Hi bud,
The markets run purely on speculation then settle down to the price they should be trading at. This is mostly true in most circumstances.
Picking on one market index(ftse100), you'll notice its comprised of 100 of the uk's top companies, these represent over 82% of the country. If you wish to know the direction then you have to have timing and speculative reports, ie, vodafone being one of the major constituents are selling more phones than usual so you can hazard a guess at when they release their profit/loss accounts it will(if the home work is done right) drive the market upwards due to better than average earnings. However, theres another 99 companies to watch out for and millions of people buying and selling shares all day that will have negative/positive effects to this value.
As the ftse 100 is a weighted index which basically means the bigger the market cap of the company the more it moves the market(weight). Ones to look out for are:
In order of market weight which = influence
1)BP represents around 10% of the index.
2)HSBC represents around 7%
3+4 are glaxo then vodafone weighing in around 5% each.
As you can see this is just the tip of the ice burg but for an example of power, if BP's share price moves just 3%(possible daily average) then the ftse would move 15 points.
To make it easier, start with these top 4 movers then when you know these companies and can speculate on their movements with better than average success then you can look at the others by weight first. This in time will give you an indication of speculation on the ftse 100.
Or failing that, do what most do and take a gamble on gut feeling or one peice of information. Be aware that most jump in and dont make it over a period of time, so, use a period of time before jumping in and make it.
Your future....Your hands.
thanks, also is it best to look at charts as to where I think the market will go? at the moment i seem to be just guessing either up or down on the demos.. I want to know how i would research for example whether the FTSE100 will move down or up....