one evening whilst having dinner with my wife in a pub I checked my phone to see how my trades were doing and my TP on oil and Nasdaq had both been hit making me $2800.

Then it all went downhill fast....

I basically blew 3/4 quarters of my account. I took solace in 2 things. One, I knew how I'd been idiotic and 2 me, my wife and our 1 year old weren't sheltering from rocket attacks in the middle of an invasion.

What happened was I felt certain the markets would rocket on oil and gold and natural gas, which it initially did and I massively over leveraged and exposed myself. I didn't have the liquidity to hold positions open and SL's were hit. I then doubled down assuming it must be profit taking and prices would return as demand is surely increased with supply down and I sold a lot of crypto at a loss to reinvest.

I basically went from using successful technical anlaysis to massively relying on my intuition and what I thought were the fundamentals of war.

I feel incredibly dumb and ashamed. I'd been up near 24 hours straight and my thinking was chaotic and incoherent.

Conclusion; I have drafted a spreadsheet which doubles as a journal. It's basically a day trading fixed 3:1 profit loss sheet with small positions and limited leverage, a 2nd sheet for trades with less fixed parameters potentially higher TPs etc. And a 3rd sheet for thinking out trades and listing them with bias and tech analysis etc. This 3rd doodling spreadsheet's trades gets moved over to 1st and 2nd as and when.

I am developing a set of rules also. Limited position size with exceptions, limited leverage, limited trades and timing of trades etc etc etc. All the rules have exceptions but the exceptions are limited. This is ongoing.

I'm really now under pressure with my trading and have little room for failure.. Thank you all for your feedback. And yes, I know I am an ass...
 
Trading is a lifestyle choice.......ive been trading since the early 80s and learn noew stuff every day

I love it .....its in my DNA

N
 
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