New Trend for Gold?

[Hook Shot]

Contrarian - I wonder where you can get silver bullion from at sensible prices.......in the next gold rush (if there is one) this stuff will be priceless! Big Money is probably shorting this trend but will buy back when the XXXX hits the fan maybe next year ....
They say Silver is rarer than Gold at least thats what cyberspace says.

Hook Shot

 

[gugaplex]

Not so fast Guga - Hook Shot thinks we might be surprised by inflation based on the gradual rise in yields recently..... and the comments of some contrarians I follow. Those guys indicate this "Fed's done" talk could be premature - in any case the consensus thinks that way so I'm wary. As for Lend and Drct they look interesting as dead cat plays maybe more - so thanks for that.

Hook Shot

Hook, in case you care, I sold LEND today at $36.70 for an 18% gain in couple weeks. Still holding DRCT (expecting mid $15's short-term).

Good Luck...

 

[Hook Shot]

Guga sincere congratulations well spotted and executed. Also good call on Oil 3m ago here we are at low 60's.....

Have you got any more like that up your sleeve ? I need a (decent)win badly..... Actually, I'm okay ...... just!

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

Guga sincere congratulations well spotted and executed.
Hook Shot

 

[gugaplex]

IMH is looking decent at $9. They trade at like 0.58 x's book, have a PEG ratio of 0.60, and pay an 11% dividend.

 

[TopIQ]

GOLD is in a medium term (weekly chart) downtrend, but the long term trend is still UP as long as the price doesn't fall below 550! Major Support is at 450. No support is at ZERO ... HEHEHE Just kidding!

 

[Pippppin]

Long term "trends" can be highly misleading. Gold has made a key reversal on the monthly chart

 

[gugaplex]

Guga sincere congratulations well spotted and executed. Also good call on Oil 3m ago here we are at low 60's.....

Have you got any more like that up your sleeve ? I need a (decent)win badly..... Actually, I'm okay ...... just!

Hook Shot

Another long-term pick for ya, Broadcom (BRCM). Trading at high $20's today. Stock is VERY volatile, but if you can stomach it, it should be in the $50's within a year or so. Do your research and check the charts....

 

[Hook Shot]

Guga - shame you weren't as good on grass .........

I here by the by that inflation will be more "sticky" than the bond market is thinking.... If these madmen are right ......

Everyone is getting so bearish on Gold but...whilst they may be 100% correct - what if they're wrong..... Could Gold be in a bull market and perhaps a bubble - God Forbid! If the latter is correct then it will be like the late 90's.... IF that plays out then there is a bundle of money to be made playing this bubble when everyone has left it for dead. As you know Guga in bubbles #@$* can trade at silly prices and every idle company becomes a precious metal exploration company - history tells us! Why do I say this ...... reading IMF comments alongside some less public comments of big banking families.

Hook Shot

 

[gugaplex]

Guga - shame you weren't as good on grass .........

I here by the by that inflation will be more "sticky" than the bond market is thinking.... If these madmen are right ......

Everyone is getting so bearish on Gold but...whilst they may be 100% correct - what if they're wrong..... Could Gold be in a bull market and perhaps a bubble - God Forbid! If the latter is correct then it will be like the late 90's.... IF that plays out then there is a bundle of money to be made playing this bubble when everyone has left it for dead. As you know Guga in bubbles #@$* can trade at silly prices and every idle company becomes a precious metal exploration company - history tells us! Why do I say this ...... reading IMF comments alongside some less public comments of big banking families.

Hook Shot

You are correct that assets will be volatile in bubbles, like gold. However, realizing that gold is in a bubble (one that is popping, at that), it would be prudent to make money on the short side rather than the long (or you can buy the U.S. dollar for the long trade if you are scared of shorting). Each bounce in gold should be sold, over the long-term gold should reach mid $400's or less....

 

[andycan]

i trade gold, geometrically we should see below 500 as a minimum

 

[Hook Shot]

First Guga thanks for Imh and chipstock (sounds like a Cramer pick - only joking). $400 ......mmmh! But sure we have what looks like a lower top so perhaps this is a trend down rather than countertrend to be bought.

andycan - geometrically ?? ...and wasn't 400 sort of near where we broke out last year ? I think it will maintain 500 in medium term - I have no positions so I don't mind really.

Hook Shot

 

[TWI]

will be interesting to see what happens here.
Somebody on buy program across base and precious today

 

[andycan]

i should elaborate i see the market structurely and geometrically not trying to sound intellectual but all markets have a geometric signature knowing gold pretty well it loves abc where a and c more often than not are equal thats the simple geometry the structure is that if c=a then that hits the 500 dollar area which is were the approx break outs in 83 and 88 which in turn would be considered long term support which also happens to be balance point of the whole move up

 

[Hook Shot]

Hi twalker - I think oldschoolwaver hinted at some kind of rally in gold ... and whilst I'm at it - you probably noticed vxo gapped down today almost to key 10% level. So perhaps a return to vol is around the corner - bringing a market pbk ?

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

andycan - now I understand at least the basics so you are looking to buy or are you shorting rallies ? how are the legs matching so far a wrt c - could find out but if you're still here ....

Hook Shot

 

[andycan]

well as it stands the c leg needs to break the low of the a to be a genuine c leg im short from 630 at 589 at the moment for traditional pattern traders if you look at the weekly it has a lovely descending triangle which broke around the 615 area that alone targets the 530 area
normally c leg tends to take longer than the a leg to form so twidling my fingers on this one

btw looking at dec contract

regards

 

[Hook Shot]

Gotcha

 

[gugaplex]

First Guga thanks for Imh and chipstock (sounds like a Cramer pick - only joking). $400 ......mmmh! But sure we have what looks like a lower top so perhaps this is a trend down rather than countertrend to be bought.

andycan - geometrically ?? ...and wasn't 400 sort of near where we broke out last year ? I think it will maintain 500 in medium term - I have no positions so I don't mind really.

Hook Shot

Only suggest IMH as small part of portfolio (trading). If it goes south, you can probably still hold on for a while as things moderate. However, total return (including 11% dividend) is likely to out-weigh the risk. As for BRCM, I am long from $20 and $24. Saw $50 and didn't sell (greed). If BRCM hits $50 again I will un-load half my shares. Cramer is a moron and loved BRCM in the high $40's and has bashed recently when it was at $22. You can make a lot of money doing the opposite of him.

Good Luck...

 

[gugaplex]

Bought NADX today at $18.80. Very small company that makes dental implants, fillings, etc. Company has been profitable and has been growing profits and revenues for years. Trades at a big discount to competitors at 1.25 x's Book Value. I see stock trading in the low-mid $20's with 6 months or so.