# NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne

##### Guest
The charts NEVER LIE.

Only people lie, distort the facts, use "spin" and KILL THE MESSENGER.
what u a prophet now r u ?

Note - prophet (not profit )

#### TheRumpledOne

##### Well-known member
Hey! I resemble that! LOL. I trade the Horizontal lines almost exclusively. In the case that Barry cites, I would more than likely not taken the trade. In general "my" rule of thumb is that if price opens near one of the horizontal lines I do not take the trade of that nearest H line. I take the trade on one of the other two lines but not the nearest.
Plus it's not the GBPJPY :cheesy:, that's another reason not to trade LOL

And I close with this for the newbies practice practice practice practice....

Hey careful with that killing the MESSENGER stuff that's my bands name LOL..

#### johnlvs2run

##### Member
Its been a while since I took a look at the statistics regarding consecutive bars. Are you actually saying that after 3 consecutive bars, there's a greater probablity of the 4th bar being the opposite color than the same color ? and if so, by what percentage ?

are you filtering these statistics by time ?
The consecutive bar statistics are always 50/50, red or green for the next one.

I've also been wondering about the correlation per time. For example 3 bars go the same direction 50% longer in time than 2, and 4 bars go the same direction 33% longer in time than 3, though there still seems to be the same 50/50 chance of a change of direction.

#### TheRumpledOne

##### Well-known member
The consecutive bar statistics are always 50/50, red or green for the next one.

I've also been wondering about the correlation per time. For example 3 bars go the same direction 50% longer in time than 2, and 4 bars go the same direction 33% longer in time than 3, though there still seems to be the same 50/50 chance of a change of direction.
That's NOT the point!

The point is whether or not you can take advantage of a MOVEMENT in the opposite direction and waiting for at least 3 consecutive bars seems to give that "edge".

#### fxwinner22

##### Active member
if its 50/50 there is no 'edge'

utter and total rubbish.

#### pierre23

##### Member
I agree with fxwinner22. Having an edge means the odds are in your favor. If there has been 3 green bars in a row 50 times, and 4 green in a row 1 time over, say, 1 week then the odds are not 50/50 when it comes to determining the 4th bar.

If you had those stats would you go LONG on the 4th bar? No. Why? Because you can see over the last week there has only been ONE occurance of 4 green in a row. If it was 50/50 then you might as well get a coin and flip it for every hour, heads for long tails for short. If it was 50/50 then every single strategy and method out there would work only out of luck, right?

#### nunrgguy

##### Well-known member
I'm not certain how the three bar in a row thing would work anyway? The bars don't exist as such and are just pictorial representations of price based on an arbitrary grid... unless everyone else is looking for exactly the same thing, which is why S/R, Fibs etc tend to work, I don't see how it can work being no different to looking at previous runs on a roulette wheel or the lottery...

#### johnlvs2run

##### Member
That's NOT the point!

The point is whether or not you can take advantage of a MOVEMENT in the opposite direction and waiting for at least 3 consecutive bars seems to give that "edge".
The point is that the number of consecutive bars appears to not predict the next color of a bar.

I would agree it's the direction of a movement that appears to do this, i.e. SEEing the movement.
Thus when the bar is moving up, trade up; when the bar's moving down, trade down.

Having an edge means the odds are in your favor. If there has been 3 green bars in a row 50 times, and 4 green in a row 1 time over, say, 1 week then the odds are not 50/50 when it comes to determining the 4th bar.
You've lost me. Post a pic? How often does this happen to you?

The stats show that if you get 3 green bars in a row 50 times, the next bar has a 50/50 chance of being either a green bar or a red bar. The examples on this thread substantiate that you're not getting 49 red bars to follow. You're getting approximately 25 green and 25 red bars to follow.

#### TheRumpledOne

##### Well-known member
johnlvs2run and nunrgguy:

If there are 3 green H1 bars in a row, then look at the new bar. Is there a tail? How long is the tail? That's where the profit is. It's NOT about predicting candle color.

I hope that helps.

johnlvs2run

#### nunrgguy

##### Well-known member
johnlvs2run and nunrgguy:

If there are 3 green H1 bars in a row, then look at the new bar. Is there a tail? How long is the tail? That's where the profit is. It's NOT about predicting candle color.

I hope that helps.
OK. I think what you're basically getting at is that the probability of a retrace on the 4th bar is more likely and you're putting in a countertrend scalp, if you get lucky the move may continue, in which case stops are trailed but your initial TP is to just scalp a few pips, not really a reversal then is it?

#### TheRumpledOne

##### Well-known member

M5 chart with H1 background.

After 3 RED H1 there was a nice Buzzard Reversal trade. Same after 4 RED H1 candles.

#### nunrgguy

##### Well-known member

M5 chart with H1 background.

After 3 RED H1 there was a nice Buzzard Reversal trade. Same after 4 RED H1 candles.
In hindsight or traded? Why didn't you go long after 3 red candles?

#### pierre23

##### Member
Whats to say he didn't go long? Can you not see the long upper wick on the 4th red candle? At some stage after 3 red candles, the 4th one was green, and price was going up. Using the buy zone/psychological lines you would have entered and exited with profit, long before price came back down.

#### fxwinner22

##### Active member
hang on, it retraces after every bar so wheres thesignificance of the 3 red in a row.

again assumption without evidence - and then again the picture is incomplete on the last bar.

Utter rubbish - the chance of the retrace is always 50/50. next you'll ab be quoting tom de mark and his 13 count. yet more rubbish.

At least if you are going to make outlandish claims back it up with some evidence.

even then its rubbish - like saying every seventh ice cream sold is raspberry ripple. Do you lot really want to base your future earnings on this twaddle?

nunrgguy

#### nunrgguy

##### Well-known member
Whats to say he didn't go long? Can you not see the long upper wick on the 4th red candle? At some stage after 3 red candles, the 4th one was green, and price was going up. Using the buy zone/psychological lines you would have entered and exited with profit, long before price came back down.
There's nothing to say he didn't apart from his own reply.:whistling
If you're so certain that's what will happen next time you see 3 alike bars bet the farm on a retrace and become rich.

#### TheRumpledOne

##### Well-known member
hang on, it retraces after every bar so wheres thesignificance of the 3 red in a row.

again assumption without evidence - and then again the picture is incomplete on the last bar.

Utter rubbish - the chance of the retrace is always 50/50. next you'll ab be quoting tom de mark and his 13 count. yet more rubbish.

At least if you are going to make outlandish claims back it up with some evidence.

even then its rubbish - like saying every seventh ice cream sold is raspberry ripple. Do you lot really want to base your future earnings on this twaddle?
PRICE does NOT always retrace every bar.

You don't seem to understand the subtle difference between statistics (history) and probability(future).

The next candle will either be green, red or doji. Saying that it's a 50/50 proposition negates things like supply/demand, support/resistance, buyers/sellers, etc....

Also, you are focusing on the 4th's candles final color which doesn't matter. All that matters is whether or not there was an opportunity to take profit on a reversal trade.

If you don't like this method then don't trade it, it's that simple. Many are trading it successfully and that's all that matters to them.

#### pierre23

##### Member
hang on, it retraces after every bar so wheres thesignificance of the 3 red in a row.

again assumption without evidence - and then again the picture is incomplete on the last bar.

Utter rubbish - the chance of the retrace is always 50/50. next you'll ab be quoting tom de mark and his 13 count. yet more rubbish.

At least if you are going to make outlandish claims back it up with some evidence.

even then its rubbish - like saying every seventh ice cream sold is raspberry ripple. Do you lot really want to base your future earnings on this twaddle?
Did you not read the multiple posts explaining how each candle is NOT 50/50? Clearly YOUR statements are utter rubbish, as if it were 50/50, ALL STRATEGIES WOULD BE BASED ON A 50/50 CHANCE OF WINNING, CORRECT? I DOUBT all these "professional" traders with their 5 indicators all lining up showing a sign to go LONG would go into the trade with massive amounts of coin on a 50/50 chance for price to go their way. It's hardly 5050, there are many factors to consider.

Is statistics not evidence enough? Let alone showing countless trades where opportunity has been given? What more evidence do you want?

How did the 6 MIT students take Vegas for millions? STATISTICS.

#### zupcon

##### Well-known member
How did the 6 MIT students take Vegas for millions? STATISTICS.
All this could quite easily be resolved if statistical proof was provided, and of course, the edge being described here is so simplistic practically anyone could prove or disprove it within a few minutes if they really wanted to (took me all of about 3 minutes with a bit of MQL4 code)

If the edge is statistical as YOU claim, perhaps you could explain why a mechanical implementation of the horizontal line strategy has repeatedly been shown to fail, the other opening range thing he does also fails under rigorous testing. That isn't a criticism of the "system", its just an observation that the so called "statistical edge" simply isn't there. That's why TRO can trade the "psychological levels" at any randomly selected level and obtain similar results.